Weekly Games 4-20, This week OE shows an entire game

Ask questions, discuss and debate your strategies, euchre polls and more
Post Reply
User avatar
Dlan
Site Admin
Posts: 199
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:08 pm
Location: Ohio

Weekly Games 4-20, This week OE shows an entire game

Post by Dlan » Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:51 pm

As most readers of this forum know, we have been playing weekly games for the last 3 -4 months.

To say the least, these games are very competitive. Passes are rare, blocks are common, as are lone calls. Trump is often named with minimum holdings.
The part that's not talked about is that partnerships are chosen, not by the players involved, but randomly by WOCG. At the end of the game to 10, no-one knows who their partner will be in the next game. The ability to adapt is crucial as every player has their strengths and weaknesses.

These games are always interesting. this last Monday was no exception. we had one game that ended in 4 rounds, and another, with the score at 9 to 7, that was decided on hand 14. Here either team had a shot at winning.

For the 10+ years that OE has been around, this site has shown many hands and how they have played out. WOCG allows us to show an entire game.

Follow along as we show each hand. Try and guess if it is the N/S or E/W team that wins.

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D


https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D


https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D




Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 718
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:24 pm

Such a sad ending to a great game. A very clean game too. I only spotted one clear misplayed hand:
After S4 leads trump on the 3rd trick and S1 plays under with the Qs and miraculously gets the trick, S1 now needs to lead the Right. His opponents already have 2 tricks in and S1's offsuit card, the Jd, is from a non-fresh suit, so it might be good. Results-wise this mistake didn't matter as S1 is set no matter what he leads on the 4th trick, but it would've mattered if S1 would have led correctly! After calling Next, the correct lead for S1 is the Jd in hopes of promoting the Kd for use later.

Richardb02
Posts: 379
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:36 pm

Image

S1 R2. Everyone passes in R1. The action is now on you in R2. Would you order this hand?
Play it out and post your comments.
It was my favorite hand of this game.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 718
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:52 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:36 pm
Image

S1 R2. Everyone passes in R1. The action is now on you in R2. Would you order this hand?
Play it out and post your comments.
It was my favorite hand of this game.
It was the worst hand in the history of euchre!!

Seriously tho, yes I'm aware that if S2 calls, we eke out the point for the win, but I can't make that call either. If we were up 9-5, it's a must call imo. Only blocking 1 out of 3 suits in the 2nd round, S2 should call light with L+1 and try to close out. Worst case scenario we're still up 9-7. I'd also make this call up 9-6. But up 9-7, when the cost of a euchre is super high, giving the enemy the ball at 9-9 with 65% equity, I don't think calling light here for defensive purposes is worth it with L+1+nothing. I could be wrong tho. Maybe a simulation would show that S2 should call with this marginal holding up 9-7. It's funny, given that you gotta call this at 9-9 from the 2 spot, there is only one 9-X score I'm not calling, 9-7. It's just a total F*** You spot. Life sux sometimes.

Edit:

I said:
Seriously tho, yes I'm aware that if S2 calls, we eke out the point for the win, but I can't make that call either.
But that is only true if S1 leads a club. Any other lead and S2 will end up euchred. The correct lead for S1 in that spot with two off aces and a trump vs a 2 seat call is to lead trump. If S1 does that, S2 is euchred.

Richardb02
Posts: 379
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:59 am

Wes, everyone loves a walk off grand slam! Everyone loves a successful Hail Mary that wins the game. Wow, do I miss sports!!That is, everyone but those on the receiving end. Everyone needs hope. The evidence that it can be done. The inspiration that they can call Alone down 7-9 on a weak call and have success. This is especially important during the Covid-19 invasion. Hopefully, everyone understands that I was inspired by online church today! Note, I’m not PC. I talk both politics and Christianity!

For the bad side of life though R1 S2 definitely sux! I would have ordered based on my BPS. The hand is actually 2 tics above an edge hand. BPS giving a strong weighting to being 2 suited (2 suits are Void). So, even if I back off 1 tic because I have Next covered and a 2nd tic because being up 9-7 strongly discourages ordering, as Wes explains, I still order. But, I certainly understand S2 passing. It is definitely a defensible decision. And for full disclosure, I may have still passed. I am the weakest of the players, on Monday nights, and may have knocked off another tic based on the strength of my opponents. Of course my partner is strong and partially offsets that advantage. Secondly I have recently added a “tic” for Bower + 1. I am still not 100% confident in that change, especially with Left + 1, in this hand. So during the pressures of a real game, I may pass under the same circumstances.

The most impressive difference from my play and my more experienced opponents, that I have discovered playing on Monday nights, is that they usually lead a trump when S2 orders up his partner. Wes recommended a trump lead if S2 ordered since S1 has 2 off suit aces, if R1 S2 orders. Wes, where is the point that you won’t lead a trump? No off suit aces? Perhaps 3 or 4 cards in an off suit, especially next? We would be fishing for a void and a trump from P.

Let me return to ordering from S2 R2. I will provide my guesstimates and let you determine the EV.
S2 ordering 65% success, 35% euchred, 0% giving up 4 points.
S2 passing Opponents: 50% pass, 26% 1 pt, 6% 4 points, 18% euchred
_________S2S4: 6% No order, 64% 1 pt, 12% 2 pt, 18% euchred

RedDuke
Posts: 335
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:22 am

Post by RedDuke » Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:12 am

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:52 pm
Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:36 pm
Image

S1 R2. Everyone passes in R1. The action is now on you in R2. Would you order this hand?
Play it out and post your comments.
It was my favorite hand of this game.
It was the worst hand in the history of euchre!!

Seriously tho, yes I'm aware that if S2 calls, we eke out the point for the win, but I can't make that call either. If we were up 9-5, it's a must call imo. Only blocking 1 out of 3 suits in the 2nd round, S2 should call light with L+1 and try to close out. Worst case scenario we're still up 9-7. I'd also make this call up 9-6. But up 9-7, when the cost of a euchre is super high, giving the enemy the ball at 9-9 with 65% equity, I don't think calling light here for defensive purposes is worth it with L+1+nothing. I could be wrong tho. Maybe a simulation would show that S2 should call with this marginal holding up 9-7. It's funny, given that you gotta call this at 9-9 from the 2 spot, there is only one 9-X score I'm not calling, 9-7. It's just a total F*** You spot. Life sux sometimes.

Edit:

I said:
Seriously tho, yes I'm aware that if S2 calls, we eke out the point for the win, but I can't make that call either.
But that is only true if S1 leads a club. Any other lead and S2 will end up euchred. The correct lead for S1 in that spot with two off aces and a trump vs a 2 seat call is to lead trump. If S1 does that, S2 is euchred.
The problem with the next suit is that there's only 5 cards in it. In this case, you have 3 so at least two people are void in it. That alone should tell you that you can't count on any of those cards taking something. Left + 1 is usually good for a trick and sometimes two if you're lucky. If you're particularly unlucky, it might be good for zero - especially since that other trump is pretty weak (if it was the ace, that would knock this hand up a tick imo).

You also have a strong partner that you can be confident of is going to call if he's got anything at all. In most cases, I'd pass here and let him decide.

The exception is if I'm particularly scared of S1 going alone in reverse next. That's a legitimate fear here. Since you already have most of the cards in next, you can bet though that if your partner passes here that he's loaded to the teeth with black cards. That greatly reduces the chances of a S1 loner succeeding. You don't have to worry about a next loner here because if S1 calls next, you'll have the right+3 and be in a pretty solid position to stop him.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 718
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:23 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:52 pm
It's funny, given that you gotta call this at 9-9 from the 2 spot, there is only one 9-X score I'm not calling, 9-7. It's just a total F*** You spot. Life sux sometimes.
Have to make a minor correction. I forgot about being up 9-8. I'm not calling at that score either.
Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:59 am
Wes, everyone loves a walk off grand slam! Everyone loves a successful Hail Mary that wins the game. Wow, do I miss sports!!That is, everyone but those on the receiving end. Everyone needs hope. The evidence that it can be done. The inspiration that they can call Alone down 7-9 on a weak call and have success. This is especially important during the Covid-19 invasion. Hopefully, everyone understands that I was inspired by online church today! Note, I’m not PC. I talk both politics and Christianity!
I must admit it was a very clutch play, and if I had to guess I would say 99 out of 100 players would've just called in that spot. After your loner sweep went through I figured you went to church recently or the euchre gods were making me pay for being an atheist anarchist socialist vegan! :)
Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:59 am
For the bad side of life though R1 S2 definitely sux! I would have ordered based on my BPS. The hand is actually 2 tics above an edge hand. BPS giving a strong weighting to being 2 suited (2 suits are Void). So, even if I back off 1 tic because I have Next covered and a 2nd tic because being up 9-7 strongly discourages ordering, as Wes explains, I still order. But, I certainly understand S2 passing. It is definitely a defensible decision. And for full disclosure, I may have still passed. I am the weakest of the players, on Monday nights, and may have knocked off another tic based on the strength of my opponents. Of course my partner is strong and partially offsets that advantage. Secondly I have recently added a “tic” for Bower + 1. I am still not 100% confident in that change, especially with Left + 1, in this hand. So during the pressures of a real game, I may pass under the same circumstances.

Let me return to ordering from S2 R2. I will provide my guesstimates and let you determine the EV.
S2 ordering 65% success, 35% euchred, 0% giving up 4 points.
S2 passing Opponents: 50% pass, 26% 1 pt, 6% 4 points, 18% euchred
_________S2S4: 6% No order, 64% 1 pt, 12% 2 pt, 18% euchred
I honestly don't know. Maybe calling is correct. Maybe it's not. On one side you have the BPS system, which relatively speaking is still weak evidence. On the other side you have expert intuition not really honed by statistical backing (I.E. most strong players would pass that hand even tho they don't really know the math behind the play), also weak evidence. If we were partners in a do or die tournament and you wanted me to make that call, I'd be like "Sure, fine. I like calling". So that tells you right there that the degenerate gambler in me sympathizes with your cause! In a game like euchre where passing is so costly I can't fault anyone for erring on the side of aggression in any close/debatable spot.

BTW, based on your system, would you also call up 9-8?
Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:59 am
The most impressive difference from my play and my more experienced opponents, that I have discovered playing on Monday nights, is that they usually lead a trump when S2 orders up his partner. Wes recommended a trump lead if S2 ordered since S1 has 2 off suit aces, if R1 S2 orders. Wes, where is the point that you won’t lead a trump? No off suit aces? Perhaps 3 or 4 cards in an off suit, especially next? We would be fishing for a void and a trump from P.
Firstly, let's talk about theory behind the play. S2's range here can be justifiably pretty wide given that he knows for certain his P will at least have 1 trump and 1 void*. So S2's overall range in this spot is relatively weak, and S2's greatest ally is knowing his partner has at least 1 trump + a void. Notice what happens when S1 leads trump:

1) S1 is attacking weakness (S2's weak range). Always good to attack someone when they are weak a la "Art of War"!

and critically

2) A trump lead by S1 is attacking the main advantage of a S2 call--the fact that his P, the dealer has at least 1 trump and a void. When S1 leads trump he takes out two of his enemy trump in one lead. If the dealer only has THAT one trump, S1 has totally annihilated one of S2's greatest strengths. And even if the dealer started with 2 trump and now still has 1 more, S1's trump lead still hurt the dealers ability to help out his P the maker.

Now this doesn't mean S1 should willy nilly lead trump every time S2 calls in the first round. There is definitely some nuance to this play. Ideally S1's trump lead should have a decent shot of benefiting his hand too.

For example assume S2 orders up the (Card_Q-H)

And S1 has a hand like:

(Card_10-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_K-C)

By leading trump and thus forcing out two enemy trump in one lead S1 is significantly increasing the chances that one of his aces will walk or another way of putting it, a S1 trump lead dramatically lowers the chances of the enemy getting 2 pts. Ok that's a good thing, and then you combine that good thing with the possibility that this trump lead could cause chaos--like imagine S1's trump lead takes out the dealers only trump, and now the Maker gains nothing from his P having a trump + a void. Now the maker may be in big time trouble given that you have two off aces! Your trump lead could cause the maker to go set.

Let's do some more S1 examples, assume the same (Card_Q-H) upcard was ordered up by S2.

(Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_Q-S) (Card_9-C)

This is also a candidate for a trump lead. S1 having 2 trump raises the probability that the dealer only has 1 trump significantly, so a trump lead by S1 has an even better chance of eliminating S2's great advantage of having a P with a guaranteed trump + a void. S1's trump lead also increases the chances his off ace will walk too, but that's only a marginal benefit.

(Card_K-H) (Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-S)

Any time S1 has 3 trump in this spot it is mandatory to lead it. The chances the dealer only has 1 is HUGE, so lead trump and try to eliminate the dealer from helping his P. Whether you get the euchre or not will probably come down to who has the key off suite ace(s).

(Card_J-D) (Card_10-H) (Card_A-C) (Card_J-C) (Card_A-S)

Yes, even at the risk of unguarding, I'm leading with the TH from this configuration vs a 2S call. With two off aces unguarding is very unlikely to burn me and if the Right comes out on the first lead or S2 plays under and my P takes the trick with a high trump we're in great shape for the euchre.

(Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_A-C)

Gotta lead trump for the same reason as talked about. You must attack S2's great advantage of having a P with a guaranteed trump + a void. Lead trump. Do your best to take the dealer out of the equation as a helper. But the question is which trump to lead? Edward likes to lead under in this spot, by leading the 9H, get control later in the hand with one of his off aces and then lead the Right. But I prefer leading the Right straight away. Why? Becuz this gives me control of the hand after the first lead, and if I know or think the dealer may have another trump, I now have the ability to lead trump again! to really make sure the dealer can't help.

(Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_A-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_10-D)

I play this hand the same as above. Lead the Right, and if I think the dealer has another trump, I would lead trump again. Cause chaos!! Take out that helper.

For more on this subject, there's actually some really good articles from this site on leading trump on defense:

https://ohioeuchre.com/E_NeverLeadTrmp2-Opps.php

Irishwolf also brought this play up in one of his recent threads:

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=351

*: I realize it is possible for the dealer to not always have a void if he has multiple off aces, but the vast majority of the time the dealer will have a void.

Richardb02
Posts: 379
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:44 pm

Wes, yes, I would order up 9-8 based on BPS.

RedDuke raises another reason in this particular hand. It is so strong in next that it predicts a strong reverse next opportunity for S1. I find this a common distribution when players donates in general. It is even more evident in this hand being 2 suited. And then it is reinforced by holding 4 diamonds. I think that this is an important consideration in donating in general and donating still applies up 9-7.

You didn’t illustrate S1 not leading trump to a S2 order. If all you have is 1 trump and junk, that would preclude a trump lead, wouldn’t it? Any other situations?

Thank you.


Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 718
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:36 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:44 pm
Wes, yes, I would order up 9-8 based on BPS.
Cool, I can certainly understand. When I pass a hand like we're talking about, I'm usually praying hard that my P the dealer will call becuz even up 9-8 it feels like game over if he passes becuz then odds are S1 will call black and either get a point and have 65% equity on the last hand or close out with a 2 pt sweep given that I have a dead hand defensively. This is certainly a spot I wish I could study deeper with that mythical euchre simulator.
Richardb02 wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:44 pm
You didn’t illustrate S1 not leading trump to a S2 order. If all you have is 1 trump and junk, that would preclude a trump lead, wouldn’t it? Any other situations?

Thank you.
Generally I don't lead lead trump from S1 vs a S2 call. I was just trying to highlight some exceptions when I do lead trump. If I have 1 trump and a bunch of garbage, I don't lead trump but sometimes I wonder....

Like say S2 orders up the (Card_Q-H)

And you're in S1 with:

(Card_10-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_10-D) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C)

You're 4 suited with 1 trump. You basically have a dead hand defensively. Perhaps the only positive thing you could do vs a 2S call is lead trump, forcing out 2 enemy trump with one lead. If your P has an off Ace, it may be more likely to walk now, and if you're P was lucky enough to have a hand that could euchre the 2S maker, your trump lead isn't likely to mess that up. I'm not sure about this. I don't lead trump out of this configuration but I wonder.

Same goes for this hand:

(Card_10-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_10-S) (Card_10-D) (Card_10-C)

Ok now we have 2 trump, which means the dealer is even more likely to only have 1 trump on a 2S call. A trump lead here could cause havoc, especially against an aggressive 2 seat maker, which everyone in our game is. Again tho, I'm not as confident this play is right with this hand. It very well could be tho. It sux that we don't have the tools to really study these spots.

Richardb02
Posts: 379
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:51 pm

The Monday night players have awakened me to leading trump from S1 to a S2 R1 order. Previously I went 100% of the time with the broader generality of never lead trump on defense. Now I can see leading trump more than 80% of the time against a S2 R1 order!

I’m a simple man and I like to look at simple analysis first. Unless S2 is a conservative caller, it makes sense to lead a trump, unless there is a contraindication. The only contra that I can see is an unbalanced card distribution.
Obviously, I only know what is in my hand, the up card and that S2 has not proven to be timid about ordering. So unless I have 3 or 4 cards in one suit, the probabilities favor a balanced distribution. The reason we don’t lead trump in general on defense, is to trump a void. Balanced hands and my hand being balanced, increase the probability that there is no void to trump! I think that it is that simple!

The outlier would be t, nn, rr (1 trump, 2 in next and 2 in reverse). A next lead has a greater probability of finding a void in P’s hand with that combination. That is the only “finesse” possibility beyond 3 or 4 cards in one suit, that I can conceive. I’m sure there may be a few others, but I doubt that more than a few exist.

I consider this a Hail Mary defensive play. We have 5 weak defenders. Only 1, the trump lead, have any chance to disrupt the offense. We have a deep safety! The opponent can’t order alone and get 4 points! S2 has voluntarily become our deep safety! So let’s go for disruption and our best shot at a euchre!

I think that I am channeling Dlan’s lessons. Hopefully we can coax him into commenting.

Post Reply