Let’s evaluate the hand.
But first, the strength of the turned down card is important! It could be an important factor, but let’s ignore it for now and see what happens:
0.50 Seat 2
0.25 Round 2
0.50 Reverse Next - 1.25 points so far, just for S2, R2, RN
Now in general 3 trump is better than 2 trump lets start with:
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.25 1 Void
0.50 the value of 3 trump min (0.75 R+2 or RA+1
3.75 Well above 2.00 min, in fact 95% expectation of taking 3 tricks myself
Now lets look at Clubs as trump
0.50 Seat 2
0.25 Round 2
0.50 Reverse Next - 1.25 points so far, just for S2, R2, RN
1.00
0.25
0.50
- Next A max value 0.50, no deduct for Doubleton
0.25. 1 Void in Hearts
3.25 vs. 3.75 in Spades, a clear advantage when you evaluate the power of 3 trump vs. 2 trump (as well as reduce the value of a Next Ace). I estimate a 10 percentage point improvement in my probability of success from 85% to 95%!
I see a serious improvement in 3 Spades vs. 2 Clubs
There is no difference with this hand, based on the BPS. The BPS (especially Basic, like this analysis), does not micro-analyze, it evaluates average values.At least half the value of an A, K or even Q is to draw out a Bower or to win a trick when partner has a Void. It is too small a difference relative to all the other variables.
If you did micro-analyze then you would conclude the the 2nd hand, calling Spades is weaker than the 1st hand by let’s say 0.125 point, to 3.625 points. The conclusion then is the 3.625 hand should be played but not the 3.75 hand?! Over analyzing misses the important point that 3 trump is superior to 2 trump under almost all circumstances. I will add the OE lesson that validates the value of 3 trump.