Donates from the "Monday" Night Game - Block tracker

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Dlan
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Donates from the "Monday" Night Game - Block tracker

Post by Dlan » Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:55 pm

I've set up a simple spreadsheet to track the next 100 donations from our Monday games.

I will be including all donation calls plus my best guess on what may happen if first seat passes.

All data will include links to the corresponding games.

This will only cover first round calls.

Hopefully, this will provide some useful data on the risks and rewards of donating.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Scroll to the end of the spreadsheet for totals and average percentages.



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LeftyK
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Post by LeftyK » Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:17 pm

can you also put who called the donate in another column? I'm willing to bet Wes has at least 50 and the rest of us combined dont :)

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Post by Dlan » Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:52 am

In a group of experienced players, such as those that play on Mondays, there will be those that tend to donate more than others. There will also be those that tend to donate less. Over 100 hands it should average out.

The object of this spreadsheet is to show the risks and rewards of donating.

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:17 am

Dlan wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:55 pm
I've set up a simple spreadsheet to track the next 100 donations from our Monday games.

I will be including all donation calls plus my best guess on what may happen if first seat passes.
This part is critically important since obviously what we're trying to measure here is the cost of passing vs the cost of donating, but this part will also be inherently debatable. To figure out the cost of passing I simply play out the hand on the kitchen table making what I think is the very best decision for each player at each juncture of the hand (always assuming they can't see anyone's cards of course). In reality players make mistakes and what I think is the best decision may not be. Hence the inherently debatable part. But I don't think this is a big deal. It's just the way it is and at the end of the day we'll still get a pretty good estimate. And we'll also be able to all work together on this. If one guy claims the cost of passing is -2 points. Any of us can verify that by playing the hand out ourselves. This exercise will invariably lead to debate on what line is optimal for a given player which will be interesting and fruitful in itself.
Dlan wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:55 pm
All data will include links to the corresponding games.
Yep. Love the links. Now if say me and you play in a ranked game together after the main game has broken up, I still think you should include those donates that me and you may make, but that's up to you. If you want to only stick to the main game that's fine. My thinking is the faster we accumulate data the better.
Dlan wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:55 pm
This will only cover first round calls.
What's interesting to me tho is that not all donates are equal. For me there are basically 3 categories of donates.

1) The up 9-7/9-6 donates. These are the simplest of donates. If you're unguarded you donate. Since we are always donating when we are unguarded these donates will have the worst expected outcome. Irishwolf once brought up that he suspected that some of these donates may not be correct. I suspect he is right, but I don't see how we could prove that without a real simulation. I wouldn't worry about that tho. But it's worth pointing out that these donates will perform the worst. A mitigating factor is the legal communication this play sets up, as 3rd seat can now make looser but correct calls to win the game knowing his P in S1 is always guarded, but this cool play barely ever happens in reality. It's always a pleasure when it does tho.

2) Donates when my team is up 2 points or more.

3) Donates when my team is up 1 pt or less.

I will have a distinctly different donating range for each of these 3 categories. Category 3 will have the tightest range and thus the best expected outcome although I don't expect there to be a huge difference between 2) and 3). There will be a large difference between 1) and the rest tho. As said 1) will perform the worst.
Dlan wrote:
Fri Jan 15, 2021 4:55 pm
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Scroll to the end of the spreadsheet for totals and average percentages.
I like the first 3 columns: Upcard, score, and first seat hand. And I like the links to the hand column. The rest seems unnecessary to me as it could all be condensed into these columns:

1) Cost of donate
2) Cost of passing
3) The difference between the two.

For example. I donate and get euchred. The cost of the donate is 2 points. But that donate blocked a 4 point enemy loner. So the cost of passing was 4 points. The difference between the two would be 4-2 = +2 pts. I.E. donating made my team 2 points. That running total is what we need in the spreadsheet. That's the critical number we need to capture. Sometimes a donate will not cost your team even if your P is guarded and your team gets euchred. That occurs when a pass would've led to everyone passing and S1's 2nd round call gets euchred.

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Post by Dlan » Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:35 am

By only showing the first round, anyone can look at the raw data and decide if they agree.

Projecting the outcome of a hand, and thus giving a plus or minus total, would require a lot of speculation. There are just so many variables. In its simplest form, say by leading a heart over a diamond, could change the outcome. We just don’t know if a hand would be played the same by all players.

Showing if a partner or an ace would have stopped a lone are important as these need to be factored in when deciding whether to donate or not. IMO, a consideration, especially at low scores.

I thought about adding games beyond those played on Monday by OE members. All of us want to win and play accordantly. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same for all on WoCG. The game shown below made me decide against it.


https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:51 am

Dlan wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:35 am
By only showing the first round, anyone can look at the raw data and decide if they agree.

Projecting the outcome of a hand, and thus giving a plus or minus total, would require a lot of speculation. There are just so many variables. In its simplest form, say by leading a heart over a diamond, could change the outcome. We just don’t know if a hand would be played the same by all players.
True, but we have no choice but to embrace this uncertainty becuz ultimately what we are trying to find out is if passing is better than donating in many of these spots. We can only do that by comparing the cost of donating to the cost of passing over many hands. Our biggest problem is reaching a statistically significant sample size, but I don't really care about that cuz this exercise will be fun to me. To estimate the cost of passing I simply play out all 4 seats doing what I think is best at each step without seeing the cards. This is not perfect but it is a decent approximation of reality and that's as good as it gets.
Dlan wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:35 am
Showing if a partner or an ace would have stopped a lone are important as these need to be factored in when deciding whether to donate or not. IMO, a consideration, especially at low scores.


I certainly wonder about many of my donates that include an off ace.
Dlan wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:35 am
I thought about adding games beyond those played on Monday by OE members. All of us want to win and play accordantly. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same for all on WoCG. The game shown below made me decide against it.


https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D
I think including ranked games will be fine. Obviously as long as at least 2 of us are there. No ranked games if any of us are alone cuz then we could be accused of cherry picking our sample.

Anyways, if there's a disagreement here don't worry about it. I like what you're doing. Just do what you wanna do as far as the spreadsheet, and I can always distill the data further. On my own, I'm still gonna keep track of my donates the way I started in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=484 But I'll switch to this thread. Right now my running total is 8 donates, +4 cost.

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Jan 20, 2021 3:01 am

Previous 1/12/21 total: 8 donates. Net gain: +4

Source: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=484

Donates from 1/18:

1)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Down 2-4. My donate gets euchred. If I had passed, the dealer would've called and gotten 1 point.

Net cost: -1

2)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 6-3. My donate gets euchred. Had I passed S2 would've went alone and gotten 1 point.

Net cost: -1

3)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 9-3. My donate scores a point. If I had passed, my P would've called and also scored a point.

Net cost: 0

4)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 6-4. My donate got euchred. If I had passed, either S2 or S4 is gonna call and they would've gotten 2 points anyways.

Net cost: 0

5)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Tied 7-7. My donate gets euchred. If I pass, S2 calls and their team gets 2 points anyways.

Net cost: 0

6)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 3-2. My donate gets euchred. If I had passed the dealer would've called and they would've gotten 1 point.

Net cost: -1

7)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Tied 4-4. My donate gets euchred. If I had passed S2 calls and his team gets 2 points anyways.

Net cost: 0

8)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 5-0. My donate gets euchred. If I pass, the dealer will make a 4 point loner.

Net gain: +2

9)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Tied 0-0. My donate gets euchred. If I pass, S2 will call and his team will get 1 point.

Net cost: -1

10)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 9-6. I feel like up 9-6/9-7 donates should be excluded or belong in a category of their own since I'm always donating if not guarded. Either way, I get euchred even though everyone would've passed, but my Next call also gets euchred.

Net cost: 0

11)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Tied 0-0. My donate gets euchred. If I had passed S2 would've went alone, but I would've led a club from this configuration and my P would've trumped in to stop the loner.

Net cost: -1

12)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 6-2. My donate gets euchred, but my P would've called and got euchred anyways.

Net cost: 0

Total 1/19/21 donates: 12. Net cost: -3

Further cumulative breakdown: I'm gonna separate my donates into 3 categories: Up 2 or more donates referred to as up 2+, Up 1 or less donates referred to as up 1-, and up 9-6/9-7 donates.

1) Up 2+ donates: 7 total, Net gain: +2

2) Up 1- donates: 12 total, Net cost: -1

3) Up 9-6/9-7 donates: 1 total, Net cost: 0

Cumulative up 2+ & up 1- donates: 19, Net gain: +1

Cumulative overall donates: 20, Net gain: +1

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Post by Dlan » Wed Jan 20, 2021 7:32 pm

I've added 4 games to the list. Although Richard2 was unable to attend, Wes, leftyK, and I were there.

In trying to keep this among OE members, I decided not to include the games that only Wes and I played later.

Interestingly, with 12 games in the books, 4 of those (25%) resulted in the donating team made a point.

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:12 pm

Dlan wrote:
Wed Jan 20, 2021 7:32 pm
I've added 4 games to the list. Although Richard2 was unable to attend, Wes, leftyK, and I were there.

In trying to keep this among OE members, I decided not to include the games that only Wes and I played later.

Interestingly, with 12 games in the books, 4 of those (25%) resulted in the donating team made a point.
Sounds good.

Just wanted to note that I am not a fan of the 12th donate (btw I do not recall who did this):

Image

Down 7-6 with 2 trump + an off ace you have to pass and gamble in that spot and hope for the best. S1 has too much of a hand to donate and most likely put his team down 9-6. If I had no trump+no aces I would donate in that spot tho. If I had no trump + 1 off ace I'd pass and gamble that one ace can save me. If I had one trump + no off aces I'm torn on what to do--that hand vs a Jack is pretty crappy too.

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Post by Dlan » Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:11 pm

After seeing the hand play out, plus or minus points could be calculated. However, any guesstimation of whether everyone would play it the same would be just that.

When deciding whether to donate or not, one has limited information. The up-card, the score, the cards one holds, and the possibility of the dealer's willingness to try lone calls.

The hope is, after looking at 100 donations, our readers will have a little more information to help in evaluating their decision.

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Post by LeftyK » Thu Jan 21, 2021 6:48 pm

Dlan wrote:
Wed Jan 20, 2021 7:32 pm
I've added 4 games to the list. Although Richard2 was unable to attend, Wes, leftyK, and I were there.

In trying to keep this among OE members, I decided not to include the games that only Wes and I played later.

Interestingly, with 12 games in the books, 4 of those (25%) resulted in the donating team made a point.
Yeah my brother and I says these are the "prevents that went" :)

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:48 am

Dlan wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 2:11 pm
After seeing the hand play out, plus or minus points could be calculated. However, any guesstimation of whether everyone would play it the same would be just that.
Yep, it's not that hard to figure out and yes there will always be some uncertainty in this but this approach will still be a very good approximation as many euchre hands kinda play themselves, and over a large sample the differences should basically average out anyways. And at the very least this approach will be even more accurate in tough games where players make few mistakes. Again tho, the most important thing to recognize here is that this approach is absolutely necessary becuz ultimate all that matters is the cost of donating vs the cost of passing. So we have to embrace the uncertainty to get a meaningful and potentially useful result. The fact that this model will not be precisely right isn't really important. What matters is that it is right often enough to be useful.

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:00 am

1/12/total: 8 donates. Net gain: +4

Source: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=484

1/19 total: 12 donates. Net cost: -3

1/25 donates:

1)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 5-2 with no trump,no aces. My donate gets euchred (this was my only donate of the night). Had I passed, S2 would've called and his team would've gotten 2 points.

Net cost: 0

1/25 total: 1 donate. Net cost: 0

Further cumulative breakdown: I'm gonna separate my donates into 3 categories: Up 2 or more donates referred to as up 2+, Up 1 or less donates referred to as up 1-, and up 9-6/9-7 donates.

1) Up 2+ donates: 8 total, Net gain: +2

2) Up 1- donates: 12 total, Net cost: -1

3) Up 9-6/9-7 donates: 1 total, Net cost: 0

Cumulative up 2+ & up 1- donates: 20, Net gain: +1

Cumulative overall donates: 21, Net gain: +1

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 2:33 am

1/12/total: 8 donates. Net gain: +4

Source: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=484

1/19 total: 12 donates. Net cost: -3

1/25 total: 1 donate. Net cost: 0

2/1 donates:

1)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 5-2. 1 trump, no aces, no 2nd rd hand vs TS upcard. My donate scores a point. Had I passed my P would've called in S3 and scored a point anyways.

Net cost: 0

2)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 5-4. 1 trump and an off ace vs a Jack. My donate gets euchred. If I had passed, the dealer would've called and scored a point.

Net cost: -1

3)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Down 3-1 with 1 trump, no aces, no 2nd rd hand vs QD upcard. I donate and get euchred. What's interesting is what would've happened if I had passed. If I had passed and the dealer picked up a biddable hand with R+1+doubleton Next Ace they get a point. But a better play for the dealer is to actually pass that hand and try to trap me becuz if the dealer passes he has a monster euchre hand. Let's say the dealer does correctly pass. Well now we have another problem.
Firstly, I would call Next with no trump-no aces. No problem there. That's how I roll. But if I lead off with a club my team gets euchred and if I lead off with a spade my team makes the point. We have Tc9c and Ts9s, which path I choose will effect the net cost of this donate. Well I actually know exactly which way I would go becuz all ties go to the left. IOW when I have two paths I could take that are truly equal I always choose the cards on the left side of my hand. That's a habit I formed long ago to ease the brain. And that's the way I'll always do it for these samples so any difference in what path I take will get averaged out over time. Ok then, so if I had passed and the dealer passed, I would lead a club and my team would get euchred.

Net cost: 0

4)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 6-3 vs a Jack with an unguarded Left and a doubleton green ace I donated and made the point. If I had passed, the dealer would've picked up and we would've euchred them based on how I play. I would've led off with the AS and got the first trick, seeing the dealer played a spade and could have another one, I would've led the QS on 2nd street. My P would've then trumped in for the 2nd trick. At that point if I'm in 3rd I would lead the KD. It's my dirtiest suit as I'm hoping the maker gets overtrumped for the euchre or if the dealer has a diamond I'm hoping my P can trump it for the euchre. Diamonds is also a good lead becuz the dealer is more likely to have a diamond than a club given that most people discard green. So leading the diamond checks all the boxes. It's both the suit my P is most likely void in and the suit the maker is most likely to still have. It turns out the AD was in the kitty and the KD walks for the euchre. So this is a weird outcome. Our donate gets a point. We're supposed to be happy but passing leads to a euchre!

Net cost: -1

5)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Down 0-1, I donate with 1 trump, no aces, and no 2nd round hand vs the QS upcard and get euchred. If I had passed, the dealer would've called and gotten 1 pt.

Net cost: -1

Further cumulative breakdown: I'm gonna separate my donates into 3 categories: Up 2 or more donates referred to as up 2+, Up 1 or less donates referred to as up 1-, and up 9-6/9-7 donates.

1) Up 2+ donates: 11 total, Net gain: +1

2) Up 1- donates: 14 total, Net cost: -3

3) Up 9-6/9-7 donates: 1 total, Net cost: 0

Cumulative up 2+ & up 1- donates: 25, Net cost: -2

Cumulative overall donates: 26, Net cost: -2

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Post by irishwolf » Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:50 am

Winning is the final goal. What is missing with the analysis and spread sheet is who won the game after the donation. Especially when you donate to put the side ahead in score. In particular mid and late in the game when your chances of making up the difference is narrowed. Donating other than the Jack up is highly questionable unless up by 3 or more points. Seldom will you be able to justify donating.

~Irishwolf

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Post by RedDuke » Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:40 pm

Down 7-6 with 2 trump + an off ace you have to pass and gamble in that spot and hope for the best. S1 has too much of a hand to donate and most likely put his team down 9-6. If I had no trump+no aces I would donate in that spot tho. If I had no trump + 1 off ace I'd pass and gamble that one ace can save me. If I had one trump + no off aces I'm torn on what to do--that hand vs a Jack is pretty crappy too.
Have to disagree with you on that one, Wes. That's a next Ace and it's not a singleton. There's a pretty good chance that Ace won't walk on a spades call, especially a first round one.

That hand as is will probably stop a sweep so I agree with you that it's too powerful for donating but I doubt that Ace will be good for a trick.

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:48 pm

RedDuke wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:40 pm
Down 7-6 with 2 trump + an off ace you have to pass and gamble in that spot and hope for the best. S1 has too much of a hand to donate and most likely put his team down 9-6. If I had no trump+no aces I would donate in that spot tho. If I had no trump + 1 off ace I'd pass and gamble that one ace can save me. If I had one trump + no off aces I'm torn on what to do--that hand vs a Jack is pretty crappy too.
Have to disagree with you on that one, Wes. That's a next Ace and it's not a singleton. There's a pretty good chance that Ace won't walk on a spades call, especially a first round one.

That hand as is will probably stop a sweep so I agree with you that it's too powerful for donating but I doubt that Ace will be good for a trick.
Even an Ace that doesn't walk still has value tho. Just forcing the maker to spend a trump on the first lead significantly lowers the chances his call will march. That's not really the point tho. I'm just saying I think that's a bad hand to donate with. The combination of having 2 trump which lowers the probability of an enemy loner + that off ace that can still save you if youre wrong, makes donating not worth it down 7-6 even vs a Jack.

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Post by Dlan » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:28 am

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:50 am
Winning is the final goal. What is missing with the analysis and spread sheet is who won the game after the donation. Especially when you donate to put the side ahead in score. In particular mid and late in the game when your chances of making up the difference is narrowed. Donating other than the Jack up is highly questionable unless up by 3 or more points. Seldom will you be able to justify donating.

~Irishwolf
That's a good idea. While it takes little more work, starting with next week's games, I will be adding that data.

As I delete games after review, prior info is lost.

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:15 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:50 am
Winning is the final goal. What is missing with the analysis and spread sheet is who won the game after the donation. Especially when you donate to put the side ahead in score. In particular mid and late in the game when your chances of making up the difference is narrowed. Donating other than the Jack up is highly questionable unless up by 3 or more points. Seldom will you be able to justify donating.

~Irishwolf
Yeah I don't really care about winning or losing. Just make the best play possible every single hand. That's what's important to me. Do that and the winning will take care of itself in the long run. Same goes for when I play poker. In each session whether I make money or not is irrelevant for me. That takes care of itself in the long run. If I lose $1,000 but play mistake free, I will drive home happy and sleep well. If I win $1,000 but make 3 bad mistakes I'll be upset with myself and probably toss and turn all night thinking about it.

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Post by irishwolf » Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:56 pm

"Just make the best play possible every single hand." Well and good but as I said, and I would bet the farm a bad decision in the Long Run when:

"Donating other than the Jack up even including those hands that are a sweep by the opponents."

And as this spread sheet goes on and on, you will see it play out. If I am wrong, I will KISS YOUR ASS! lol

~Irishwolf

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:12 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:56 pm
"Just make the best play possible every single hand." Well and good but as I said, and I would bet the farm a bad decision in the Long Run when:

"Donating other than the Jack up even including those hands that are a sweep by the opponents."

And as this spread sheet goes on and on, you will see it play out. If I am wrong, I will KISS YOUR ASS! lol

~Irishwolf
Yea I wouldn't be that surprised if I was wrong. Highly honed intuition from experience and study still can't beat out math/a good simulation. When you can't truly put something to the test you'll always be shooting from the hip to a degree no matter how much you study the game. So I'm going to be wrong about some stuff. It's inevitable. That said, I am a bit skeptical that this spread sheet or my logging of hands will get us to a statistically significant sample size enabling us to draw strong conclusions. But I'm not really worried about that. This project is still fun to me, and what we're doing here is still evidence. The evidence may not be that strong, but weak evidence is still better than no evidence at all. And there's always the possibility that new insights can be gained.

BTW I agree with your view that donating vs a Jack and donating vs a non-Jack really are two different situations. So much so that I need to break that down in my in my posts and I will do that in this thread in the future.

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Post by Tbolt65 » Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:24 pm

I understand both Wes's and Irishwolf's positions. What is the balance between donating and over donating? I believe wes is trying to find that out statistically to see if it does bolster his justifications for his donating situations. I however agree with Irishwolf's sentiments about over donating or what he is infering. I agree with that postion. As my own imperical data of play tends to back that up. Mind you its not math based but its evidence Ive personally seen in the tens of thousands games I have played and have stated on this subject matter before. I do disagree with Irishwolf's assertion about only the up card jack. Players, hand make up and score also are big factors.

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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:38 pm

1/12/total: 8 donates. Net gain: +4

1/19 total: 12 donates. Net cost: -3

1/25 total: 1 donate. Net cost: 0

2/1 donates: 5 donates. Net cost: -3

Further cumulative breakdown: I'm gonna separate my donates into 3 categories: Up 2 or more donates referred to as up 2+, Up 1 or less donates referred to as up 1-, and up 9-6/9-7 donates. There will not be an additional vs a Jack upcard/vs a non-jack upcard breakdown.

1) Up 2+ donates: 11 total, Net gain: +1

2) Up 1- donates: 14 total, Net cost: -3

3) Up 9-6/9-7 donates: 1 total, Net cost: 0

4) Vs a Jack donates: 13 total, Net gain: +4

5) Vs a non-Jack donates: 13 total, Net cost: -6

Cumulative up 2+ & up 1- donates: 25, Net cost: -2

Cumulative overall donates: 26, Net cost: -2
[/quote]

Small sample size but that's a very interesting result so for. My non-Jack donates are not doing good! In fact my non-Jack donates have not created even one Net gain situation for my team. It's all been -1s and 0s. This could just be me running bad on these donates or this could be a meaningful continuing trend. All I can say about that is stay tuned!

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 912
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:44 am

1/12/total: 8 donates. Net gain: +4

1/19 total: 12 donates. Net cost: -3

1/25 total: 1 donate. Net cost: 0

2/1 donates: 5 donates. Net cost: -3

2/8 donates:

1)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Score is 3-3. I donate vs the JH with 1 trump + a doubleton green ace and get euchred. Had I passed, everyone would've passed and I would've called Next with one low trump + an off ace and I would've scored a point. This is a rare outcome given that I didn't really even have a 2nd rd hand, but I'm certainly never passing in the 2nd rd at that score when I don't block reverse Next.

Net Cost: -3

2)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Down 6-0. I donate vs the JC with 1 trump, no aces and blocked a 4 pt loner.

Net gain: +2

3)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Score is 1-1. I donate vs the KH with 1 trump, no aces, no 2nd rd hand, and get euchred. Had I passed, the dealer would've called and gotten 1 pt.

Net cost: -1

4)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 7-4 vs the AC I donate with an unguarded Left + no aces and get euchred. Had I passed, the dealer would've called or went alone and gotten 1 pt.

Net cost: -1

5)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 2-1, I donate vs the JD with one trump, no aces and get euchred. Had I passed the dealer would've called and gotten 1 pt.

Net cost: -1

6)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 3-2, I donate vs the JS with no trump, one ace, and get euchred. Had I passed the dealer would've called and gotten 1 pt.

Net cost: -1

Further cumulative breakdown: I'm gonna separate my donates into 3 categories: Up 2 or more donates referred to as up 2+, Up 1 or less donates referred to as up 1-, and up 9-6/9-7 donates. There will now be an additional vs a Jack upcard/vs a non-jack upcard breakdown.

2/8 total: 6 donates. Net cost: -5

1) Up 2+ donates: 12 total, Net cost: 0

2) Up 1- donates: 19 total, Net cost: -7

3) Up 9-6/9-7 donates: 1 total, Net cost: 0

4) Vs a Jack donates: 17 total, Net gain: +1

5) Vs a non-Jack donates: 15 total, Net cost: -8

Cumulative up 2+ & up 1- donates: 31, Net cost: -7

Cumulative overall donates: 32, Net cost: -7

User avatar
LeftyK
Posts: 69
Joined: Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: North Carolina

Post by LeftyK » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:37 pm

Wes: My OE recall is that there the one bright spot that shows in blue down 0-6 still ended up a 0-10 whitewash. A game or two before that, is the one donation that kept you in the game and your team came storming back on us (I think we were up 4-0). But as it shows :
"2/8 total: 6 donates. Net cost: -5" , to me doesn't seems like a good donation night.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 912
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:07 pm

LeftyK wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:37 pm
Wes: My OE recall is that there the one bright spot that shows in blue down 0-6 still ended up a 0-10 whitewash. A game or two before that, is the one donation that kept you in the game and your team came storming back on us (I think we were up 4-0). But as it shows :
"2/8 total: 6 donates. Net cost: -5" , to me doesn't seems like a good donation night.
During the heat of battle I thought it wasn't that bad but last night turned out to be my worst donating result so far. That -3 I picked up really set me back, a rare occurrence tho when I'm blocking vs a Jack and I have no 2nd round hand. -3s would happen more often if I were blocking vs a non-jack with a 2nd rd hand which I will do but that hand type is score sensitive. Speaking of score sensitive, the hypothesis that the score basically doesn't matter vs a Jack upcard is holding up so far. The hypothesis that the score doesn't matter vs a non Jack upcard when one has a donation-type hand with no where to go in the 2nd rd is not holding up so well, but the sample is still small. I also think there are hand configurations we can tease out where that hypothesis may be true. E.G. no trump, no aces, no 2nd rd hand vs a non-jack. Maybe for that very specific hand the score will not matter. Who knows right now. What I can say so far is I'm running really bad with my non-jack donates. Haven't blocked 1 loner in 15 tries which is staggering to me considering the bad hands I'm donating with. Or one could argue I'd be running really hot in these spots IF I WASN'T donating :)

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 912
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:02 am

1/12/total: 8 donates. Net gain: +4

1/19 total: 12 donates. Net cost: -3

1/25 total: 1 donate. Net cost: 0

2/1 total: 5 donates. Net cost: -3

2/8 total: 6 donates. Net cost: -5

2/15 donates:

1)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 5-2 I donate against a Jack upcard with no trump+1 off ace and get euchred. As far as figuring out the cost of passing, this was a controversial hand. If I were in the dealer spot I would go alone with this 2 trump loner, and once that happens my S1 self would lead the KH and S4 would complete his 4 pt loner. So donating here creates a +2 swing but does it really? Is the KH really the best lead against a loner? Well we can't lead our single ace can we?

The problem with leading the KH from a KH9H set is you now will never stop an outside AHXH. We all know about the "never lead a single ace against a loner" dictate becuz if your P has 2 off aces you force him to guess on 4th street. But the biggest reason you should never lead a single ace isn't becuz of the rare times your P has the other 2 off aces. That's just an easy and in theory effective way of explaining why leading a single Ace is a bad lead.

The biggest reason not to lead a single ace is becuz IF your P has a void + a trump, he will usually only have one shot to use it, on the first lead. After that the maker will typically clean him out. So when one leads their single ace on the first lead they are effectively robbing their team of another way to stop a loner, I.E. those times you lead something else and your P trumps in to save the day. And it's a tragic and unnecessary robbery because those times our single ace is good it will be good any street as all you have to do is save it til the maker plays that suit.

That said, I have come across many strong players who believe there is an exception to the rule "never lead a single ace against a loner" and that is when you also have a suited Kx9x or a KxTx in your hand. Since Kx9x can never stop AxXx once you lead the King, and KxTx can only stop Ax9x once you lead the King, many strong players believe you should treat this configuration as another off ace. So in this case you would lead your single ace (AS), discard your other loser card as early as possible--in this case the QD--to signal to your P you are not covering that suit, and then when you play your 9D on 4th street a good P will know that means you're covering diamonds so even if he has the other two aces, he'll know to throw away the AD every time.

This exception by the way comes up in the last paragraph in this link:

https://members.tripod.com/~Borf_Books/ ... m#sorthand
"The answer is, if you have a king-high doubleton, it is at least as good as any your partner has. Many euchre experts believe you can treat a king-high doubleton as a second ace in your hand for the “Don’t lead an ace unless you have two” principle. You lead the ace on first trick and sit on the loner with your K-x. But if you don’t have even a king-high doubleton to go with your ace, defer to your partner’s doubleton (which might be a pair of aces, after all). If you lead from your longest suit (even if it is only a doubleton), you mnimize the risk of finessing your partner. Don’t lead your ace. Help your partner sort his hand."
What do you guys think? Is the best lead in this spot my AS or the KH? Do you agree or disagree that this is a good example hand to violate the principle "never lead a single ace into a loner".

Not relevant to this discussion but there is another clear exception to the "never lead a single ace into a loner" dictate. That's when you have 3 low trump Kxx or Qxx plus a single off ace. In this example, you'd want to lead your ace becuz that guarantees your team will stop a loner every time the maker has 3 trump.

Another controversial aspect of this hand is me just assuming S4 would go alone becuz I would go alone. The fact is 99% of the euchre population is NOT going alone with that hand. If we're really trying to capture the long run cost of passing it's probably best that our assumptions match up with reality as much as possible. Also a tangent that's not directly relevant to this discussion, but I don't have real proof that going alone with this hand is better than calling. It's never been put to the test as far as I know.

To avoid controversy here I'm just gonna take the easy and probably more accurate way out. I'll assume that the dealer would just call, and if he did I would lead my AS, and if S2-S4 plays the hand well, they will end up getting the 2 pt march.

Net cost: 0

2)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Score is 2-2, I have no trump, no aces, no 2nd round hand. I donate vs the 9C and get euchred. Had I passed, S2 would've called, I would've led the 9H, and the opposing team would've gotten 1 pt.

Net cost: -1

3)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Score is 5-5. I donate vs a Jack upcard with 1 trump + an off ace and get euchred. Had I passed, everyone would've passed and I would've called clubs and led the 9S and my team would've gotten 1 pt.

Net cost: -3

4)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 2-1, I donate with 1 trump, no aces, no 2nd rnd hand vs the KH and get euchred. Had I passed, S4 would've called and his team would've gotten 1 pt.

Net cost: -1

5)

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Up 6-0, I donate vs a KH with no trump, no aces, no 2nd rd hand and got euchred. Had I passed, S2 would've called and if their teams plays the hand well they get 2 pts.

Net cost: 0

Further cumulative breakdown: I'm gonna separate my donates into 3 categories: Up 2 or more donates referred to as up 2+, Up 1 or less donates referred to as up 1-, and up 9-6/9-7 donates. There will now be an additional vs a Jack upcard/vs a non-jack upcard breakdown.

1) Up 2+ donates: 14 total, Net cost: 0

2) Up 1- donates: 22 total, Net cost: -12

3) Up 9-6/9-7 donates: 1 total, Net cost: 0

4) Vs a Jack donates: 19 total, Net cost: -2

5) Donater has an off ace vs a Jack: 12 total, Net cost: -3

6) Donater has no off ace vs a Jack: 6 total, Net gain: +2

7) Donater has 2 low trump, no off aces vs Jack: 1 total, Net cost: -1

8) Vs a non-Jack donates: 18 total, Net cost: -10

9) No trump, no aces, no 2nd rd hand donates: 4 total, Net cost: -2

Cumulative up 2+ & up 1- donates: 36, Net cost: -12

Cumulative overall donates: 37, Net cost: -12

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