Newcomer, few questions

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newbie
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:11 am

Newcomer, few questions

Unread post by newbie » Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:38 am

Hi Everyone! Never knew such a community existed, but love what you guys have going on here.
I have a few questions/thoughts that I'd like some input on.

First of all, I made a statement today saying that Euchre is a game of probabilities, and was told I was wrong and "play style" had a huge impact. What am I missing? Isn't the entire game just a lot of decisions being made on the probabilities of each card in your hand winning the next trick, which guides your decision on which card to play next based on it having the highest probability of winning?


Second of all, I am stuck thinking about a specific hand and the actual probabilities of each outcome. I'm pretty sure I've been euchred going alone on this exact hand in the past, and just want to see the numbers laid out to help me wrap my head around why this is not a good choice.

My Hand:
(Card_Q-S) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_J-H)

I am pretty sure a (Card_9-S) was passed on by all and flipped, prior to me being "stuck" and calling Hearts.


Is there an easy way to calculate my odds of taking all if I go alone?
Odds of getting at least 3?
Odds of getting Euchred?
Odds of getting all if I bring my partner?
Odds of getting Euchred if I bring my partner?

How much does taking my partner with me actually benefit me? I feel the only benefit would be if he had (Card_J-H) or (Card_A-S) while either of the opponents have (Card_K-S) or (Card_A-H) . Even then, bringing him maxes us out at 2 points if we get them all, vs 4 if i go alone and get them all. How do the probabilities and "value" of the outcome get weighed (?) to figure out the best choice?



So that I don't have to ask in the future, does anyone have a good breakdown for how I would just calculate the probabilities for myself in the future?

Sorry if this is to out there. Maybe this would make more sense to post in a math forum! :lol:


Thank you all for any and all input!



irishwolf
Posts: 1050
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:40 am

NEWBE,

I suggest we make this in two different threads as questions are so different. To the first to answer your. Most definitely euchre is MORE about statistical probabilities and that is first and foremost. But it is about how the other three players play, their experience, aggressive vs conservative, score & situation, etc. etc. All card games boil down to "probabilities" first and foremost. Now Poker is a quite different due to 'bluffing' but it too hinges on probabilities. Short answer, and their will be different answers.
You do not have to be an expert in statistics to play euchre IF you play enough games and pay attention to what works and what does not work. Majority of players past & present, have no idea of 'probabilities and just play the game.

"First of all, I made a statement today saying that Euchre is a game of probabilities, and was told I was wrong and "play style" had a huge impact. What am I missing?"

To your hand, I will make that a NEW topic in a separate thread.

IRISH

Tbolt65
Posts: 717
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:53 pm

newbie wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:38 am
Hi Everyone! Never knew such a community existed, but love what you guys have going on here.
I have a few questions/thoughts that I'd like some input on.

First of all, I made a statement today saying that Euchre is a game of probabilities, and was told I was wrong and "play style" had a huge impact. What am I missing? Isn't the entire game just a lot of decisions being made on the probabilities of each card in your hand winning the next trick, which guides your decision on which card to play next based on it having the highest probability of winning?


Second of all, I am stuck thinking about a specific hand and the actual probabilities of each outcome. I'm pretty sure I've been euchred going alone on this exact hand in the past, and just want to see the numbers laid out to help me wrap my head around why this is not a good choice.

My Hand:
(Card_Q-S) (Card_10-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_J-H)

I am pretty sure a (Card_9-S) was passed on by all and flipped, prior to me being "stuck" and calling Hearts.


Is there an easy way to calculate my odds of taking all if I go alone?
Odds of getting at least 3?
Odds of getting Euchred?
Odds of getting all if I bring my partner?
Odds of getting Euchred if I bring my partner?

How much does taking my partner with me actually benefit me? I feel the only benefit would be if he had (Card_J-H) or (Card_A-S) while either of the opponents have (Card_K-S) or (Card_A-H) . Even then, bringing him maxes us out at 2 points if we get them all, vs 4 if i go alone and get them all. How do the probabilities and "value" of the outcome get weighed (?) to figure out the best choice?



So that I don't have to ask in the future, does anyone have a good breakdown for how I would just calculate the probabilities for myself in the future?

Sorry if this is to out there. Maybe this would make more sense to post in a math forum! :lol:


Thank you all for any and all input!

Welcome newbie,


Your not wrong. Euchre is about probabilities. It is also much more. If you could put a number behind each decision making process and just play as follows from such numbers. You can be successful at euchre and be good at the game. Let's be honest. A good portion of players don't think too much about euchre.

With that said euchre has a lot of intricacies. There is a lot of player based information in euchre one uses to help guide in decision making processes. I will list some of the intricacies in euchre. The play style of your partners and opponents. The score of the game. The up card. What's been turn down. Calling hoyle for your partner, calling green for your partner. Calling for yourself. Counting trump. Counting off-suit. Making probabilistic guesses in situations. Taking known and unknown factors and making the best play you can because if you don't take that chance you won't make that point, get that euchre or even loner. I'm touching on just some things in euchre here that is incorporated into gameplay.

Above all though. The single best thing you can do. That trumps everything (you like that 😎) is getting the game play in. Seeing the hundreds of thousands of hands, situations at all levels of play. Because decision making changes and varies. There are times to do something different when you normally play it a certain way. It is recognizing these situations that can make a difference in a game.


Again, there is a lot to euchre than meets the eye but at face value its a fun and easy game to learn.

Tbolt65
Edward

newbie
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:11 am

Unread post by newbie » Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:25 pm

Thanks guys! Appreciate the thoughts! Quick question, I saw someone comment about running simulations on hands to calculate outcomes. Do you guys know how this is done (website vs personal code)?

irishwolf
Posts: 1050
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:07 pm

Ask the MAN - RAYDOG on simulations, his program.

IRISH

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