WHAT TO LEAD

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irishwolf
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WHAT TO LEAD

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Nov 13, 2021 1:28 am

(Card_J-C) up score is 9 to 9. Dealer orders.
You at S1 hold (Card_9-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_10-D) (Card_J-D)
Two doubletons and a singleton.

What card should you lead to the first trick and why? Does it make much difference?

IRISH



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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Sat Nov 13, 2021 9:25 am

9H and pray :)

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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Nov 14, 2021 12:14 pm

It is doubtful to get much response about this??? And I looked in OE on WHAT TO LEAD, and it is not addressed. So I am going to break this down. So read on:

What is the strategy of leading a singleton when you have two doubletons? I can’t understand what that may be (possibly more likely the dealer has a doubleton and of that suit?)

Let’s break this down on what the Eldest should lead.
First, understand these playing Friday Night Euchre are all known players, in terms of skill, tendencies, etc. etc. Well know also that with the score 9 to 9, you MUST call trump when you get that opportunity. So let’s review this aspect as it is very important as to your strategy. I am not sure that praying as a strategy will help. About Lefty comment, THE ADVICE IS NEVER PLAY A CARD WITHOUT A STRATEGY!

In review of what’s known:

1) The dealer must and did, picked up the Right Bower;

2) Score is 9 to 9, and he knows it do or die - right now on this Bower;

3) The dealer tendencies! He is known to call trump with thin hands;

4) His partner, a good player, would have assisted if had even a thin hand;
SO WHAT TO LEAD:

5) Leading any one of the three off suit you hold with the the S3, the Pone, having the Ace is all equal – basically 28%. So it does not matter from that perspective, statistically speaking;

6) So what else? You, eldest, almost have a useless hand for a euchre. But never give up hope as slim as it may be. You have to treat this like a loner as you only chance of helping your partner. Many a eucre and lone hands have been stopped with a doubleton just like what S1 holds.

You have two doubletons, and each is equal in that they will only stop one card of a doubleton should the dealer have a doubleton. However, that is two bites at the apple. So you MUST play this accordingly to eliminate one double that you hold, just like if you held two aces.

NOTE: As a side Bar, I looked afterwards to see if this was addressed in Pages 1, 2 & 3, OE WHAT TO LEAD? I could not find it specifically. Maybe that will change?

7) We are down to choosing which doubleton to lead (Singleton is not an option as stopping a doubleton. Leading the singleton heart, now forces your doubletons, just like forcing two aces as an analogy.)

To continue, you have a doubleton in a Green suit, diamonds. And that leaves 4 other cards of that suit for a dealer doubleton. Not a bad option but you also hold two cards in Next. And, the Left is not an off suit so there are only 3 other cards of this suit – and the chance your partner has the Ace does not change for either your partner or the dealer. However, having a void is 35% in next is more probable. S3 could trump it and force the Right bower the dealer has.

Thus, Next is better to lead here for S3 trump but also for the dealer to over trump.

The scales know tips to discussing the trump suit. You have no trump so there are 6 unknown trumps. S2 did not Assist (give him one of the 6, statistically) and now assume at least five (5) of those have to be divided between the Stock, S3 & the dealer. Statistically, give one of those to the stock.
That leaves four (4) trumps, and give just one to the dealer and that leaves the possibility of three (3) to S3.
It could also be the reverse, and the dealer has all those. Of course if he does it Curtains. But never give up hope. You have to treat it this way as your best chance for a Euchre.
So it is CONCLUSIVE, your best line of defense is to lead the Next suit, spades. Having the AS does not change vs hearts or diamonds but trumping high to force the Right does.
Thus eldest MUST reject leading his low singleton heart. That is the worst lead.


Using a quote from Sherlock Holmes, "Excellent! I cried. "Elementary [MY DEAR WATSON You know my methods!]," said he.

That is my position and I am sticking to it! :o

IRISHWOLF
Last edited by irishwolf on Sun Nov 14, 2021 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Sun Nov 14, 2021 4:39 pm

Thanks Irish. Well done.

You fully explained the details, including the player tendencies, of the specific hand. I would like to expand your concept to a more general principle.

I believe, your concept would apply to any score and any player with S1’s particular holding. I don’t foresee any circumstance where your concept would not be the best S1 lead. Do you agree?

If you have 2 Doubleton’s, a Singleton and no trump, wouldn’t the key be to pick the best Doubleton? IE, if you held AKd, instead of JTd, play a diamond? (Playing the A or K leads to another discussion, that I want to exclude at this time).

Expanding the decision tree, at what point would a stronger Green Doubleton lead be more powerful than the Next lead? Would leading from AKd be stronger than the Next lead?

Thanks again, for sharing your insights based on probabilities, experience and hand-analysis.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Sun Nov 14, 2021 6:21 pm

Actually Richard I don't necessarily agree. There are lots of variables to consider. I would say it all depends on who the opponents are. For example, if the Dealer is average or a conservative player and will be loaded. Then over trumping would help him more. Also, depends on the upcard as well.

In addition, if you set that style, 'always' then it favors the Dealer on what to discard. Designed for aggressive players who call it THIN! And S1 does not have to have two doubletons, just one in Next. And S1 could have one or two trumps but S3 for this to work well needs a high trump.

I will say, this IT ALL DEPENDS!

ADDENDUM: I said issues, and it on a regular basis can backfire. Here is why, If S1 has 2 in Next, + Left, leaves only 3 in Next. So Dealer will statistically be void in Next, about 82% And if S1 has 2 cards in Next, then it is adventitious to lead next. That advantage is about 69% that S3 will have a void or the Ace.

So if S3 is void, then S2 most likely have a next card. But the dealer has to have JC + 1 trump and it has to be a lower trump than what S3 trumps with. Dealer probably will not over trump and it ends up like what occurred in the hand Friday night anyway. And S3 has to have 3 trumps to get a euchre. Thus, it is rather complex as it also allows S2 to get into the action if void in Next. Even if he only has one trump and is an aggressive player which in turn favors the dealer. This ploy works better if S1 has one high trump. Also consider the Dealer could have two aces, etc. etc. Nothing works 100%. That is what I mean by IT ALL DEPENDS!

IRISH
Last edited by irishwolf on Mon Nov 15, 2021 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Sun Nov 14, 2021 10:26 pm

I’ve been giving this some thought and I tend to agree with Lefty.
In both spades and diamonds, the only card they can beat is the 9. And that 9 is likely to fall on the first lead. Now had that been x-K, well maybe.

Here is the hand you’re referring to:

Image

I set up the workshop so I could show two hands and random deals for the others.

I gave first seat the hand you have shown and gave 2nd the hand from the example above. This reflects the type of hand an experienced player would pass at 9-9.

There was no clear answer. It largely depended on the card dealt to 3rd and the dealer.

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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sun Nov 14, 2021 11:35 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Nov 14, 2021 6:21 pm


I will say, this IT ALL DEPENDS!



IRISH

Indeed.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Nov 15, 2021 12:54 am

To Don, I am not clear what what you are saying? Are you referring to what Richard is saying or to my Analysis which is very different?

If to the hand S3 has and S2 passes under the situation as described - then it is very clear Next needs to be led as the 'best line' (strategy) to Euchre the dealer. However, there will be more euchres leading Next than any other cards S1 holds - AND THAT IS THE POINT OF THIS. As well as that S1 must decide and choose which doubleton to lead from and that is the other point of the analysis even though a doubleton only catches a "9D or 9S" Every line of advantage needs to be utilized.

If you are saying my analysis, you need to provide some statistically valid analysis, sample size and facts that would refute it. And I am open to that.

We have to be comparing apples and apples and not changing moving the goal posts.
You give 1st. 2nd and 3rd seat the hands in the situation, JC and that now leaves the cards available for the Stock & Dealer: AH KH AD KD QD AND EITHER QC or 9C, 8 CARDS and S1 must lead his low 10S. Of course if you give both 9C & QC, no euchre results. But neither will it with and card led. However, give just one trump with JC, I Guarantee a EUCHRE but not with the 9H lead.
Refute that, please!

When you give S2 3 hearts, you are moving the goal posts that skew the results to favorably leading the 9H. When you have the hand that S1 has, and S2 passes, he has one or no trumps and his other four cards are unknown.

IRISH

You said, "I gave first seat the hand you have shown and gave 2nd the hand from the example above. This reflects the type of hand an experienced player would pass at 9-9."

"There was no clear answer. It largely depended on the card dealt to 3rd and the dealer."

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:52 am

You and this website is not addressing the issue of having TWO DOUBLETONS: However the small advantage of only covering a 9 doubleton, it is still an advantage to lead one first. What is that advantage? About 7.6% per EACH. Never should the singleton be led first. And the hand proves the RULE.

"In both spades and diamonds, the only card they can beat is the 9."

IRISH

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Unread post by jspectre » Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:26 pm

I'm more concerned that S passes this hand, he does not need a euchre here, and if the dealer has him beat, then he's going to pick it up anyway. All you're doing here is giving yourself a chance to lose if the dealer turns this down and S1 tries to call something in red as opposed to making a next call with little to nothing. Of course, in the hand itself the dealer has to call, and S1 would have called next, but I digress.

Oh, and I would also lead one of the doubletons, most likely next, because you need to make something happen in this type scenario, leading the heart is what you do when you want to play it safe, and not accidentally screw up a potential trick for your partner, but we're past all that, it's time to take a risk, and I would bet on S3 being able to trump the dealer's AS, as well as giving myself the best chances to promote a winner.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Mon Nov 15, 2021 8:33 pm

I was referring to the original question in this post. “What to lead”

I’m really not disagreeing with you, But I am trying to understand the concept.

Maybe the hand shown was a poor example. Testing of the hand shown gave no useable answers. What suit worked, on one hand, was the wrong lead on the next hand. This is why the heart seemed as good as any.

My thought on leading a singleton is that my partner may have the ace and make it good.

Having first lead with a total junk hand has always seemed like a shot in the dark.

Are you saying lead anything but a singleton?

How would you choose between two doubletons?

I’m willing to give it a try and see if it helps.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:58 pm

I thought I already explained it and gave the statistical basis.

Are you saying lead anything but a singleton? YES, LEAD FROM ONE DOUBLETONS. NEXT IS PREFERRED! 2ND CHOICE IS THE DOUBLETON THAT IS 'TOUCHING'. AND 3RD CHOICE IS TO SAVE THE ONE THAT WILL CATCH MORE OF THE OPPONENT'S DOUBLETON. LIKE SAVE THE K/9, OR Q/9 FOR LAST. IF YOU ONLY HAVE DOUBLETON, SAVE IT TO CATCH THE DEALER's DOUBLETON LATER IN THE HAND.

How would you choose between two doubletons?

FOR NEXT, S1 HAS 2 OF NEXT - ~32% CHANCE HAS ACE OR KING (IF ACE IS BURIED) AND HAS 35% VOID. COMBINED IS 67 - 69% FAVORABLE!

LEADING THE SINGLETON - 32% CHANCE ACE OR KING (SAME AS NEXT) HOWEVER ONLY A 16% CHANCE OF A VOID. THAT IS THE BASIS AND FOR S1 NOW DOUBLES HIS CHANCE TO CATCH 'DEALER's' DOUBLETON.


I’m willing to give it a try and see if it helps.

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Tue Nov 16, 2021 1:52 pm

HA ! I remember this hand now - I was dealer and you were ponce. And my team won because 9H got led and you trumped and I did not take the bait. I laid off and instead of you leading ace offsuit (short) you led ace of trumps which I then overtook, then I led my AK doubleton and had one more trump leftover to make my doubleton King stand up. You still had a chance to win the hand (and the game) had you just led your own AK non trump suit. Don't blame the opening lead when you had the game in hand after 1st trick was played. This one is on you. You had the all black hand.

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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:49 pm

More foolish comments from the Peanut gallery. You can't win (WHEN 9H IS LED) the hand from 3rd seat UNLESS you play like a dope!

"then overtook, then I led my AK doubleton and had one more trump leftover to make my doubleton King stand up. You still had a chance to win the hand (and the game) had you just led your own AK non trump suit. Don't blame the opening lead when you had the game"

You're inexperience shows!

IRISH

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Nov 16, 2021 7:00 pm

So LEFTY, now that you put your foot in your mouth, now lay out, trick by trick how, when 9H is led, that the Dealer is euchred? ha ha! :lol:

IRISH

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:37 pm

Let's go Lefty, back up you statements??????????????????? THE EUCHRE WORLD AWAITS!

IRISH

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:11 pm

LEFTY,

WHERE OH WHERE ARE YOU LEFTY? Lay out that winning hand with the 9H lead.

Waiting your brilliance? Ignorance is bliss as he falls Silent!

IRISH

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:02 pm

Irish still can't win if he leads the off suit, unless the dealer misplays and trumps in with the right. I still don't agree at all with the decision to pass from 3rd with this hand, and while the 9H just happened to lose this hand, I have strong doubts that it would play that much of a factor in the long run, the situation that occurred is already exceedingly rare, and leading one of the doubleton suits could have been the only losing play as well, depending on how the cards shake out. The doubleton is only an advantage in a very specific circumstance, otherwise we're just talking about chance when it comes to which card is the "best" lead in any given situation.

I assume this example would be difficult to test, because 2nd seat must pass, and the dealer must pick up.

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:21 am

wow you and J both.... again I did NOT use the right on the first trick!!....Irish trumps with left on first trick (eye l-a-i-d off) ...... THEN. play your off ace IRISH and watch me trump that 2nd trick with the 9, then I lead the right. You still have one more trump to my none and when I lead my green ace on 4th trick, you trump it and your king shorted offsuit wins the 5th trick for the euchre.... are you guys blind?????

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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:06 am

Only a fool would play as you suggest. This what would happen if S3 does not lead trump to the 2nd trick, S2 can trump the 4th trick.

S1 9H TS TD QS JD
S2 JH 9S TH TC QH
S3 JS AS AC KS KC
S4 QD 9C AD KD JC

No way to win when a heart is led unless the Dealer plays like a fool.

IRISH

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Unread post by Richardb02 » Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:22 pm

I was hoping that someone would challenge Irish’s logic. Alas, nothing but opinions! Allow me to offer my observations.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Nov 14, 2021 12:14 pm
It is doubtful to get much response about this??? And I looked in OE on WHAT TO LEAD, and it is not addressed. Yes and yes. I waited for Irish’s reasons. I was confident that he would supply information that was over and above conventional thinking. He exceeded even my high expectations. Irish pointed out that the OE lessons did not address what to lead in this situation. I too, checked the OE lessons. OE lessons are designed to help new players and for experienced players to play better. They aren’t designed to cover the more nuanced situations that arise in Euchre.} So I am going to break this down. So read on:

What is the strategy of leading a singleton when you have two doubletons? I can’t understand what that may be (possibly more likely the dealer has a doubleton and of that suit?)
Irish’s statement underscores that his thinking is outside the box. He challenges the conventional (and yet excellent for the vast majority of hands), OE guidance. His following analysis is a detailed explanation of his concepts!

Let’s break this down on what the Eldest should lead.
First, understand these playing Friday Night Euchre are all known players, in terms of skill, tendencies, etc. etc. Well know also that with the score 9 to 9, you MUST call trump when you get that opportunity. So let’s review this aspect as it is very important as to your strategy. I am not sure that praying as a strategy will help. About Lefty comment, THE ADVICE IS NEVER PLAY A CARD WITHOUT A STRATEGY!

In review of what’s known:

1) The dealer must and did, picked up the Right Bower;

2) Score is 9 to 9, and he knows it do or die - right now on this Bower;

3) The dealer tendencies! He is known to call trump with thin hands;

4) His partner, a good player, would have assisted if had even a thin hand;
SO WHAT TO LEAD:

5) Leading any one of the three off suit you hold with the the S3, the Pone, having the Ace is all equal – basically 28%. So it does not matter from that perspective, statistically speaking;
[Points 1 through 5 are not even debatable!]
6) So what else? You, eldest, almost have a useless hand for a euchre. But never give up hope as slim as it may be. You have to treat this like a loner as you only chance of helping your partner. Many a eucre and lone hands have been stopped with a doubleton just like what S1 holds. [Many a euchre are made and a lone hand stopped with a Doubleton, just like S1 holds.]
He explains 3 key points:
1. You “almost have a useless hand for a euchre.
2. “But never give up hope as slim as it may be.”
3. “You have to treat this [S1 hand] like a loner as your only chance of helping your partner.
All 3 points are excellent, but Point 3 is my major take away. Treat S1’s hand like a loner! Now we have a body of OE lessons and forum discussions that apply to the particular hand.


You have two doubletons, and each is equal in that they will only stop one card of a doubleton should the dealer have a doubleton. However, that is two bites at the apple. So you MUST play this accordingly to eliminate one double that you hold, just like if you held two aces.

NOTE: As a side Bar, I looked afterwards to see if this was addressed in Pages 1, 2 & 3, OE WHAT TO LEAD? I could not find it specifically. Maybe that will change?

7) We are down to choosing which doubleton to lead (Singleton is not an option as stopping a doubleton. Leading the singleton heart, now forces your doubletons, just like forcing two aces as an analogy.)

To continue, you have a doubleton in a Green suit, diamonds. And that leaves 4 other cards of that suit for a dealer doubleton. Not a bad option but you also hold two cards in Next. And, the Left is not an off suit so there are only 3 other cards of this suit – and the chance your partner has the Ace does not change for either your partner or the dealer. However, having a void is 35% in next is more probable. S3 could trump it and force the Right bower the dealer has.
Basic euchre probabilities. Irrefutable and not too difficult to understand.
Thus, Next is better to lead here for S3 trump but also for the dealer to over trump.
The reasonable conclusion, based on simple probabilities.
The scales know tips to discussing the trump suit. [The next level of analysis now must be a discussion of trump]. You have no trump so there are 6 unknown trumps. S2 did not Assist (give him one of the 6, statistically) and now assume at least five (5) of those have to be divided between the Stock, S3 & the dealer. Statistically, give one of those to the stock.
That leaves four (4) trumps, and give just one to the dealer and that leaves the possibility of three (3) to S3.
It could also be the reverse, and the dealer has all those. Of course if he does it Curtains. But never give up hope. You have to treat it this way as your best chance for a Euchre.
So it is CONCLUSIVE, your best line of defense is to lead the Next suit, spades. Having the AS does not change vs hearts or diamonds but trumping high to force the Right does.
Thus eldest MUST reject leading his low singleton heart. That is the worst lead.


Using a quote from Sherlock Holmes, "Excellent! I cried. "Elementary [MY DEAR WATSON You know my methods!]," said he.

That is my position and I am sticking to it! :o

IRISHWOLF
In a later post Irish gives more important, take away Eucre-guidance. But enough analysis for now. Allow me to add a paraphrased guidance from a professor.

Be smarter than a cow. (A cow is the dumbest of domesticated animals). If you put a bale of hay in front of a cow, the cow does not eat everything. The cow pulls the briars and thorns away from the hay. The cow then enjoys the softest and tastiest parts of the hay. Enjoy the hay and push the briars and thorns away. :)

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Unread post by RedDuke » Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:54 pm

Against a normal opponent, I'd agree with Lefty here.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:33 pm

Irish’s follow up post.
He adds “Touching Doubletons” to the conversation. I have never noticed this concept being discussed!
More impressively, he quickly details why leading the Doubleton Next is superior to leading the singleton, in a short post.

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:58 pm
I thought I already explained it and gave the statistical basis.

Are you saying lead anything but a singleton? YES, LEAD FROM ONE [OF THE] DOUBLETONS. NEXT IS PREFERRED! 2ND CHOICE IS THE DOUBLETON THAT IS 'TOUCHING'. AND 3RD CHOICE IS TO SAVE THE ONE THAT WILL CATCH MORE OF THE OPPONENT'S DOUBLETON. LIKE SAVE THE K/9, OR Q/9 FOR LAST. IF YOU ONLY HAVE DOUBLETON, SAVE IT TO CATCH THE DEALER's DOUBLETON LATER IN THE HAND.

How would you choose between two doubletons?

FOR NEXT, S1 HAS 2 OF NEXT - ~32% CHANCE HAS ACE OR KING (IF ACE IS BURIED) AND HAS 35% VOID. COMBINED IS 67 - 69% FAVORABLE!

LEADING THE SINGLETON - 32% CHANCE ACE OR KING (SAME AS NEXT) HOWEVER ONLY A 16% CHANCE OF A VOID. THAT IS THE BASIS AND FOR S1 NOW DOUBLES HIS CHANCE TO CATCH 'DEALER's' DOUBLETON.


I’m willing to give it a try and see if it helps.
If you want to improve your game, you must be willing to change. Yet, it is difficult to change our “Hard-wired” habits. I understand how difficult it is to change. I dislike change, but I understand that changes must be made, to improve myself. Dlan’s post reveals that he is dealing with wanting to improve vs. “Hard-Wired” habits. He agrees with a well known individual who asked, “what have you got to lose?” Our mentor, Dlan is open minded, to the concept. The facts, supporting leading the Next Doubleton were clearly presented. That adds up to 2 strong reasons to consider the concept. The explanations for leading the Singleton was clearly inferior to leading the Next Doubleton, IMO.

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