Weak Pick Ups

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jblowery
Posts: 158
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Weak Pick Ups

Unread post by jblowery » Thu Feb 03, 2022 4:20 pm

Lots of good discussions last few weeks regarding EV scores for weak pickups, such as 2 low trump/2 suited or 2 low trump+ace. I thought I'd include a couple other ones for consideration. I wonder how having jacks influences this. Would you pick up as the dealer to create the following hands? For the following, assume you are picking up a low spade to make spades trump:

Left+1+ace (you have next blocked if you pass).

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)

Left+1

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)

2 low + ace + off-suite jack - so 2 of 3 remaining suites blocked if you pass (no defense against next though):

(Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_J-H) (Card_10-D)

2 low, no ace - off suite jack so 2 of 3 remaining suites blocked if you pass:

(Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_J-H) (Card_10-D) (Card_Q-C)



Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 1522
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:03 pm

jblowery wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 4:20 pm
Lots of good discussions last few weeks regarding EV scores for weak pickups, such as 2 low trump/2 suited or 2 low trump+ace. I thought I'd include a couple other ones for consideration. I wonder how having jacks influences this. Would you pick up as the dealer to create the following hands? For the following, assume you are picking up a low spade to make spades trump:
I'm just gonna tell you what I would do, not what is right or wrong becuz we can't know that unless it's put to the test. (assume non-controversial score 0-0)
jblowery wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 4:20 pm
Left+1+ace (you have next blocked if you pass).

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)
Blocking only 1 out of 3 second round suits, there's no way I'm passing L+1+A as the dealer. Auto-call for me. I would be very surprised if passing beat this call out. As far as how to play it: If a heart is led and you take the first trick with the AH, lead the TH on 2nd street to try to force out more trump. If your void is led (clubs) and you trump in with the QS, lead the AH on 2nd street--this is one of those spots where you have to lead your off ace unpromoted and just hope for the best. If your Ace walks, lead the TH on 3rd street for same reasons as above.

BTW the one L+1+A I'm really not sure about is when we have a doubleton next ace. A hand like this:

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-D)

Is it still worth making this call given how dirty our off ace is? Is the cost of passing now even higher given that we have almost no red cards in our hand? Should we pass this hand to try to trap S1 into a bad Next call? Well that strategy simply doesn't work for like 95% of the euchre population, but if someone like me is in S1 then maybe it's worth it. IDK. If I had to guess I'd say this hand is a call assuming S1 is an amateur who doesn't call Next but who knows. If I had a simulator this would be the first L+1+A I would test. Another hand I wonder about is a L+1+A hand like this:

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_A-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-D)

I pass that hand cuz now I have good defense (block 2 out of 3 2nd rd suits), but maybe we're better off calling this hand? IDK.
jblowery wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 4:20 pm
Left+1

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)
I pass this hand but it wouldn't shock me if it was +EV. It's safe to say that it has a negative expected outcome but passing could have a worse expected outcome making this hand +EV overall. I will say this much, if it's 9-9 and you have an amateur P who doesn't realize they should open it up from S2 in that spot you should call it and hope for the best. Also consider calling this if you have a big lead--a euchre doesn't cost that much and you can always get lucky and why take the chance of S1 having a red loner in the 2nd rd. PS: if you play on the karman app remember this is an auto-call if your P went under maybe at every score--yes maybe even up 9-8! If your opponents go under than this is a suicide call. Only consider it with a really big lead as it's almost a pure donation play now.
jblowery wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 4:20 pm
2 low + ace + off-suite jack - so 2 of 3 remaining suites blocked if you pass (no defense against next though):

(Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_J-H) (Card_10-D)
With 2 out of 3 second rd suits blocked, I pass this hand. I don't call this marginal when I have good defense. BTW I don't overly worry about not blocking next. To me that's just superstitious thinking. We block 2 out of 3. That's good enough for me. If S1 is sitting on a loner in the 1 suit I don't block god bless him. The only time I would get paranoid about not blocking one suit is if I had a really big lead.
jblowery wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 4:20 pm
2 low, no ace - off suite jack so 2 of 3 remaining suites blocked if you pass:

(Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_J-H) (Card_10-D) (Card_Q-C)
This is basically a dealer donate hand and I don't dealer donate when I have good defense (blocking 2 out of 3). That said, if youre up 9-1, ok you have the luxury to get paranoid about not blocking one suit. I wouldn't blame you for making that call. But this hand is almost always an easy pass for me.

irishwolf
Posts: 1237
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:54 pm

ISSUE I have with this post on decision-making is that this is the Dealer's hand but you are not saying what that discard was? It makes a difference to me. So I will reserve comment in general.
For example, in this first hand, Dealer had to discard a Club or Diamond. Dealer would be ill advised to lead trump unless they led to his AH. Tho, I think this hand is a +EV, especially if that euchre rate is less than ~40%. You have to have a trick from your partner to get out alive. You have about 1.75 to 2.00 tricks the majority of the time. You partner is good for 1 if you play it correctly and no help 1/3 of the time.
Pass - This is a neg. EV hand. I think you hold S1/S3 to one point most of the time depending on that Discard. For sure in Next and perhaps in Red as well. However, that's not scoring points. Blocking to me, and I know I disagree with some on this, is B____ S____ euchre. Score points when you can. That is unless you have a euchre hand or can bag with high confidence. IMO

IRISH

"I thought I'd include a couple other ones for consideration. I wonder how having jacks influences this. Would you pick up as the dealer to create the following hands? For the following, assume you are picking up a low spade to make spades trump:"

Left+1+ace (you have next blocked if you pass).

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)

Left+1

Tbolt65
Posts: 788
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:08 pm

jblowery wrote:
Thu Feb 03, 2022 4:20 pm
Lots of good discussions last few weeks regarding EV scores for weak pickups, such as 2 low trump/2 suited or 2 low trump+ace. I thought I'd include a couple other ones for consideration. I wonder how having jacks influences this. Would you pick up as the dealer to create the following hands? For the following, assume you are picking up a low spade to make spades trump:

Left+1+ace (you have next blocked if you pass).

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)

Left+1

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-C) (Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-D)

2 low + ace + off-suite jack - so 2 of 3 remaining suites blocked if you pass (no defense against next though):

(Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_J-H) (Card_10-D)

2 low, no ace - off suite jack so 2 of 3 remaining suites blocked if you pass:

(Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_J-H) (Card_10-D) (Card_Q-C)
I am picking up and calling trump in all those situations. Every time.

Tbolt65
Edward

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