Question for euchre probability nerds...

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XaviRonaldo
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

Question for euchre probability nerds...

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Thu Nov 04, 2021 2:27 am

Ignore the fact spades was called by my RHO and we got the euchre but was sandbagging here a good play? I had the following hand as dealer...

(Card_J-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-D) (Card_J-C)

Upcard was (Card_10-D)

I know against aggressive players it probably would've been prudent to pick it up considering hearts was a likely call and that was my 2nd weakest suit. I would consider clubs to be weaker with that A-10 combo being next suit.

Yes, I also know that diamonds is a potential loner but without having the advantage of the lead in my experience a euchre is far too common going for it here. Against intermediate players they're often bagging themselves.

What played into me passing was that my P proved to be fairly aggressive so I knew that them passing they either have not much or have a better hand in another suit and I have help whatever they call.

What would you have done? Score was 2-0 our way BTW



irishwolf
Posts: 1050
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Nov 04, 2021 7:39 pm

I would go alone in Diamonds. The EV I would estimate would be over 1.4. You might get euchred about 15 - 18%, but so what that is included in my calculation. 30 - 35% successful loners (that 120 to 140 points on loners minus euchre points -30 to -36, so the one pointers will be about +50). Any time the successful loners exceed the euchres, you go for it.

Why might you say? Because the JD right bower will be with my partner or buried 44.4% of the time. So yes, stopped 56% of the time and that Right will not be guarded 35% of the time.

You cannot do better than that by passing or just picking it up. And guess what, getting 1 point is almost the same because the opponents have the Right same percentage.

IRISH

Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:40 am

You got to pick up and go alone in diamonds. Let's say if one of your spades was a heart but even still ..... You have too much to go alone with. Just pick up and go alone.


Tbolt65
Edward

XaviRonaldo
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:41 am

Unread post by XaviRonaldo » Sat Nov 06, 2021 3:42 am

Tbolt65 wrote:
Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:40 am
You got to pick up and go alone in diamonds. Let's say if one of your spades was a heart but even still ..... You have too much to go alone with. Just pick up and go alone.


Tbolt65
Edward
1st seat with the lead it's a no brainer loner attempt. But against intermediate players and without the lead on that app in my experience they bag a lot and I get euchred more often than getting the loner

irishwolf
Posts: 1050
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Sat Nov 06, 2021 10:22 am

You gotta love it!

You asked for advice on what to do. You got it with details as well, but refuse to acknowledge. That is what is useless and a waste of my time to comment on any of these hands. i have better things to do.

So I am bowing out.

IRISH

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Dlan
Site Admin
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Location: Ohio

Unread post by Dlan » Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:40 pm

C'mon, lighten up. Geez

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