Weekly games 06/29 Hand #1
- Dlan
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My trump lead on the 4th trick broke the general rule and this time cost us a point. It may have even costed us the game.
I decided not to use the general rule for reasons. They still looked reasonable after seeing this post. 5 trump had been played so I had number 6. My Jd was boss. My calculation at the table was play the trump and if Opponents had it, so be it. I didn’t even consider Partner having the boss trump.
LOL. I started to analyze the hand and concluded I had a 2/3rd probability of taking 5 tricks as played (by leading trump). I then had a 1/3rd probability of Partner trumping my off suit lead and an 11% probability for a 44% probability of taking 5 tricks. I was convinced that my approach was correct. RFLO. Then it dawned on me. My Jd was boss if I lead it on the 4th lead, unless Opponents had the boss trump. All my trump lead accomplished was to waste Partner’s trump and cost us the 5th trick and a point. Ughhh!
Lesson: don’t go against the general guidelines until you have near certainty that you are correct.
I decided not to use the general rule for reasons. They still looked reasonable after seeing this post. 5 trump had been played so I had number 6. My Jd was boss. My calculation at the table was play the trump and if Opponents had it, so be it. I didn’t even consider Partner having the boss trump.
LOL. I started to analyze the hand and concluded I had a 2/3rd probability of taking 5 tricks as played (by leading trump). I then had a 1/3rd probability of Partner trumping my off suit lead and an 11% probability for a 44% probability of taking 5 tricks. I was convinced that my approach was correct. RFLO. Then it dawned on me. My Jd was boss if I lead it on the 4th lead, unless Opponents had the boss trump. All my trump lead accomplished was to waste Partner’s trump and cost us the 5th trick and a point. Ughhh!
Lesson: don’t go against the general guidelines until you have near certainty that you are correct.