ASSISTING AT 2ND SEAT WITH TWO TRUMPS

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irishwolf
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ASSISTING AT 2ND SEAT WITH TWO TRUMPS

Post by irishwolf » Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:24 pm

This post is for RedDuke, assisting with 2 trumps! Would you assist or Pass with this hand, AD upcard, score is 6 - 0 your team is up?

2nd Seat: 9d 10d Kc 10c Ah



RedDuke
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Post by RedDuke » Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:54 pm

At 6-0 probably. You've got nowhere to go in the second round and you have a spades void. Thus, odds are decent that somebody has a decent hand in spades. If it's first seat, you could have a loner on your hand and you've got nothing that can stop it.

With that said, this is an extremely thin call. Hopefully either the ace of hearts will take the first trick (unlikely) or first seat will lead spades. Make that AD the JD and I'm passing, especially if somebody like Wes is my partner.

With that said, if it's your partner in spades, you're probably going to get euchred on this. I'd rather be euchred than have first seat have a loner. The odds do favor your opponents having it though (18/24 unknown cards and your opponents have 10 of them plus you know 7 of the 18 unknowns are spades). The odds of first seat having a killer spade hand are about the same as your partner though. The problem is going to be that your partner will probably turn this down unless he has another heart or two, depending on his read on this. It's a safe bet that first seat won't let you even bid next round.

I'd order this up more for defense than anything else, although you might be able to eke out a point with it depending on what the other players have.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:53 am

RedDuke,

You did a pretty good job breaking this down and conclude you "probably would assist" more for defense than anything else. So here we have 2nd seat assisting, an actual hand I retrieved, just played that I captured for this discussion. In this hand, the dealer only had the one trump but did have the AC and they made a point against the opponents who with the JH, JD, QD & AS. I won't post it as not that interesting.

In you two posts on the hand Weekly Hand of 1/06 you did a lot of assuming, in general, for what 2nd seat would have if he/she assisted. In quoting, you said , "Irish - please tell me why you thought the maker is short on trump? You're holding the Right + 1 and he doesn't have the left (although you don't know where the left is but still)! Therefore unless he's a total moron, he's probably got 3 trump." "With that said, I do get Irish's thought process, I just think that he made a mistake in assuming that the maker only had two trump."
"If he only had two trump, he would have passed and let the dealer call."

Those were your words. A MORON to order with 2 trumps! On the hand in question you decided it was good measure to assist, this is the WEAKEST hand with trump. But I might do with with two trumps and two voids depending on the score. Not only that, it is actually a reasonable decision (not all the time as there are situations, scores, etc. not to assist) to assist with JUST TWO TRUMPS & and Ace of any size. I wouldn't do it without an ace. And I agree MOST players would PASS.

But you are way too conservative on you thinking, IMO. You will win two tricks Most of the time. But the reason it a good call is the majority of the time, the dealer will not have just the upcarded ordered to his hand. One can safely assume the opponent with the Right + 2 would have ordered, unless at 1st seat who could also go alone in Next. On doing this, I estimate you will stop loner attempts around 15 - 17% as all four Jacks are unknown and with opponents who have a 2 to 1 advantage.

So assisting with two + an ace, what is the expected result in the way of euchres? I estimate about 25% +/-5%. Some times you will have some marches. So your EV in the long run will be positive. Too many things can happen to sit there and Pass, Pass, Pass!

I won't go into what you should do on the defensive side.

~Irishwolf

RedDuke
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Post by RedDuke » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:52 pm

I didn't say MORON to assist with two trumps. I said that you should typically assume that the maker has three trumps if he assisted without the bowers. Most players won't assist in that situation. In the hand you showed in the video, the maker did actually have three trumps.

I asked why you would ASSUME that he only had two.

I've been euchred quite a lot when I'm assisting two only two bowers. I'd have to replay all the hands to determine what the actual percentage is. It's better to be euchred than give your opponents a loner though.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:56 pm

Beg to differ, quoting you you said, you check again what you said, "Therefore unless he's a total moron, he's probably got 3 trump."
Is Moron not in that that sentence? Go back and read what you said. Pretty plain to me.

I just gave you a hand where the Ace was the up card assisting with the 9 & 10. Yes most might not but MOST are not good players either. You can be euchred with both bowers, probably not playing them correctly either.

I already answered you question on what my strategy was at the time. It did not matter what the maker had, the dealer was the target. It would only be a bonus if he had two. READ it again what I said, no sense in stating it again.

I DID NOT recommend assisting every time you have two trumps. Of course it depends on the situation, score, players, etc. etc. But 30% is not out of the ordinary.

~Irishwolf

jblowery
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Post by jblowery » Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:03 pm

My minimums for ordering dealer to pick up (from 2nd) are rt+1, 3 low trump, or 2 low trump+2 off-suite aces. Does that sound reasonable?

Left +1 if I'm ordering up the right but that concerns me more because the dealer would have a good chance at a loner. Depends upon the score.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:25 pm

That is reasonable and pretty much standard not what I call classify as minimum or thin hands. But not ordering the Right unless at 8 or 9. But whatever works for you. Consider if you are the dealer, you should always put up with the Right + 1. So if you are at 2nd seat and have two small trumps + an ace and assist. Less than 25% (1 in 4 hands) will the dealer only have the card you ordered. Logically, then 75% (3 in 4 hands) the dealer will have more trumps, 48% will have just one (50% of the time one of the Jacks), and 25% will have 2 trumps which include the upcard. Even with just the upcard, will have one of the two other off suit aces half the time. In my book, those are pretty good odds to score a point. However, if you a partner that is strong with picking up with two trumps then consider Passing is also not a bad strategy.

"My minimums for ordering dealer to pick up (from 2nd) are rt+1, 3 low trump, or 2 low trump+2 off-suite aces. Does that sound reasonable?"

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:05 pm

jblowery wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:03 pm
My minimums for ordering dealer to pick up (from 2nd) are rt+1, 3 low trump, or 2 low trump+2 off-suite aces. Does that sound reasonable?
Assuming we're talking about neutral scores here: 2 low trump + 2 off suite aces is a controversial call in the sense that I know good players that would disagree with that call. I'm not sure myself on that but I do believe it is the right call, especially given that you'll often block no suits in the 2 round with this holding. I would also add to your calling range Left + 1 + an off ace when you don't block 2 out of 3 second round suits. This is a MUST call imo. Again tho I know a good player who disagrees with me but he's just wrong on that ;)

I also think that having just the Right but with two off aces is a call if you don't block 2 out of 3 second round suits, but again I know good players who disagree with me on that.
jblowery wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:03 pm
Left +1 if I'm ordering up the right but that concerns me more because the dealer would have a good chance at a loner. Depends upon the score.
That's a default call for me given that most people pass too much and don't go alone enough, but even if I have a bad partner I will pass if my team is down a lot or say for example down 9-6 and Seat 1 doesn't donate. Bad players get loner sweeps too. Sometimes you gotta hope to get lucky.

As far as the hand in the OP, I would call. 2 trump + an off ace becomes a call with a big lead when we block nothing in the 2nd round although I agree with RedDuke that if the Right is up and my partner is very aggressive I'd pass up 6-0. I actually know a good player who calls at 0-0 with this configuration for the same reasons, and I often wonder if that could be correct. With partners who pass too much and don't go alone enough, I'm pretty sure it IS correct. But she thinks it's correct no matter who your partner is (unless the Right is the upcard and your partner is strong). I'm not sure.

This would be one of those spots I would love to put to the test: Assuming one blocks nothing in the 2nd round, is it correct to call with 2 trump + an off ace at neutral scores even with a strong partner?

Tbolt65
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Post by Tbolt65 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:36 pm

To wes,

First round second seat, yes when I know my partners range is and that they are a weak in calling. Im ordering up. In the 2nd round I'm always calling those type hands.

When I'm calling I really don't have the mind set of blocking from dealer or second. If I'm calling it's because of score or I think my partners pass too much.

As for the actual hand in question. I probably pass unless my said conditions are met.

Tbolt65
Edward

Tbolt65
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Post by Tbolt65 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:25 pm

Opps, I forgot to add. I will pick up say the bare right perhaps one or two off aces if I feel a loner in next might put the opponents out.

Tbolt65
Edward

jspectre
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Post by jspectre » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:41 pm

I'll order this hand at any + advantage for our team, at a neutral score I don't want to risk it. With a single black ace I'd be more compelled to try this out at neutral scores, but with an ace in next I'm a bit more wary. With just an average skilled partner I don't see any reason not to give it a shot. I have two trump and an offsuit ace, and I'm giving my partner a strong trump card and the ability to create a void. We may get blown out by 1st seat leading both bowers, but then he was most likely going to get his point with a next call, and he could always have a loner. Hell, I call thinner than I expect my partner to, and there's plenty of times I would love for my partner to order me on a thin hand, because I was on the bubble. With a very good partner I may leave it up to them whether or not they can afford to pass and risk a next call, but if they only have two mid trump and no aces, they need my help to call, they can't make that call by themselves, and I have only a meager clubs call to make if the deal gets back to me.

RedDuke
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Post by RedDuke » Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:58 am

Beg to differ, quoting you you said, you check again what you said, "Therefore unless he's a total moron, he's probably got 3 trump."
Is Moron not in that that sentence? Go back and read what you said. Pretty plain to me.
Perhaps I phrased that wrong. The truth is... the probability that you are going to be dealt two trump is higher than the probability that you'll be dealt three trump. I have never actually seen a player call a hand this weak in any game of euchre I've ever played, which gets into game theory. Thus, I don't think that assuming that he did was a good call for you in that situation. The correct assumption for you therefore would have been that your partner had either 1 or no trump. If he has no trump, then no matter you do, they've got the point. If he had one trump you should lead into his void or into something that he can take with an ace. By leading the right, you're guaranteeing that you just stripped your partner of any chance to score the euchre.

I also should add that even in this scenario (where you're second seat, not third seat in the hand that brought on this discussion), you may have just robbed your partner of a diamonds loner. First seat passed, so he probably doesn't have a strong hand in diamonds. You clearly don't. Third seat might, in which case you could let him make the call and fight for a point. If he makes it, he probably had a decent chance of making it if you would have let him call and if he calls you might be able to at least him from getting two points.

At this point, the bowers are unknown. So your partner could very easily have something like this:

(Card_J-H) (Card_J-D) (Card_K-H) (Card_A-S) (Card_A-C)

in which case you just robbed yourself of winning the game.

In effect, you're taking a huge gamble in order to save yourself a potential spades loner from first seat. I'm not worried about a third seat loner in spades (although calling here will stop him from 4 points if he has something strong enough to order up the ace of diamonds! That's unlikely though with what you've got in your hand and the ace upcard... he'd almost need all four of the remaining diamonds and an offsuit ace to pull that off) because I'd never let the K-10 clubs call (reverse next) get past me. I might actually do it unless my partner is someone like Wes or Tbolt who would call this from dealer spot. But 90%+ of the euchre population is risk averse and won't call the hand you just posted. Thus, it's not really a good idea to ASSUME that your opponent is thin on trump.

BTW, if you've got a semi-aggressive partner like Wes, he's not going to pass on the Ace upcard if he doesn't have a way to stop a first seat loner in every suit. So yeah, I would order this up but I'll admit that I'm doing that assuming that my partner plays conservatively. If I've got a partner like that (and I know it), I'm passing unless I've got either three trump or right+1 from second seat. If third seat is loaded with diamonds, you're pretty much screwed whether you pass or not so...

I'm not trying to say that your thought process was wrong. You're correct that there was a very good probability that he was dealt two trump. But 90% of players or so don't call hands like this so I don't think that assuming that he was weak in trump was a good call. Nearly always if you're holding right+1 as the defender and you see second seat order up his partner then if you play as if he's got three trump, you'll see decent results. I've even scored numerous euchres by acting that way.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:51 am

NOT SURE WHAT YOU ARE SMOKING! JUST BS.

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:00 pm

With two trumps and two aces, I would call that every time most any score!

Wes said, "Assuming we're talking about neutral scores here: 2 low trump + 2 off suite aces is a controversial call in the sense that I know good players that would disagree with that call. I'm not sure myself on that but I do believe it is the right call,. . ."

~Irishwolf

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:16 pm

Ordering or assisting that is with two trumps + an off suit Ace you will average a positive EV with many hand played. I estimate a euchre rate 25-30%. However, be sure to pick you spot when it is to your advantage. For example, Jack is up behind in score, leave it alone.

~Irishwolf

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:40 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:16 pm
Ordering or assisting that is with two trumps + an off suit Ace you will average a positive EV with many hand played. I estimate a euchre rate 25-30%. However, be sure to pick you spot when it is to your advantage. For example, Jack is up behind in score, leave it alone.

~Irishwolf
What would you do with this hand (score is 0-0):

(Card_K-H) upcard.

The action's on you in the 2 seat with:

(Card_Q-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_A-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_9-S)

Would your action change if your partner was an expert, average player, or weak player?

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:29 pm

At 0 to 0, with weaker players I have to be more conservative. Even with expert player, I have to play my hand. I have little defense against Next, so I am assisting unless well behind in score. Even though the expert player may pick up as he/she know to consider defending against a next loner. But also knows when to lead trump too (at least those who partner with me).

Weak players if they win a trick will lead trump to you and that Kills this type of hand. Of course lead trump if you have the right or three or two aces. You have to know how to play these type of hands. Sometimes you want to knock down the door but other times, it's sneak in the back!

So again, IT ALL DEPENDS!

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:04 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:29 pm
At 0 to 0, with weaker players I have to be more conservative. Even with expert player, I have to play my hand. I have little defense against Next, so I am assisting unless well behind in score. Even though the expert player may pick up as he/she know to consider defending against a next loner. But also knows when to lead trump too (at least those who partner with me).

Weak players if they win a trick will lead trump to you and that Kills this type of hand. Of course lead trump if you have the right or three or two aces. You have to know how to play these type of hands. Sometimes you want to knock down the door but other times, it's sneak in the back!

So again, IT ALL DEPENDS!
Good post IW, if this call is correct with a strong partner, I would hypothesize that it would be with a weak partner too. Yes it's true that the weak partner can play badly and often screw up your marginal hand, but maybe this call is still worth the trouble because a weak player will also pass quite a few biddables in this spot too. Hands like Right + 1, Left + 1 + an off ace, two trump + two aces, 3 low trump 3 suited no ace hands. Given that you block nothing in the 2nd round with no where to go in the 2nd round offensively should the action even get back to you (I mean I'm calling clubs but I don't like it), the last thing we want is the dealer passing in the first round.

This kindve marginal call you're talking about here is definitely controversial in the sense that I think even most good players would disagree with you, but I think it's the right play. I just wish there was a way to prove it.

So if you're my partner and you call from the 2 seat in the first round, and say I take the first trick, the basic strategy on my part is I should not lead you trump unless that trump lead can help my hand, correct? (obviously if I have the Right I'm leading it no matter what)

E.G. You call hearts from the 2 seat, 1st rd with

(Card_Q-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_A-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_9-S)

I'm the dealer and I have:

(Card_K-H) (Card_J-D) (Card_A-S) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C)

Seat 1 leads a Spade, and I take the trick with my AS, I should now play one of my low clubs, correct?

However, if Seat 1 leads the (Card_Q-D) , you throw off with your 9C, and I take the trick by trumping in with the KH, should I lead the Left here becuz a trump lead can help my hand given that I have an off ace to promote? (I think I can see why you want me to have 2 off aces in this spot). If I shouldn't lead trump here, should I lead into your probable void with my AS? Or should I lead one of my low clubs?

irishwolf
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Post by irishwolf » Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:57 am

No doubt a thin call but it's playing defense on offense. Built on the premise that it is easier to score a point than getting euchred. A euchre is seldom accomplished by one opponent taking all three tricks, and takes a well coordinated attack. Even if my partner wins the first trick and happens to lead trump (not a bower) it's not all bad if he has an ace and I still have my ace and will he lead trump again (having JJ or JA)? Of course if he did and has the other ace, it's curtains. Statistically, that won't happen very often (7% or so) and probably stopped a loner attempt in next. I can live with that.

Even when both opponents, with the Jacks split, one being guarded, do not lead trump on defense. And one does not know what the maker has or their partner. It's a guess sometimes knowing when to pull the trigger. I as the maker could have three trumps or either bower when assisting - "catch me if you can."

I don't make posts unless I am confident in what I am talking about (the euchre rate as posted). I have done enough, tracked enough hands giving me sufficient proof. True most good players shy away from assisting with this hand. Euchre is a game of Aggression for long-term winning percentage! Sometimes you guess wrong but as long as you are making the right call the majority of the time you will do well. If your results is only 50:50 you better re-evaluate what you are doing! That's my theory on Euchre and does not fit Eric's guidelines, lol.

"This kindve marginal call you're talking about here is definitely controversial in the sense that I think even most good players would disagree with you, but I think it's the right play. I just wish there was a way to prove it."

~Irishwolf

Tbolt65
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Post by Tbolt65 » Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:07 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:29 pm
At 0 to 0, with weaker players I have to be more conservative. Even with expert player, I have to play my hand. I have little defense against Next, so I am assisting unless well behind in score. Even though the expert player may pick up as he/she know to consider defending against a next loner. But also knows when to lead trump too (at least those who partner with me).

Weak players if they win a trick will lead trump to you and that Kills this type of hand. Of course lead trump if you have the right or three or two aces. You have to know how to play these type of hands. Sometimes you want to knock down the door but other times, it's sneak in the back!

So again, IT ALL DEPENDS!
Yes it does, and good points.

Tbolt65
Edward

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