irishwolf wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:30 pm
The score is 6 to 3 your side ahead, you sit at seat 1 and the JC is the upcard. You hold the KC QC 10C 9C 10S at first seat.
1) Will you Pass or Order the dealer?
In the actual hand Seat 1's team was down 6-3 but I don't think that changes anything.
To get an idea of whether it's worth passing with this hand, let's take a look at a similar situation from Eric Zalas' "Power Euchre Volume 5" book:
My basic strategy: Against someone who will pass Right+1 I will order with the OP's hand. Against a more aggressive player who you can generally count on to order with Right+1, I will pass and trap.
irishwolf wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:30 pm
2) If you order what the odds of being euchred?
I don't know, but of course I will guesstimate!
To help hone my guess, I'll look to Hand 153 from Eric Zalas' Book:
The dealer turns down the
, and Seat 1 jumps the fence in spades with:
In a sample size of N = 238, this hand got euchred 20.59% of the time.
Now in the OP's hand we are ordering up the Right, a significantly worse scenario. So I'll guess that we'll get euchred somewhere around 30%.
irishwolf wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:30 pm
3) If you Pass, what's the chance the dealer will Pass?
First let's assume the dealer is aggressive and is never turning down Right + 1. So a key clue here would be figuring out how often the Dealer will have at least 1 trump in addition to the Right bower upcard. Mathematically speaking, "At least 1" = "Total - None".
Total = 18!/(18-5)! 5! = 8,568 combos
None = 16!/(16-5)! 5! = 4,368 combos
8,568 - 4368 = 4200
The dealer will have at least one more trump 4200/8568 = 49.02% of the time.
For those who don't like factorials, the probability the dealer has at least 1 more trump = [1 - (16/18)(15/17)(14/16)(13/15)(12/14)] = 49.02%
Note: There's only 2 trump unaccounted for in this hand, the AC and the Left.
16/18 represents the probability the first card the dealer looks at in his hand will not be a trump card. 15/17 represents the probability the 2nd card the dealer looks at will not be a trump card after he already knows the first card he looked at is not a trump, and so on.
Ok, so 49.02% of the time the dealer will have at least Right + 1 when seat 1 holds 4 trump. That's a good starting point for guesstimating at how often an aggressive dealer will order up. Now there are some hands an aggressive dealer may turn down even if he has another trump. Imagine if the dealer had hands like these if he passes the JC:
Or
A savvy aggressive dealer is passing both hands, as there's no sense calling marginal when you have a euchre hand should you pass. However a savvy aggressive dealer will also have many hand combos where he is picking up the Right with no other trump! For example:
upcard, and the dealer, a strong player, has a hand like this:
With two off aces, and only blocking 1 out of 3 second round suits a strong player is never passing this hand up 6-3 or down 6-3.
Even a hand like this you can expect a strong player to pick up:
upcard,
IMO Right + a doubleton green ace is an order when you block no suits at most scores. I would order this up 6-3 or down 6-3.
Ok so overall, knowing that the Dealer will have at least 1 more trump 49% of the time (and the Right + 1 hands that an aggressive dealer will pass on is a very small subset), and knowing that an aggressive dealer will pick up with other hand combos EVEN IF the Right is all he has, we can safely deduce that an aggressive dealer will be ordering up north of 50% even tho Seat 1 has 4 trump in his hand! How North of 50% is anyone's guess. I'll go with 55%, which implies I think the dealer will pass around 45% of the time.
irishwolf wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:30 pm
4) If the Dealer passes what is your strategy now (pass or make what)?
Up 6-3, easy Next call imo. But even down 6-3, I'm calling Next with 1 low trump and nothing else, leading the TS praying I hit my partner hard. Gotta bite the bullet someway, I'd rather go down firing then pass a potential nothing hand that has no red cards after the dealer turned down a black jack.
irishwolf wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:30 pm
Take a guess on how this played out?
I don't have to guess. I know how the hand played out
I'll just say I believe Seat 1 played the hand very well every street. And no mistakes were made by anyone in this hand.