Richardb02 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:10 pm
Wes, and others, what is your EV (Estimated Value) or EO (Expected Odds) on this hand?
My EO is 65% chance of taking 1 or 2 points. Of course that means that I get Euchred 35% of the time or roughly 1 in 3 hands. That is based on my BPS (Bidding Point System) calling this a typical edge hand and my experience of winning 2 out of 3 hands.
My EV is based on 60% 1 point, 5% 2 points and 35% -2 points. So:
60%x1 + 5%x4 - 35%x2 = .6+.2-.7= +.1
Who agrees or not, that you come out very slightly ahead by calling?
BTW, lets ignore the possibility of running into a Next Loner, at least at first.
As a model, let's analyze this hand:
In order to do a proper EV analysis in euchre you have to factor in the cost of passing which will necessarily involve some assumptions to get off the ground. Remember in euchre the EV of passing does not = zero. It's not analogous to poker where the EV of folding DOES = zero. This is why tight players in poker can make money whereas tight players in euchre get destroyed.
So the key assumption I go with, and it's just a "shoot from the hip" guess is that the cost of passing in euchre = approximately -1 points. That's assumption #1. Given this specific hand, that's probably a conservative assumption, since passing a hand with no aces that blocks only 1 out of the 3 remaining 2nd round suits may cost our team even more than 1 point on average.
Ok next after that we have to invoke that probability chart, and that's also our assumption #2, we assume the probability chart is legit:
http://members.tripod.com/~Borf_Books/euchprob.htm
Ok, let's say the score is 0-0. If the cost of passing = -1, than that means on average passing will put our team down 0-1 with our opponents having the deal, which according to the probability chart gives us 43% equity.
Now let's move on to calling. I will simply use your assumptions (numbers):
60% of the time we will be ahead 1-0 on our opponent's deal with 55% equity.
5% of the time we will be ahead 2-0 on our opponent's deal with 62% equity.
35% of the time we will be down 0-2 on our opponent's deal with 36% equity.
Ok here's the equation on the equity of calling:
(.6 x .55) + (.05 x .62) + (.35 x .36) =
48.7% equity
The equity of passing =
43%.
48.7% > 43%
Therefore calling is better than passing.