OE games 2-8 Leading back to your partner

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Dlan
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OE games 2-8 Leading back to your partner

Post by Dlan » Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:06 pm




Tbolt65
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Post by Tbolt65 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:39 pm

Personally I would have lead a fresh suit back to my partner. Trump preferably. Since seat 2 has none with dealer throwing off a queen of spades. I would not come back in spades. There are 2 un accounted hearts. However the likelihood of putting your partner in a squeeze is too high and you pretty much have no back up for him what so ever. So try and find his void or ace with a fresh suit lead thats nit likely to be over trumped.

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Post by irishwolf » Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:04 pm

Good comments made, ED. But there is more to this in the way of mistakes. First of all, big mistake to discard the KH when you also have a singleton of different suit. You keep the King and if it was a different suit than what was led Sloughing the King means lead me that suit as I have the Ace or none of that suit. This is a fundamental that most players miss thinking the next suit is short so keep next. More important to keep the singleton King. Plus a King will win more tricks than a Queen. This only applies to a singleton King slough.

However, having the KH, dealer had to follow suit. So now S2 has to decide, lead KD or 9S/TS. Does the dealer have the AS or KS or void? To me, it is no contest, only 3 spades as JS is a trump card. There are 5 diamonds and 3 spades out. Lead the 9S or 10S, the suit the dealer is more likely to be short of. By leading the QH one of those opponents will be short suit and now S1 is behind the dealer. And it allows S1 to short suit himself. So not only did S2 euchre his partner, the dealer was complicit. Two big mistakes, IMO and the euchre could have been avoided. Since the dealer did not go over the KC, and S2 did not lead trump, it worth considering to lead the AC. If he has both bowers, it makes no difference anyway.


~Irishwolf

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Post by Tbolt65 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:22 am

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:04 pm
Good comments made, ED. But there is more to this in the way of mistakes. First of all, big mistake to discard the KH when you also have a singleton of different suit. You keep the King and if it was a different suit than what was led Sloughing the King means lead me that suit as I have the Ace or none of that suit. This is a fundamental that most players miss thinking the next suit is short so keep next. More important to keep the singleton King. Plus a King will win more tricks than a Queen. This only applies to a singleton King slough.

However, having the KH, dealer had to follow suit. So now S2 has to decide, lead KD or 9S/TS. Does the dealer have the AS or KS or void? To me, it is no contest, only 3 spades as JS is a trump card. There are 5 diamonds and 3 spades out. Lead the 9S or 10S, the suit the dealer is more likely to be short of. By leading the QH one of those opponents will be short suit and now S1 is behind the dealer. And it allows S1 to short suit himself. So not only did S2 euchre his partner, the dealer was complicit. Two big mistakes, IMO and the euchre could have been avoided. Since the dealer did not go over the KC, and S2 did not lead trump, it worth considering to lead the AC. If he has both bowers, it makes no difference anyway.


~Irishwolf
I didn't comment on the discard because there really nothing to comment on. Since you brought it up. I'll address it. When one is the dealer and picking up clubs in this spot. Generally you want to toss a red suit. But if seat one shows tendicies to leading next or green obviously you as dealer would want to toss that suit. Plus if you recognize that seat 1 is wise to your dicards then you adjust accordingly as the dealer.

For this hand, the lead back of diamonds is the best lead with the information we have at hand for seat 2. Spades is second best, because its still possible dealer has another spade and hearts is absolutely the worst come back.


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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:16 am

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:04 pm
Good comments made, ED. But there is more to this in the way of mistakes. First of all, big mistake to discard the KH when you also have a singleton of different suit. You keep the King and if it was a different suit than what was led Sloughing the King means lead me that suit as I have the Ace or none of that suit. This is a fundamental that most players miss thinking the next suit is short so keep next. More important to keep the singleton King. Plus a King will win more tricks than a Queen. This only applies to a singleton King slough.
I disagree. First of all even if discarding the KH were a mistake it's hyperbole to call it a "big mistake". If it is a mistake at all I wouldn't even call it a small mistake, maybe a micro-mistake. But that's irrelevant becuz I don't think it's a mistake at all. I think discarding the KH is the correct move. In a game where S1 players tend to lead green--which in my estimation is the vast majority of euchre games we all play in--we are better off discarding the KH. The first lead is the only street the dealer is guaranteed to be closing the action. Becuz of this I think it's critical that the dealer discard in such a manner that maximizes his chance of trumping in on that first lead. Therefore discard green, I.E. the KH. I think this factor outweighs the fact that the KH will take more tricks than the QS + the informational advantage you talked about. Of course I can't prove my case without a simulation but neither can you. So on this point we'd have to agree to disagree. And of course it goes without saying if S1 has a tendency to lead Next, then we adjust and discard the QS in this spot.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:04 pm
However, having the KH, dealer had to follow suit. So now S2 has to decide, lead KD or 9S/TS. Does the dealer have the AS or KS or void? To me, it is no contest, only 3 spades as JS is a trump card. There are 5 diamonds and 3 spades out. Lead the 9S or 10S, the suit the dealer is more likely to be short of.
This analysis doesn't work. I agree that we generally want to lead to our P's potential void but you can't simply count how many spades and how many diamonds are left to make that decision. It's not that simple. More hand reading and probably some combo counting is necessary to reach the right conclusion.

For example, let's just isolate all the possible 3 trump hands the dealer can have. Obviously if the dealer started out with a 3 trump 2 suited hand, meaning his two offsuits are spades, we'd want S2 to lead a diamond. Not very interesting so far, but here's where it DOES get interesting. Those other times the dealer has a 3 trump + 3 suited hand, meaning he has 3 clubs, 1 spade, and 1 diamond, the dealer is ONLY going to be throwing off with the QS on the first lead when his lone diamond is precisely the AD (and this changes the math dramatically). Think about it. If the dealer plays well and has a garbage spade and a garbage diamond, the correct move on the first lead is to discard the cleanest suit, the diamond, except when that diamond is the AD.

So when the dealer has 3 trump and discards the QS on the first lead, his other offsuit card has to be either a spade or the AD, again assuming the dealer plays well. Well we already know if the dealer's other offsuit is a spade we'd obviously wanna lead a diamond, but what about those times your P has that singleton AD? Ask yourself what lead is best for your team? A super dirty effective quadrupleton spade lead that could easily get your P overtrumped or leading to your P's singleton AD hoping it walks (effectively a doubleton AD given the KD in your hand). I think you'll agree the safer lead for your team is the diamond any time your P has 3 trump which will typically make up the majority of your P's range since most players incorrectly pass on L+1+off ace hands or two non-bower trump + an off ace when they don't block much in the 2nd round. Hell it seems like most randoms are passing R+1+nothing and two non-bower trump + 2 aces, which makes my point even stronger when playing with unknowns.

But even if you were playing with an expert P who makes all the right calls you'll find that leading a diamond is best vs his overall range. We've already established a diamond lead is best when he holds 3 trump. I count 29 combos of this hand type after you minus out loner hands. 45 total combos - 16 loner hands that can't be in his range. Not a lot of combos, but you have to remember that the dealer's range collapses big time the instant he plays the QS on the first lead cuz that means the only diamond he can possibly have is the AD those times he starts with 3 trump.

So that's 29 combos that prefer a diamond lead.

What about those times the dealer has R+1. This is where leading a diamond is a clear overall loser. Those times the dealer had these hands:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_A-D)

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_Q-S) (Card_A-S) (Card_K-S)

Leading a diamond is best in the first case imo as that's the lead that is most likely going to get the maker back in control of the hand. Leading a diamond is clearly best in the 2nd case. But both these hands only represent 2 combos (I excluded the loner combo of JcTcAsQsAd). Where leading a diamond fails are those times the dealer has JcTcQsXdXd which make up 10 combos.

So that's 10 combos that prefer a spade lead and 2 combos that prefer a diamond lead.

What about 2 trump 2 ace hands (excluding the JC since I'd go alone with that hand). After the dealer plays the Qs on the first lead there are only 5 combos of this hand type and all 5 combos would much rather you lead to their effective doubleton AD than their effective quadruleton AS.

So that's 5 combos that would prefer a diamond lead.

Ok now let's look at L+1+off ace hands. Well first I'm only calling with this hand type if I only block 1 out of 3 remaining suits and secondly I'm not calling with this hand even under that condition if my off ace is a doubleton Next or worse (unless I have a big lead but we'll ignore that scenario for the sake of simplicity), which means I can't have the AS in this spot and the JD can't be in my hand either. So I either have JsTcKsQsAd (1 combo) or I have JsTcQsAdXd (3 combos). I honestly would prefer S2 lead a diamond with either hand. I mean this spot is so marginal that my AD probably has to walk unpromoted anyway for our team to possibly score a point. I'd rather you lead a diamond hoping my AD walks and then I would try to create an end play with my guarded Left leading the KS in the first hand type or double leading a diamond in the 2nd hand type.

So that's 4 combos that prefer a diamond lead.


What about other marginal hands like 2 non-bower trump + an off ace? Again, I'm only making this thin call when I block only zero or 1 out of 3 remaining suits, and even then I'm still not calling with a doubleton Next off ace (same exception as above when I have a big lead). So when I play the QS on the first lead, I can't have the AS in this spot. I count 20 combos of his hand. 4 combos of KsQsTcXcAd and 16 combos of QsTcXcAdXd. In the first case our hand would prefer a diamond lead and in the 2nd case I'd argue our hand also prefers a diamond lead the logic being our hand is so marginal getting overtrumped would = game over and our AD probably has to walk unpromoted anyway if our team is gonna scratch a point.

So that's 20 combos that prefer a diamond lead.

Overall total. 60 combos prefer a diamond lead, and 10 combos prefer a spade lead. 85.7% of the time I would prefer a diamond lead if I were the dealer. So diamonds is the clear best lead for the dealer's overall range whether the dealer is an amateur or an expert.

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Post by irishwolf » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:27 am

WES SAID,
" I disagree. First of all even if discarding the KH were a mistake it's hyperbole to call it a "big mistake". If it is a mistake at all I wouldn't even call it a small mistake, maybe a micro-mistake. But that's irrelevant becuz I don't think it's a mistake at all. I think discarding the KH is the correct move."

You can disagree all you want. You are vastly mistaken. My comment was firstly about the discard: KH vs QS, and anytime the Queen is of the next suit. But the point is what the King slough means compared to the Queen.

With the queen slough, S2 wins the trick by trump or with an Ace and I slough the Queen. I could also have three combinations:

QS SINGLETON
QS/KS
QS/KS/AS

With a King slough I only have two combinations:

KH SINGLETON
KH/AH

With these combination, IT DOES NOT MATTER if S2 leads me the heart or leads the other off suit. To try and figure out what Eldest is likely to lead is a mixed bag. One it depends on what you hold regardless of what you are likely to do. Two, most good players mix it up. So trying to get your head around that is a big issue. And since QS was next, the dealer has a better chance of TRUMPING, the first trick as it is 16.7% advantage.

Secondly, in the hand posted, had the QS was saved and all did was confuse S2. Had the QS been discarded, it would not even make a difference if that QH was led to the 2nd trick.

You posting the various combos was just a waste of time, moving the goal posts.

~Irishwolf

P.S.
I am still waiting on your FACTS to the hand 9H 10H QH AS KS. You provided NO facts. I did hands and guarantee my posted results.

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:59 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:27 am
You can disagree all you want. You are vastly mistaken. My comment was firstly about the discard: KH vs QS, and anytime the Queen is of the next suit. But the point is what the King slough means compared to the Queen.

With the queen slough, S2 wins the trick by trump or with an Ace and I slough the Queen. I could also have three combinations:

QS SINGLETON
QS/KS
QS/KS/AS

With a King slough I only have two combinations:

KH SINGLETON
KH/AH

With these combination, IT DOES NOT MATTER if S2 leads me the heart or leads the other off suit.
I established mathematically what a QS slough means on the heart lead. It means S2 should lead a diamond on 2nd street. And hypothetically, a QS slough on a diamond lead would mean S2 should lead a heart. BTW for those interested, this "what to lead" problem for S2 is another variation of Quiz #21 from main quiz on this site: https://ohioeuchre.com/Test-Your-Euchre-Skills.php

I agree that a KH slough in your scenario = S2 should lead a heart.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:27 am
To try and figure out what Eldest is likely to lead is a mixed bag. One it depends on what you hold regardless of what you are likely to do. Two, most good players mix it up. So trying to get your head around that is a big issue. And since QS was next, the dealer has a better chance of TRUMPING, the first trick as it is 16.7% advantage.
Obviously on this point I simply disagree with your assumption. I believe most S1 players have a clear tendency to lead green, enough so that the dealer should void himself in green to maximize his chances of getting to trump his void on the first lead. We are at an impasse here and that's ok. Without a simulation we have to agree to disagree.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:27 am
Secondly, in the hand posted, had the QS was saved and all did was confuse S2. Had the QS been discarded, it would not even make a difference if that QH was led to the 2nd trick.
It should not have confused S2 tho. S2 just needs more experience in this spot. It can seem like a tricky situation at first but once S2 gets it down it will come as 2nd nature. S2 needs to check out Hand #21 on that main quiz or follow my math which proves the same conclusion.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:27 am
You posting the various combos was just a waste of time, moving the goal posts.
The point of my combo analysis was to mathematically prove that a diamond lead is better than a spade lead after the dealer sloughs the QS on the heart lead. Simply counting how many diamonds and spades are left in the deck to figure out what to lead does not work.
irishwolf wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:27 am
P.S.
I am still waiting on your FACTS to the hand 9H 10H QH AS KS. You provided NO facts. I did hands and guarantee my posted results.
I posted a response and it got deleted and the thread got locked. I'm done with that topic.

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:40 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:04 pm
However, having the KH, dealer had to follow suit. So now S2 has to decide, lead KD or 9S/TS. Does the dealer have the AS or KS or void? To me, it is no contest, only 3 spades as JS is a trump card. There are 5 diamonds and 3 spades out. Lead the 9S or 10S, the suit the dealer is more likely to be short of.

~Irishwolf
BTW this is an interesting problem in itself. If S2 wins the first trick on the heart lead and the dealer were to follow suit with the KH, how does S2 decide what's best to lead on 2nd street when he has no trump. What's interesting is I strongly disagree with the above logic and would not lead a spade, but a diamond instead.

Why I don't like a spade lead in that spot:

1) If my P, the maker, has the AS then my spade lead is effectively a quadrupleton lead and my P's AS is very unlikely to walk. If the 2S instead led a diamond and his P had the AD, that ace is more likely to walk on an effective doubleton lead.

2) If my P is void in spades the odds of him getting overtrumped on my now effective tripleton spade lead is significantly higher than on my singleton diamond lead. So paradoxically I think the right course is the exact opposite from the above.

Conclusion: If one is in S2 and takes the first trick and their P, the maker follows suit, and S2 does not have a trump to lead, here's the heuristic to decide what to lead on 2nd street assuming S2 has a choice: lead your cleanest suit, I.E. the suit your P, the maker, is least likely to get overtrumped on should he have a void which is also the suit your maker's possible Ace is most likely to walk on should he have that Ace.

Of course I can't prove the above claim. Only a simulation can do that.

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Post by irishwolf » Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:58 pm

I believe most S1 players have a clear tendency to lead green, enough so that the dealer should void himself in green to maximize his chances of getting to trump his void on the first lead.

Yes, I disagree and a waste of time unless you play against that player(s) for many games. I certainly don't as first it depends on what I hold (first principle). I mix it up so as not to set a pattern. So we agree to disagree.

Still, a queen vs a king? I will discard that queen every time.

And I am done with this topic!

~Irishwolf

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:09 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:58 pm
I believe most S1 players have a clear tendency to lead green, enough so that the dealer should void himself in green to maximize his chances of getting to trump his void on the first lead.

Yes, I disagree and a waste of time unless you play against that player(s) for many games. I certainly don't as first it depends on what I hold (first principle). I mix it up so as not to set a pattern. So we agree to disagree.

Still, a queen vs a king? I will discard that queen every time.

And I am done with this topic!

~Irishwolf
Wolf, we need you for tomorrows 5:50 est WOCG game. Richard is out. Can you play?

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Post by Dlan » Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:32 pm

8:50 Eastern time

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Post by irishwolf » Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:47 pm

YES

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:00 am

irishwolf wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:47 pm
YES
Sweet and yeah oops meant 8:50 EST

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