2/18 Fri - Coulda, Shoulda blocked, but didn't

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Dlan
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2/18 Fri - Coulda, Shoulda blocked, but didn't

Unread post by Dlan » Sat Feb 19, 2022 12:35 pm




raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:53 pm

I agree S1 "coulda" blocked, but I disagree that they "shoulda" blocked.

About 12% chance of a successful lone by dealer if they pass (EV = -1.19); about a 92% chance or being euchred if they declare (EV = -1.79). It's still early days in this game. Giving up an almost sure 2 pts. (11 out of 12 times) is going to hurt their game-winning prospects far more than perhaps giving up 4 pts. (1 out of 8 times).

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:41 am

Up 4-1 against a Jack upcard with no trump and only 1 off ace, this is ONE of those spots where I'm not budging no matter what a simulator says. I'm donating everytime in this spot. One could argue that my stubborn stance is not rational and I would have no way to counter that.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:44 am

raydog wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:53 pm
I agree S1 "coulda" blocked, but I disagree that they "shoulda" blocked.

About 12% chance of a successful lone by dealer if they pass (EV = -1.19); about a 92% chance or being euchred if they declare (EV = -1.79). It's still early days in this game. Giving up an almost sure 2 pts. (11 out of 12 times) is going to hurt their game-winning prospects far more than perhaps giving up 4 pts. (1 out of 8 times).
That's a bigger EV gap than I would've predicted. -1.19 vs -1.79. Wow. It's very possible--if not probable--I am intuitively undervaluing that singleton green off ace.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:41 pm

I Knew it as soon as I passed. I was hoping they wouldn't go alone. This is a good spot for a donate. However given the situation it wasn't a egregious slip up.

Tbolt65
Edward

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