Tbolt65 wrote: ↑
Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:00 pm
This has wes written all over it.
Yes it was me, and yes I created a +5 point swing for my team like a f**king pro given S2 had a lock 4 pt loner and my call scored a point. But I'm still not happy!
The more I think about it the more I don't like my first lead. I think I should've just lead the AD. I dogmatically avoided leading that since it was the turned down suit, and effectively a quadrupleton ace since it's a doubleton Next Ace plus the exposed upcard. But here's why I still think it's probably the best lead here:
It can still get lucky and walk.
It can give my P the chance to throw off a loser.
It can help prevent my P from getting overtrumped on the first lead.
If the enemy trumps it on the first lead this isn't really a bad thing. That's one less enemy trump to get in the way of my P.
Leading the AD legally and clearly communicates two messages to my P: 1) I have no trump. Anytime I call next and lead an off ace I have no trump and 2) Not only do I have no trump but this is my only off Ace becuz if I had another off ace I would surely lead that over the turned down suit Ace.
Ok back to the hand. Sometimes I don't think people really take me seriously when I advocate calling something--veering towards Next--from S1-Rd 2 whenever one doesn't block reverse Next. But the logic is really simple. When one doesn't block reverse Next the theoretical cost of passing is so high and thus the theoretical cost of a euchre is so low that you might as well gamble and try to get lucky.
Another way to look at it. When we call Next on BS and get euchred it never really costs 2 pts right cuz usually if we pass the other team would've called something and let's just say on average they would've gotten 1 pt. So roughly speaking a euchre actually costs us around 1 pt usually (maybe higher the less suits we block and the better S2 plays but lets just keep it simple here). Ok well my "crazy" call here just created a +5 pt swing in my team's favor, could've been a +6 pt swing if I had led the AD. That means I could get euchred on my next 5-6 Next calls and still break even. IOW these type of calls do not have to succeed that often to be worth it cuz when you create enough +6, +5, +4, +3, +2 swings they make up for A LOT of euchres. The reason why people dismiss this aggressive strategy is becuz they only remember the euchres and euchres aren't fun.
And nobody takes into account the additional important benefit of this aggressive play: Knowing that S1 is gonna play strong defense in the 2nd round, S3 now can bag the hell out of the dealer in the first round.
If I'm your P and you have these hands in S3:
, and you have:
S3 should pass and bag all those hands!!!