WHAT SHOULD ELDEST DO NOW

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irishwolf
Posts: 319
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

WHAT SHOULD ELDEST DO NOW

Post by irishwolf » Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm

Here is a hand to chew on:

You are at eldest seat, score is 5 to 5. The QS went down and you hold JC, 10C JH AH & 10h. Are you going to

a) Call Next, clubs?
b} Call hearts?
c) Pass?

If you make trump what will you lead?

If the JH was instead the JD what would you do?

~Irishwolf



patiencepays
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:55 pm

Post by patiencepays » Thu Dec 26, 2019 10:33 pm

Q1 - call hearts

Q2 - Lead Jh, then Jc

Q3 - Call clubs, lead Jc, then Ah

Tbolt65
Posts: 166
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:18 am

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm
Here is a hand to chew on:

You are at eldest seat, score is 5 to 5. The QS went down and you hold JC, 10C JH AH & 10h. Are you going to

a) Call Next, clubs?
b} Call hearts?
c) Pass?

If you make trump what will you lead?

If the JH was instead the JD what would you do?

~Irishwolf

Calling hearts. Leading 10 clubs.

If jack of hearts is jack of diamonds. Lead jack of diamonds.

Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:40 am

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm
Here is a hand to chew on:

You are at eldest seat, score is 5 to 5. The QS went down and you hold JC, 10C JH AH & 10h. Are you going to

a) Call Next, clubs?
b} Call hearts?
c) Pass?

If you make trump what will you lead?
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm
If the JH was instead the JD what would you do?
I'm with Edward (Tbolt). Call hearts and lead the TC. I used to lead the Right in that spot, but I've since changed up after testing out Edward's general claim that when you jump the fence with Right + 2 + no off aces you're better off leading a garbage suit (not the turned down suit) basically setting yourself up for an end play later in the hand on the first lead. This is a defensive/conservative line that gives you a better chance to take 3 tricks without needing much of your partner's help. I was skeptical of Edward's claim but after testing it out for thousands of games, I'm now convinced he's right. IME this line get's euchred less often than the alternative line, leading the Right. That said, it's one of those spots where we'll never know without the mythical euchre simulator.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm
If the JH was instead the JD what would you do?
In that case I would pass in the 2nd round since we now have a decent euchre hand.

patiencepays
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:55 pm

Post by patiencepays » Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:16 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:40 am
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm
Here is a hand to chew on:

You are at eldest seat, score is 5 to 5. The QS went down and you hold JC, 10C JH AH & 10h. Are you going to

a) Call Next, clubs?
b} Call hearts?
c) Pass?

If you make trump what will you lead?
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm
If the JH was instead the JD what would you do?
I'm with Edward (Tbolt). Call hearts and lead the TC. I used to lead the Right in that spot, but I've since changed up after testing out Edward's general claim that when you jump the fence with Right + 2 + no off aces you're better off leading a garbage suit (not the turned down suit) basically setting yourself up for an end play later in the hand on the first lead. This is a defensive/conservative line that gives you a better chance to take 3 tricks without needing much of your partner's help. I was skeptical of Edward's claim but after testing it out for thousands of games, I'm now convinced he's right. IME this line get's euchred less often than the alternative line, leading the Right. That said, it's one of those spots where we'll never know without the mythical euchre simulator.
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm
If the JH was instead the JD what would you do?
In that case I would pass in the 2nd round since we now have a decent euchre hand.
Just my opinion, because I have neither statistics nor probabilities to support my line of play mentioned in my earlier post.

I would not pass 2nd round as I see a huge weakness in this hand to defend against my raised expectation of 2nd or 4th seat Diamonds call that could end in a loner scoring. The potential to see a loner come from either is certainly there. Considering what hearts you hold in 1st seat, if you pass the 2nd round, I can only see a hearts call from an opponent holding the other 4, which is unlikely since a black suit was turned down, from a weak player, or, from a weak STD call.

Couple that thought with the rule of thumb of not passing since " thou shalt not pass with a biddable hand"

My thousands of hands experience has me satisfied with a right bower lead upon calling hearts. Leading your Bower, followed by one of your doubleton non trump cards will remove some damaging trump threat your opps may be holding (eg: one trump in each opps hands) while potentially strengthening the value of a later second non trump lead. I'd would hate to lead off with a small non trump lead before I scoop trump and have my partner play the ace of that suit, only to have him/her lose that trick to an opps trump card and lose an opportunity for 2 points score on the first trick. In this case, you make trump and hold the right, lead it.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:29 pm

patiencepays wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:16 pm
Just my opinion, because I have neither statistics nor probabilities to support my line of play mentioned in my earlier post.

I would not pass 2nd round as I see a huge weakness in this hand to defend against my raised expectation of 2nd or 4th seat Diamonds call that could end in a loner scoring. The potential to see a loner come from either is certainly there. Considering what hearts you hold in 1st seat, if you pass the 2nd round, I can only see a hearts call from an opponent holding the other 4, which is unlikely since a black suit was turned down, from a weak player, or, from a weak STD call.
I have all loners blocked if we change the JH to the JD. And it's very possible for the 2 seat to call hearts now becuz the JH is out in the wild.
patiencepays wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:16 pm
Couple that thought with the rule of thumb of not passing since " thou shalt not pass with a biddable hand"
That's a good rule of thumb for beginners, but there's actually quite a few spots in this game where it is correct to pass with a biddable hand.
patiencepays wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:16 pm
My thousands of hands experience has me satisfied with a right bower lead upon calling hearts. Leading your Bower, followed by one of your doubleton non trump cards will remove some damaging trump threat your opps may be holding (eg: one trump in each opps hands) while potentially strengthening the value of a later second non trump lead. I'd would hate to lead off with a small non trump lead before I scoop trump and have my partner play the ace of that suit, only to have him/her lose that trick to an opps trump card and lose an opportunity for 2 points score on the first trick. In this case, you make trump and hold the right, lead it.
I don't have hard data either, so I wont dig my heels in on this one.

irishwolf
Posts: 319
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:48 am

Actual hand, Eldest called Hearts. Played out as follows:
The dangers of crossing the suit.

CROSS THE SUIT: EUCHRED WITH H’s: Th fact that 2nd seat went 2nd Hand Low allowed this euchre. It's bad luck that 2nd seat had a higher trump than 3rd seat helped the defense. The down side of leading from a doubleton and even promoting a Queen or King is this double lead back. Especially with two small off suit (doubleton). Then it depends on help from the maker's partner. Most of the time, leading like this you will make your point, but there are exceptions such as this hand. No question, IMO, if eldest had the AC, lead the JH then the AC (should then go alone). Here if eldest leads the JH to the first trick followed by a low club a point is made.

Trick: 1 2 3 4 5 Hearts is trump!
1st JC TC Th Jh AH
2nd 9D Kh KD 9S KS
3rd QC KC 9H TD QD
4th Ac 9C AS QH Jd Dealer must slough the AS on trick 3.

Interesting, the Power of Next if called. If eldest calls Next (Clubs) and leads the JC followed by the AH, then another heart, he also will make his point. Left was buried.

~Irishwolf

patiencepays
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:55 pm

Post by patiencepays » Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:09 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:48 am
Actual hand, Eldest called Hearts. Played out as follows:
The dangers of crossing the suit.

CROSS THE SUIT: EUCHRED WITH H’s:

The fact that 2nd seat went 2nd Hand Low allowed this euchre.

"Second hand low" off the Jc lead here would not be my bag considering, 1. being the maker 1st seat failed to lead trump, indicating weakness. 2. It's not as if he holds the right bower or protected left which could aid in a euchre or in the least hold the opposition to a single point later. 3. highly likely both 3rd and 4th seat have a club, since 2nd seat is void in clubs and his partner had turned down a spade.
I'd say jump in with the Kd with the prime intent of breaking up the 2 point potential now.

Without further evidence of which should be the correct lead, the outcome of this particular hand could well be blamed on the failure to lead the JH, rather than attribute the euchre on "second hand low".




It's bad luck that 2nd seat had a higher trump than 3rd seat helped the defense. The down side of leading from a doubleton and even promoting a Queen or King is this double lead back. Especially with two small off suit (doubleton). Then it depends on help from the maker's partner.

Most of the time, leading like this you will make your point

Irish, can you verify the immediate above statement with evidence or shall it remain conjecture at this point?



No question, IMO, if eldest had the AC, lead the JH then the AC (should then go alone). Here if eldest leads the JH to the first trick followed by a low club a point is made.

Trick: 1 2 3 4 5 Hearts is trump!
1st JC TC Th Jh AH
2nd 9D Kh KD 9S KS
3rd QC KC 9H TD QD
4th Ac 9C AS QH Jd Dealer must slough the AS on trick 3.

Interesting, the Power of Next if called. If eldest calls Next (Clubs) and leads the JC followed by the AH, then another heart, he also will make his point. Left was buried.

~Irishwolf

Interestingly, change the Jh in 1st seats hand to the Jd and it appears trump would have been made after 7 passes, off the STD, and the dealing team would have scored the point.

Richardb02
Posts: 246
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:32 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:40 am
irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm
Here is a hand to chew on:

You are at eldest seat, score is 5 to 5. The QS went down and you hold JC, 10C JH AH & 10h. Are you going to

a) Call Next, clubs?
b} Call hearts?
c) Pass?

If you make trump what will you lead?
I'm with Edward (Tbolt). Call hearts and lead the TC. I used to lead the Right in that spot, but I've since changed up after testing out Edward's general claim that when you jump the fence with Right + 2 + no off aces you're better off leading a garbage suit (not the turned down suit) basically setting yourself up for an end play later in the hand on the first lead. This is a defensive/conservative line that gives you a better chance to take 3 tricks without needing much of your partner's help. I was skeptical of Edward's claim but after testing it out for thousands of games, I'm now convinced he's right. IME this line get's euchred less often than the alternative line, leading the Right. That said, it's one of those spots where we'll never know without the mythical euchre simulator.
I want to start by disagreeing with leading a small non-trump (Corrected was trump) based on Tbolt’s guidance. I went back to the thread started July 12 and I don’t think that Tbolt’s guidance matches Wes’ summary, “ I've since changed up after testing out Edward's general claim that when you jump the fence with Right + 2 + no off aces you're better off leading a garbage suit (not the turned down suit) basically setting yourself up for an end play later in the hand on the first lead.” I would welcome reviewing the pros and cons of leading the Right vs. leading small but that is just my opening topic.

Of more strategic value is a discussion of what to call. I think the BPS helps to sniff out some hidden value.

BPS Next:
0.50 S1 R2
0.75 Next
1.00 Jc
0.25 Tc
0.25 Ah (Tripleton Green Ace)
0.75 2 Voids
3.50

BPS Reverse Next
0.50 S1 R2
0.00 Reverse Next
1.00 Jh
0.50 Ah
0.25 Th
0.75 2 Voids
0.75 3 Trump with strength
3.75 A strong hand, a small but significant advantage vs Next

Even more interesting is that 3.75 points is precisely the minimum points, when you look towards calling Alone.

The logic is that the points are based on Right = 1.00 trick/point with a 100% chance of success. Other cards or combinations cannot guarantee a trick 100% of the time (except the handful of exceptions where you don’t need BPS or any other analysis). So it takes more than 1 point to expect to take 1 trick. Since BPS increments in 0.25 units, 1.25 was the starting point and based on experience I am satisfied that it delivers 95% success. So I expect to take 2 tricks with 2.50 points, 3 tricks with 3.75 points etc, with 95% confidence.

So 3.75 points makes me look extra hard to justify an alone. With Reverse Next, 3.75 points of 3.75 points are based on my cards. I don’t need Partner to take 3 tricks. (With Next, 0.75 points of the 3.50 are based on Partner’s cards)! A big difference.

So now I look for reasons to justify calling a lone. With this particular hand the QKA of clubs could stop this hand. A protected Left could stop an alone. Let me demonstrate my crude analysis. I will bury Partner’s 5 cards and 3 in the kitty. Opponents have 10 cards. So I have an 8/18 or 44% chance in my favor that 1 card is buried. I have a 0.44 square chance or 20% chance that 2 cards are buried. I have a 0.44 cubed chance of 9% chance that 3 cards are buried. I then remember that I have a 30% 4 point success rate when I call alone. So 9% is definitely too low. Now 30% is definitely too high, since this isn’t my strongest loner call. Hopefully we can agree at 15% possibility of 4 points. The key point to me, I have a 95% opportunity for 1 or 4 points. If going for 2 points is not dictated by the score, error on the side of calling alone.

Let’s do some more rudimentary analysis.
If I go for 4 points. I have a 5% chance of being euchred, 15% 4 point, 80% 1 point.
5%x-2+15%x4+80%x1= -.1+.6+.8=+1.30
If I go for 2 points, I have a 5% chance of being euchred, 15% 2 point, 80% 1 point.
5%x-2+15%x2+80%x1=-.1+.3+.8=1.00
That’s a huge 30% improvement. I am going alone!
Reasonable players may argue that partnering will earn 2 points 30% of the time.
There has to be room for disagreement. Let’s do an EV.
5%x=2+30%x2+65%x1= -.1+.6+.65= 1.15
I still see a big advantage to going alone.

Why did I start with disagreeing on what to lead? BPS helps me there too. This is a power hand. Because 87% of the cards are distributed, 95% of the time, if my hand is strong, Opp are weak. My advantage is reinforced by leading strong, play the Right. Playing a weak trump in this scenario is frankly, weak. Tbolt’s 7/12/19 thread did not address a strong trump hand like this hand. I took it to be applied to a hand that is strong in off suit aces, not in trump. This hand, when calling Reverse Next, is strong in trump and has nothing in off suit aces.


Last edited by Richardb02 on Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Tbolt65
Posts: 166
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Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:49 pm

To clear things up. I'm not leading low trump on the hand in question. Personally I can play hearts or clubs but for this scenario I choose to play Hearts. Now here comes into question of what to play on opening lead. Lead the Right bower or lead the Jack of clubs. Again. I can go either way. I can lead club to "play it safe" and just cut or potentially sluff of a card on a trick so my partner or my opponents may take it depending on how the hand is shaping up. Or I can lead the Jack of hearts, still having AH, 10h still an effective second trick, but I Need to get three to make point. Then leading Next(the Jack of clubs) to my partner in hopes of him taking it or forcing a trump out. I'll potentially have a higher rate of making 2 if I lead the right bower if everything falls just right but at the same time I open myself up to potentially getting euchred if the trump and cards are distributed between the dealer and second seat. With my partner not being of much help.

So in this spot at 5-5, I chose to go with Leading the jack of clubs so I can play behind my opponents and sometimes my partner may take the first trick which could also lead to taking 2 points if the cards fall right.

Now in rare cases I do get euchred in spots like this but not often enough to say, hey this is a bad line to take. I have found it has helped me WAY more than it's hurt me.

Tbolt65
Edward

patiencepays
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:55 pm

Post by patiencepays » Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:53 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:32 pm
I then remember that I have a 30% 4 point success rate when I call alone. So 9% is definitely too low. Now 30% is definitely too high, since this isn’t my strongest loner call. Hopefully we can agree at 15% possibility of 4 points. The key point to me, I have a 95% opportunity for 1 or 4 points. If going for 2 points is not dictated by the score, error on the side of calling alone.
I like the assessment you have made for this hand as it relates to hearts as trump, with one exception. I believe (no proof either) that your application of a 15% march rate for both w/partner and w/o partner is much too high, because of the following 1. having only 2 little clubs 2. a potential left protected in an opps hand 3. the fact spades (black suit) was turned down. and 3. you get no help from your partner on your lone calls to win club tricks.

I suggest a more conservative speculation, 7-10% march rate going alone, and w/partner 12-15%. But it remains, calling hearts and leading the right brings fine results.

Aside, I don't recognize that your personal loner rate has any relationship to the lone rate one can expect from this particular hand.

...just a 2 cents worth
Patiencepays (off for me)

irishwolf
Posts: 319
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:07 pm

Patience to your comment and question below:

Most of the time, leading like this you will make your point

Irish, can you verify the immediate above statement with evidence or shall it remain conjecture at this point? (I am giving more details than usual so you can see my analysis.)

The answer is Yes I can. Actually, this was an old euchre teaser I worked on as it pops up a lot, even when eldest orders the dealer. I worked on this with two approaches. The first being statistical combinations. Outline or summation is this:
1) You have four unknown trumps JD KH QH & 9H. So where is the danger zone?
2) When one opponent has three trumps (3.2% and one must be the JD. So round it to 3% but there are 2 opponents = 6%.
3) When both opponents have 2 trumps each which is 6.5%, and one has to have the AC or two clubs, one winning the JC lead by eldest.
4) Also when one opponent has the JD guarded (18%) and when either he or his partner having the AC & KC/QC combination and Eldest partner has no trump. There are four clubs but three highest clubs are the most meaningful if as a doubleton. They will grab eldest's (both) clubs. Having two of four clubs is the same as having 2 of 4 trumps - 25%. Keep in mind this is only of value when the JD is guarded. And it makes NO DIFFERENCE, leading the JH when this occurs because the AC/KC/QC combinations in the hands of the opponents are just as important as having the JD guarded. The AC/9C is no of great help as maker has 10C to cover the 9C. This little fact is often overlooked.

You never know with statistical analysis as being EXACT as how the combinations that line up as Eldest partner may have a trump or an ace of AD/AS/AC that assists. So the maximum euchres are 12 - 13%. Most likely less because of the combinations sometimes favor the maker. I estimated it to be 7 - 9% getting euchred being familiar with this type of analysis in the past.

So that was not enough, I wanted some more proof of the JH vs doubleton lead. So I did 300 hands net, set the eldest to JH AH TH JC TC WITH QS GOING DOWN. Then dealt the 18 unknown cards with random shuffles. I pulled out all hands where a player would have made Spades trump. You can do this yourself, to prove to yourself the approach.

I ended up with 9% Euchres, 27 in total of 300 hands when leading the JC and 28 leading the JH. This is essentially, NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE as to leading. I prefer leading the JC, and keeping my JH/AH combo with END position if opponent leads a spade or diamond to the 2nd trick, then me trumping with TH, leading 10C. So why are they so similar? Two reasons, got euchred with three trumps that included the JD with the AC or KC/QC combinations. Second look amazed me that the Club combinations were key with the guarded JD. This is why those who think the JH lead has an advantage are wrong. Not one time did the JD unguarded in my hands result in euchre with either way of leading to the first trick. Not saying if another 300 that this would not happen.

The maker is crossing suit, his partner is likely to have one trump or none, 70% of the time. Not much help! The opponents have the hearts and he has clubs or spades. So the club combinations happening with the JD guarded is exactly where the danger is.

I ended up with 9% Euchres, 27 in total of 300 hands when leading the JC and 28 leading the JH. This is essentially, NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE leading JH or JC. So why are they so similar?

Two reasons, MAKER got euchred with three trumps that included the JD with the AC or KC/QC combinations. JH lead favors the opponent now. A second look amazed me that the Club combinations were key to the euchres with the guarded JD. This is why those who think the JH lead has an advantage are wrong. Not one time did the JD unguarded in my hands result in euchre with either way of leading to the first trick.

But what can one recommend if you have the Queen or King combo? Certainly this now will favor leading the low off suit to promote the higher card for later on. Your euchre rate will now be HALVED is my estimate. Just because you have the Right does not always justify leading it.

AS A WISE FRIEND OF MINE SAYS, IT ALL DEPENDS!

~Irishwolf

irishwolf
Posts: 319
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:38 pm

Richard says,
" I still see a big advantage to going alone."

Statistically the opponents will not have the AC,KC OR QC only 11 - 12%. So with clubs alone you are stopped 88% of the time. 1 in 10 you might make it, provided the JD is not guarded, or opponents do not have 3, KH QH 9H. Then the JD guarded when the AC/KC/QC are absent - now you are down to about half that.

Not to mention you lead the JH, what is your 2nd lead? The AH if the JD does not fall? You are now about to get euchred. I you lead the JC now, the opponents on 2nd trick still have their Clubs in hand.

Not so sure Richard?

~Irishwolf

patiencepays
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:55 pm

Post by patiencepays » Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:35 pm

Irish, appreciate your responses @ 9:07pm and 9:38pm

...however, the strategy of which suit is best to lead first in this senario when hearts is made trump is not clear when only the "euchre" rate is calculated/shown for the hands value. If I am reading accurately, you are suggesting because there is "no significant difference" in euchres in the playing out of this hand your preference would be to lead the Jc. What about the number of marches that were gained from each lead in your 300 hand test? I'd be shocked if your test didn't show a considerably different result between the two leads, with the Jh lead garnering more, particularly 2 pt marches. So while the threat of euchre might be ~ equal with either lead, it's the expected number of marches from each lead that is the prime cause of my decision to lead Jh.

I'm with you; expect very few loner attempts to score, certainly not 15%

"""""Patience pays

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:18 am

patiencepays wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:35 pm
Irish, appreciate your responses @ 9:07pm and 9:38pm

...however, the strategy of which suit is best to lead first in this senario when hearts is made trump is not clear when only the "euchre" rate is calculated/shown for the hands value. If I am reading accurately, you are suggesting because there is "no significant difference" in euchres in the playing out of this hand your preference would be to lead the Jc. What about the number of marches that were gained from each lead in your 300 hand test? I'd be shocked if your test didn't show a considerably different result between the two leads, with the Jh lead garnering more, particularly 2 pt marches. So while the threat of euchre might be ~ equal with either lead, it's the expected number of marches from each lead that is the prime cause of my decision to lead Jh.

I'm with you; expect very few loner attempts to score, certainly not 15%

"""""Patience pays
Given a big enough sample size I suspect leading the Jc will result in less euchres and leading the JH will result in more 2 point marches. Of course these percentages are the key to solving the puzzle of which line is best. My naturally biased experience suggests that leading the JC is the best line on this hearts call. I.E. I suspect the lower euchre rate of the JC lead will offset the higher march rate of leading the JH. So that's why I'm going with the line that Tbolt and now Irishwolf advocate. I've played both lines for thousands of games, but I'm still not 100% confident which line is best, but I'm betting on the Jc lead tho.
Last edited by Wes (aka the legend) on Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:26 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:32 pm
I want to start by disagreeing with leading a small trump based on Tbolt’s guidance. I went back to the thread started July 12 and I don’t think that Tbolt’s guidance matches Wes’ summary, “ I've since changed up after testing out Edward's general claim that when you jump the fence with Right + 2 + no off aces you're better off leading a garbage suit (not the turned down suit) basically setting yourself up for an end play later in the hand on the first lead.” I would welcome reviewing the pros and cons of leading the Right vs. leading small but that is just my opening topic.

As Tbolt already pointed out, you misread. We're talking about advocating a JC on a Heart call. Leading a low heart trump from from this configuration would be a very bad idea. With AHJHTH we would be very happy to see the JD fall on the first lead no matter who had it. What about if we call clubs? Should we then lead a low trump? Lead the TC instead of the JC? Again, I think that would be a very bad idea. With a tripleton off Ace there's a decent chance we may not get a chance to get back in control of the hand if we lead a low trump, therefore that line is out the window. We must lead the Right if we call clubs out of this configuration. If we had this club call:

(Card_J-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_A-H) (Card_K-H) (Card_9-D)

Leading low is more viable becuz if the enemy captures our low trump lead, we still have a great chance to get back in control with a heart lead and then we can lead the Right followed by the boss KH for victory.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:30 am

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:48 am
Actual hand, Eldest called Hearts. Played out as follows:
The dangers of crossing the suit.

CROSS THE SUIT: EUCHRED WITH H’s: Th fact that 2nd seat went 2nd Hand Low allowed this euchre. It's bad luck that 2nd seat had a higher trump than 3rd seat helped the defense.
I think the real bad luck is the 2 seat even taking that line to begin with. Seriously like 99% of all players are trumping in right away with the KH.

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:48 am
The down side of leading from a doubleton and even promoting a Queen or King is this double lead back. Especially with two small off suit (doubleton). Then it depends on help from the maker's partner. Most of the time, leading like this you will make your point, but there are exceptions such as this hand. No question, IMO, if eldest had the AC, lead the JH then the AC (should then go alone). Here if eldest leads the JH to the first trick followed by a low club a point is made.

Trick: 1 2 3 4 5 Hearts is trump!
1st JC TC Th Jh AH
2nd 9D Kh KD 9S KS
3rd QC KC 9H TD QD
4th Ac 9C AS QH Jd Dealer must slough the AS on trick 3.

Interesting, the Power of Next if called. If eldest calls Next (Clubs) and leads the JC followed by the AH, then another heart, he also will make his point. Left was buried.

~Irishwolf
Good post Irishwolf. I would call hearts also, but down 9-6 I'm going alone in Clubs. Would you agree?

irishwolf
Posts: 319
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by irishwolf » Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:40 am

WES,
Yes, swinging for the fence would be in order, but success will be about 1 in 10 attempts. Similar to going alone with just the Nine, SLIGHTLY better odds, eldest leads so sometimes the opponents get squeezed.

As to the marches for leading the JH,40 marches in 300 hands that followed a pattern of the unguarded JD, falling to the JH lead. Leading the JC followed a different pattern. Pard had to have the JD guarded and the AC or KC if buried or another ace. So the marches were less, 34 marches the rate for leading the JC. So is 2% difference but that falls within the range of not being statistically significant (SO NOT CONCLUSIVE). So I did this as worst case but knowing I prefer this approach with King or Queen doubleton. Most hands in euchre are not borderline, usually a 'best' approach. Not so clear here!

You have to consider I was the player. Take four random players, it becomes more variable. I played it worst case for the maker on defense. Thus, I would not hang my hat on the JH lead for more sweeps (but seems likely to have more euchres as well) without doing more hands. Euchre is highly variable from set to set (I did these in sets of 25 hands each to look at the variability.) Sometimes favoring leading the JC and sometimes the JH. That's euchre! Then I look at the results by set compared to the overall average for 300 hands. The average for example is that 65% of the population falls within +/- 4% from the mean. When you look at low rates (at rates of 10% or less of something occurring like loners or euchres) this can be expected. That's the issue I had/have with Eric's data, he does not report a variance (standard deviation). I know how variable cards are when shuffled and dealt as well how played by the average player. I actually did not want to get into those details in this type of forum (boring for most).

~Irishwolf

patiencepays
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:55 pm

Post by patiencepays » Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:05 pm

Actual hand, Eldest called Hearts. Played out as follows:
The dangers of crossing the suit.
irishwolf wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:48 am
CROSS THE SUIT: EUCHRED WITH H’s: The fact that 2nd seat went 2nd Hand Low allowed this euchre. It's bad luck that 2nd seat had a higher trump than 3rd seat helped the defense.
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:30 am
I think the real bad luck is the 2 seat even taking that line to begin with. Seriously like 99% of all players are trumping in right away with the KH.
On Saturday Dec 28 I replied to Irish regarding the following he wrote:

"The fact that 2nd seat went 2nd Hand Low allowed this euchre."

I apologize for a mistake I made in my post which may have confused readers or led them to believe I came to a conclusion that was not intended by me.

In my reply it was suppose to read - "I'd say jump in with the Kh" NOT Kd as was written.

The full paragraph as intended is below and the error on the original post has been corrected.
"Second hand low" off the Jc lead here would not be my bag considering, 1. being the maker 1st seat failed to lead trump, indicating weakness. 2. It's not as if he holds the right bower or protected left which could aid in a euchre or in the least hold the opposition to a single point later. 3. highly likely both 3rd and 4th seat have a club, since 2nd seat is void in clubs and his partner had turned down a spade.
I'd say jump in with the Kh with the prime intent of breaking up the 2 point potential now.

Without further evidence of which should be the correct lead, the outcome of this particular hand could well be blamed on the failure to lead the JH, rather than attribute the euchre on "second hand low".

Once again, sorry.

Richardb02
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Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:10 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 9:38 pm
Richard says,
" I still see a big advantage to going alone."

Statistically the opponents will not have the AC,KC OR QC only 11 - 12%. So with clubs alone you are stopped 88% of the time. 1 in 10 you might make it, provided the JD is not guarded, or opponents do not have 3, KH QH 9H. Then the JD guarded when the AC/KC/QC are absent - now you are down to about half that.

Not to mention you lead the JH, what is your 2nd lead? The AH if the JD does not fall? You are now about to get euchred. I you lead the JC now, the opponents on 2nd trick still have their Clubs in hand.

Not so sure Richard?

~Irishwolf
I don’t disagree with your numbers, as presented. I am not so sure that always looking at the “what is going to harm me” probabilities is the proper perspective.

Two reasons are at the forefront of my thinking. OE lessons include the paraphrased point, try a loner even if you don’t have confidence in taking 5 tricks, you may be surprised, it is a game of chance. My own experience confirmed that I make 4 points when I don’t expect it and I only make 1 point when I expect to make 4 points.

Now, that is only anecdotal, i get that. But are there observable reasons that OE and my experiences reflect reality? I suggest that there are.

Poor Opponent play improves results. That is hard to calculate but can be assigned some value, let’s use 3% to start the discussion. Secondly, card distribution combinations greatly exceed the 45K hand combinations! How many card combinations are there that work to the Lone Caller’s advantage? I have never seen that addressed in analysis.

I suggest that we can apply it to this scenario. I am hoping Opp have a singleton Left. If that is the case then my probability of success has increased. How often will that occur: (5x1)/18*14/17^4= 12.7%. My calcs are crude but no one has the computing power to calculate the nearly unlimited hand combinations, so let’s continue. So 12.7% of the time my Right lead draws the singleton Left. I follow with the Ah and then the Th. Opp has to discard 1-3 cards each. The Qc is a likely discard, maybe even the Kc. Now only the Ac can stop 4 points. Optimistic? Of course! But more importantly, instead of only looking at a protected Left as a liability, we are looking at an unprotected Left as an asset.

My key point is that exclusively analyzing what will fail is not a thorough analysis. We also need to analyze what can go right!

Continuing the analysis let’s assume that if the Left falls, I win just 50% of the time. So I win 50%x12.7% or 6.4% of the time. Opp errors will help me 3% of the time. That gives me a “floor” of getting 4 points 9.4% of the time. Let’s use Irish’s club stopper at 12% winner.

I see a 9.4% to 15.8% probability of earning 4 points!

patiencepays
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:55 pm

Post by patiencepays » Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:13 pm

irishwolf wrote:
Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:25 pm

You are at eldest seat, score is 5 to 5. The QS went down and you hold JC, 10C JH AH & 10h. Are you going to

a) Call Next, clubs?
b} Call hearts?
c) Pass?

If you make trump what will you lead?

~Irishwolf
After the ensuing discussion derived from this question I shall try to terminate my participation in it on this note:

While I prefer naming hearts trump and leading with the Jh, followed by Jc, there is no clear proof naming hearts and leading the Jc will serve a player any worse. While "next" might be the "go to" call for some, I prefer to "jump the fence" with this hand, 3 heart trump including the Right bower and 2 voids. Passing the chance to make trump in round 2? Never, not at any score.

Richardb02
Posts: 246
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Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:10 pm

Tbolt65 wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:49 pm
To clear things up. I'm not leading low trump on the hand in question. Personally I can play hearts or clubs but for this scenario I choose to play Hearts. Now here comes into question of what to play on opening lead. Lead the Right bower or lead the Jack of clubs. Again. I can go either way. I can lead club to "play it safe" and just cut or potentially sluff of a card on a trick so my partner or my opponents may take it depending on how the hand is shaping up. Or I can lead the Jack of hearts, still having AH, 10h still an effective second trick, but I Need to get three to make point. Then leading Next(the Jack of clubs) to my partner in hopes of him taking it or forcing a trump out. I'll potentially have a higher rate of making 2 if I lead the right bower if everything falls just right but at the same time I open myself up to potentially getting euchred if the trump and cards are distributed between the dealer and second seat. With my partner not being of much help.

So in this spot at 5-5, I chose to go with Leading the jack of clubs so I can play behind my opponents and sometimes my partner may take the first trick which could also lead to taking 2 points if the cards fall right.

Now in rare cases I do get euchred in spots like this but not often enough to say, hey this is a bad line to take. I have found it has helped me WAY more than it's hurt me.

Tbolt65
Edward
I have corrected my post to read “non-trump” lead. Even when I proof read I leave mistakes.

I agree in general that if you have “A Right + 2 + no off-aces, that leading a small non-trump has a better chance to avoid an euchre.

My error on my post derailed my point. Right + 2 + no off-suit aces is not always a power hand. RAx and 2 voids is a power hand! A power hand trumps the more general guidance. The BPS points out the easily missed subtlety of this hand. Because of the power of this hand I would choose to lead the Right whether partnered or going alone. If the Left doesn’t fall I would then lead Jc. I am still leading Jc when my focus is back on 1 point and not 2 or 4 points.


jspectre
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:04 am

Post by jspectre » Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:41 am

My line of thinking here is that I need to lead the Jh because I don't feel good about giving them a potential chance to trump my partners ace in next, and secondly, I want to avoid any scenario where a club can be led back against me and give his partner the opportunity to trump that trick. I'm not thrilled with a suited J10, but it's still good enough to lead trump and try to make the other club good. You may very well need to play off in order to make this hand work, but if your partner is most likely to have black, I think it's correct to take a trump off each one of your opponents.

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