I played this loner perfectly but bad luck ruined me!

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Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 717
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

I played this loner perfectly but bad luck ruined me!

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:20 pm

https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

Is the statement in the thread title true or false. Explain your answer if you can.



irishwolf
Posts: 490
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:11 pm

Of course the statement is NOT true when one (either) of the opponents holds JD AH 9H. Leading the QH OR KH would get you out of this mess as this forces JD or AH or has to under play with the 9H while you still hold JH QH or KH.

Knowing the AS took the first trick, why play the JH? Sucked into the abyss.

Of course, that website I believe has weird opposing hands like such when in reality you have 4 trumps and 3 are out is an extremely low probability. But you had it!

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 717
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:50 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:11 pm
Of course the statement is NOT true when one (either) of the opponents holds JD AH 9H. Leading the QH OR KH would get you out of this mess as this forces JD or AH or has to under play with the 9H while you still hold JH QH or KH.

Knowing the AS took the first trick, why play the JH? Sucked into the abyss.

Of course, that website I believe has weird opposing hands like such when in reality you have 4 trumps and 3 are out is an extremely low probability. But you had it!

~Irishwolf
Correct answer!

Whenever one goes alone with

(Card_J-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_10-H)

or

(Card_J-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_Q-H) (Card_9-H)

With an offsuit non-ace card that loses the first trick, one should never lead the Right on the 3rd trick when they get the lead back. They instead should lead the KH or the QH.

By playing this way you will never get euchred with S1 or S3 is loaded with

(Card_A-H) (Card_J-D) (Card_9-H)

Now this strategy is not invincible. It is possible to get euchred playing this way when S1 has Ah9h and S3 has the Left, and the cards fall just right and S1 plays under on your Kh lead, giving S3 the lead when he takes the trick with the Left, and if S3 leads a suit S1 is void in you are toast. But this possibility is quite rare, certainly more rare then the times S1 or S3 is loaded with L-A-9 I believe.

Richardb02
Posts: 376
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:57 pm

I am “Ri,’ Richardb02, your partner. My mindset was that you ran into Left, Ace, X, 3 strong trump. So I had no problem with your call. I focused on my favorite word, next. In this case it means next hand.

Now on another level I can see what you and IrishW are talking about. “We”, Wes, lost the first trick. (This is actually a blessing! You have the opportunity to switch to a “make 1 point” mindset instead of a “make 4 points mindset.”) So instead of lead the Right (Wes’ and my normal 4 point mindset), to lead a low trump, to draw trump and force opponents to lead, is the winning approach.

But reflecting back, I don’t want to analyze that exhaustively. I counted 4 trump with a Right. You had a 95% chance of making 1 or 4 points with 4 trump. But you ran into LAx of trump. That is easy for me to live with those probabilities and even with the occasional euchre.

But with this particular hand, which is very instructive, you can see that there are only 3 cards in the wild. You can easily analyze more thoroughly. So you have the opportunity to make the better play of leading a low trump instead of the Right. That is why I appreciate the top 4 or 5 posters on OE, like Wes and IrishWolf. I would never think that deeply. But the forum on OE, gives me that opportunity.

But my approach is different. Wes and Irish have moved their success from 95% to 99% (my guesstimates). I am not interested in improving beyond 95%, not because I don’t like success but because I have other priorities in my life. Let me stress, this is not a dig at posters that want greater and greater success. I immensely enjoy reading their analysis. I greatly appreciate that they share their experience, wisdom and analysis with us. I only offer my approach to help others and to offer my approach. Read and enjoy the posts without responding but ask questions as soon as you have a legitimate question. I have and enjoy the game more than ever.

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