2/18 Fri - Euchred holding 3 trump

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Dlan
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2/18 Fri - Euchred holding 3 trump

Unread post by Dlan » Sat Feb 19, 2022 12:43 pm




raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:36 pm

Why didn't S4 declare alone on this hand? I find (skipping bids by S1, S2 and S3 in R1):
dealer bids alone: EV = +1.09
dealer bids wp: EV = +0.89
dealer passes : EV = +0.94
Perhaps dealer was bagging and hoping for more points by euchring an opponent in R2, but I find it would have been better still to bid alone, R1.

But on to the hand as it was actually bid. I tested 4 different leads; QC and Left came out on top, and virtually identical results at EV = +0.26. A bit more sweeps and a few more euchres when leading the L (more volatile). QS and 10D leads proved far worse.

On the 4th trick lead, is it better to lead the boss trump (knowing the KS is still out there somewhere [not w/ dealer]) or the weak D (a suit which has yet to be played)? I always find that situation troublesome, and am never sure what to do. It's difficult to simulate since it's relatively infrequent and depends so much on how the hand has been played up to that point.

I think S1 was just a bit unlucky here. Changing either the initial lead or the 4th trick lead would have changed the outcome - for this particular hand. But I don't personally think it was played poorly.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:32 am

raydog wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:36 pm
Why didn't S4 declare alone on this hand? I find (skipping bids by S1, S2 and S3 in R1):
dealer bids alone: EV = +1.09
dealer bids wp: EV = +0.89
dealer passes : EV = +0.94
Perhaps dealer was bagging and hoping for more points by euchring an opponent in R2, but I find it would have been better still to bid alone, R1.

But on to the hand as it was actually bid. I tested 4 different leads; QC and Left came out on top, and virtually identical results at EV = +0.26. A bit more sweeps and a few more euchres when leading the L (more volatile). QS and 10D leads proved far worse.

On the 4th trick lead, is it better to lead the boss trump (knowing the KS is still out there somewhere [not w/ dealer]) or the weak D (a suit which has yet to be played)? I always find that situation troublesome, and am never sure what to do. It's difficult to simulate since it's relatively infrequent and depends so much on how the hand has been played up to that point.

I think S1 was just a bit unlucky here. Changing either the initial lead or the 4th trick lead would have changed the outcome - for this particular hand. But I don't personally think it was played poorly.
On the 4th trick I strongly feel that S1 should be leading trump here, and then hope that his P saves him on 5th street but yeah I have no hard data backing that up. But in my mind, S1 misplayed this hand. I also would've assumed that S1 misplayed his hand by not leading the Left on 1st street but your data shows that assumption to be wrong as there apparently is another viable line. Interesting stuff.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:11 pm

I'm pretty sure this is me.

I had a decision to make knowing the king is still out and possibly in my partners hand. Give my partner a chance to trump it or try to let my partner take with the turned down suit. There are logical arguments both ways. I choose and hoped my partner could trump in. I'm however resolute on my opening lead.

Seat 4 was trying to bag and gave up points. The euchre is irrelevant. S4 lost 2 pts by not going alone.

Tbolt65
Edward

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