How to play a weak next

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Richardb02
Posts: 176
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

How to play a weak next

Post by Richardb02 » Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:05 pm

(Card_J-D) down Seat Round 2 Down 5-7 Aggressive & Equal Players
(Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_9-C) (Card_10-D) (Card_Q-D)
Would you call Next?
If you call Next, what would you lead and what is your plan to play your cards?



RedDuke
Posts: 275
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Post by RedDuke » Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:36 am

If the jack of diamonds is the turn card then yes, I would definitely call next here. You have right+1 in the next suit. If played right, this is good for two tricks. If your partner can get one then you've got a point.

If the opposition turned down a red jack, it's a sure bet that anything good that they've got is going to be in a black suit. You have no way to defend against a call in either black suit given what's in your hand. If both of your opponents have nothing then your partner probably has a hand full of aces and can easily give you a trick in a next call. What you don't want though is the opponents calling either clubs or spades and sweeping you.

The way I would probably play this hand is to lead the right, hoping to pull four trumps. I'd then lead the nine of clubs. There's two outcomes that I'm hoping for here. The first is that second seat takes it, giving me last play on the next trick. Since I'm totally void in black cards (and that's probably what he's going to lead) then I've got a decent shot of taking it with the nine of trumps. The other hopeful outcome is that my partner takes the trick with something.

Tbolt65
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Location: Las Vegas

Post by Tbolt65 » Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:06 pm

Your going to need your partner to take a trick. So you have to decide how to best do that. Leading Trump I think ensures that outcome. I would lead Trump with the right and come back with the turn down suit of diamonds. A very high chance dealer has no diamonds. Moderate shot your partner can take with a diamond. If not then you hope the other team is out of Trump and when spades finally get lead Trump it and hope your 2nd diamond doesn't get trumped. If they do have more Trump you need your partner to take an off suit or have Trump to take a trick. Or force the other team to over Trump thus promoting your 9 of hearts to be boss trump.


Tbolt65
Edward

Wes (aka the legend)
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Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:58 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:05 pm
(Card_J-D) down Seat Round 2 Down 5-7 Aggressive & Equal Players
(Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_9-C) (Card_10-D) (Card_Q-D)
Would you call Next?
If you call Next, what would you lead and what is your plan to play your cards?
Sometimes the correct option presents itself due to the fact that your other options are THAT toxic. This is one of those times.

Firstly, good call. Absolutely critical. When the dealer turns down a red card and you have NO SPADES and one baby club you should be scared to death to pass. Order this hand at ANY score. The only ostensibly debatable scores are when your team is up 9-8 or tied 8-8. At those scores you have to tighten up your Next calls a bit. Calling Next after all is a defensive strategy. Playing strong defense loses most of its value when getting euchred = game over. HOWEVER, your marginal holding of Right + 1 and nothing else is juuuuuuust strong enough offensively to justify calling at 9-8/8-8. You'll score a point often enough + prevent the 2 seat from a closeout black call often enough to make up for the game losing euchres.

But you have to play it right. What are the toxic options I refer to that we must avoid here. Well, number one, we never wanna lead the turn-downed suit here, that toxic lead will almost surely give your enemy the first trick and this could seriously cripple your team if your partner is sitting on the Ad--which he is statistically more likely to have since your opponents turned down a diamond. Ok so don't so that.

The next lead you don't wanna make is leading the Right bower. You are marginal with 2 trump and no off aces, and we cannot be sure what our partner holds. Although it's true that your enemy passing in the first round positively correlates with your partner having offsuit aces that is certainly not enough information to take on faith. With your marginal holding and no off aces to promote the last thing you want to happen is for your team to blow two trump on one lead.

Well that leaves only one option left. It's a pretty meh/neutral option, but the clear best option nonetheless. Lead the (Card_9-C).

By taking this line you maximize whatever ruffing power your partner might have, I.E. you're preserving his trump to hopefully trump in if he has a void somewhere, and by taking this line your partner now doesn't have to have much for you guys to eke out a point. Sometimes your partner can have no trump and just the (Card_A-C) and you guys can still make it. I.E. his Ac walks on the first lead and he leads back a spade that you trump in with your (Card_9-H) and bingo you guys score a point. Or your partner could have just one trump, the Ah, and no off aces and you guys eke out a point due to your 9h trumping your void and your partner playing the Ah later, and your Jh now secures a point. By not leading trump you open up all kinds of opportunities for your team to eke out a point with not very much and that's PRECISELY want you want to try to do when you have a marginal offensive hand like Right + 1 and nothing else.

Here's a quote from this website on a situation similar but not perfectly analogous to your example:
In a hand where you only hold two small cards in next but no power, try leading an off suit that you think your partner may be able to trump. You may need the trump to make your point.

Source:https://ohioeuchre.com/E_next.php
I believe the above extrapolates seamlessly to Right + 1 but no power scenarios. In fact it actually fits "Right + 1 but no power scenarios" better than the actual advice for two small trump!

For example, let's say your team is up 3-0. The dealer just turned down the (Card_Q-S)

You're in the 1 seat with (Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-H)

You correctly call next knowing that passing with this holding is unacceptable given that you block nothing and have a nearly dead hand on a red call. Ok what should you lead? Well according to this site you should lead the 9h. Interesting to note I have talked about this spot with the 2 best players in my euchre tournament (one of them was Tbolt65). They both say to lead trump (in this case the Tc). I frankly am not sure what's best here. It isn't as clear to me like the Right + 1 scenario.

With the Right + 1 but no power scenario you have juuust enough offensive strength where you don't really need that much help from your partner, so it's best to not lead trump to maximize whatever help he may have. With the 2 low trump scenario, now it's clear you need your partner's help as it's clear you actually have to hit your partner somewhat to score a point. If's that's the case, that's a decent argument for going against the recommendations of this site and leading a low trump from KcTc example hand.

But that said, I'm still not convinced. I'ved tried playing the two low trump example both ways, and frankly I'm not sure what comes out ahead. Sometimes not leading trump saves my team, sometimes it hurts my team, and vice versa. If I had that mythical euchre simulator this would be one of the first spots I would try out.

For now tho if I do have a hand like (Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-H)

I play it like the site recommends, I lead the (Card_9-H)

However if we change our hand to this:

(Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_9-D) (Card_9-H)

I would absolutely head low trump EVERY TIME.

With no voids, and thus no chance to trump in on a fresh suit we REALLY need to hit our partner, and when that's the case it's imperative to lead trump right away. So at the very least I strictly disagree with this site's recommendation on how to play two low trump + no off suit power next calls, becuz it actually matters whether you have a void or not.

But what about when we have Right + 1 and no voids? Still do not lead trump. With this holding it is still absolutely critical that you avoid two of your team's trump falling on the same lead.

An example of an expert play based on an expert read:

Score is 0-0. Seat 4 turns down the (Card_Q-S)

Seat 1 who is a very strong player calls next.

You're in Seat 2 with (Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_A-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-S)

Seat one leads the (Card_9-D) , you play your (Card_A-D) and it walks. You now lead trump!

Why? When a very strong player calls next and leads an offsuit garbage card his most likely hand is Right + 1 with no power. He's prudently trying to make sure that his team does not spend two trump on the same lead. Ok well I never read "The Art of War" but I'm pretty sure somewhere in that book is the idea of figuring out what your enemy doesn't want to happen, and then making that happen! Your enemy, doesn't want two trump being burned on the same lead. Well F them! Lead trump and cause chaos! You now have a good chance of blowing up their double ruff attempt which could easily lead to a euchre.

Richardb02
Posts: 176
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm

Post by Richardb02 » Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:26 pm

Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:58 pm
Richardb02 wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:05 pm
(Card_J-D) down Seat Round 2 Down 5-7 Aggressive & Equal Players
(Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_9-C) (Card_10-D) (Card_Q-D)
Would you call Next?
If you call Next, what would you lead and what is your plan to play your cards?
Sometimes the correct option presents itself due to the fact that your other options are THAT toxic. This is one of those times.

Firstly, good call. Absolutely critical. When the dealer turns down a red card and you have NO SPADES and one baby club you should be scared to death to pass. Order this hand at ANY score. The only ostensibly debatable scores are when your team is up 9-8 or tied 8-8. At those scores you have to tighten up your Next calls a bit. Calling Next after all is a defensive strategy. Playing strong defense loses most of its value when getting euchred = game over. HOWEVER, your marginal holding of Right + 1 and nothing else is juuuuuuust strong enough offensively to justify calling at 9-8/8-8. You'll score a point often enough + prevent the 2 seat from a closeout black call often enough to make up for the game losing euchres.

But you have to play it right. What are the toxic options I refer to that we must avoid here. Well, number one, we never wanna lead the turn-downed suit here, that toxic lead will almost surely give your enemy the first trick and this could seriously cripple your team if your partner is sitting on the Ad--which he is statistically more likely to have since your opponents turned down a diamond. Ok so don't so that.

The next lead you don't wanna make is leading the Right bower. You are marginal with 2 trump and no off aces, and we cannot be sure what our partner holds. Although it's true that your enemy passing in the first round positively correlates with your partner having offsuit aces that is certainly not enough information to take on faith. With your marginal holding and no off aces to promote the last thing you want to happen is for your team to blow two trump on one lead.

Well that leaves only one option left. It's a pretty meh/neutral option, but the clear best option nonetheless. Lead the (Card_9-C).

By taking this line you maximize whatever ruffing power your partner might have, I.E. you're preserving his trump to hopefully trump in if he has a void somewhere, and by taking this line your partner now doesn't have to have much for you guys to eke out a point. Sometimes your partner can have no trump and just the (Card_A-C) and you guys can still make it. I.E. his Ac walks on the first lead and he leads back a spade that you trump in with your (Card_9-H) and bingo you guys score a point. Or your partner could have just one trump, the Ah, and no off aces and you guys eke out a point due to your 9h trumping your void and your partner playing the Ah later, and your Jh now secures a point. By not leading trump you open up all kinds of opportunities for your team to eke out a point with not very much and that's PRECISELY want you want to try to do when you have a marginal offensive hand like Right + 1 and nothing else.

Here's a quote from this website on a situation similar but not perfectly analogous to your example:
In a hand where you only hold two small cards in next but no power, try leading an off suit that you think your partner may be able to trump. You may need the trump to make your point.

Source:https://ohioeuchre.com/E_next.php
I believe the above extrapolates seamlessly to Right + 1 but no power scenarios. In fact it actually fits "Right + 1 but no power scenarios" better than the actual advice for two small trump!
Wes thank you for your deep analysis. I'm not in your league so please bear with me as I parse your analysis. You offer two, almost 100% points of guidance: 1, do not lead the turned down suit and 2, do not lead the Right. I'm 100% on board.

You go beyond this website's, OE's, Power or No-Power approach. You introduce "just enough power [to take 2 tricks]. A 3rd approach. Right + 1 has enough "Power" to take 2 tricks. Therefore, you only need Partner (P) to take 1 trick. Therefore, you don't need to hit P's hand at "Next" probabilities. So lead to win 1 trick, from P's hand, with an A or Void. That is your "Least toxic" lead of the (Card_9-C). That makes sense to me.

Would you agree with me so far?
Wes (aka the legend) wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:58 pm


For example, let's say your team is up 3-0. The dealer just turned down the (Card_Q-S)

You're in the 1 seat with (Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-H)

You correctly call next knowing that passing with this holding is unacceptable given that you block nothing and have a nearly dead hand on a red call. Ok what should you lead? Well according to this site you should lead the 9h. Interesting to note I have talked about this spot with the 2 best players in my euchre tournament (one of them was Tbolt65). They both say to lead trump (in this case the Tc). I frankly am not sure what's best here. It isn't as clear to me like the Right + 1 scenario.

With the Right + 1 but no power scenario you have juuust enough offensive strength where you don't really need that much help from your partner, so it's best to not lead trump to maximize whatever help he may have. With the 2 low trump scenario, now it's clear you need your partner's help as it's clear you actually have to hit your partner somewhat to score a point. If's that's the case, that's a decent argument for going against the recommendations of this site and leading a low trump from KcTc example hand.


But that said, I'm still not convinced. I'ved tried playing the two low trump example both ways, and frankly I'm not sure what comes out ahead. Sometimes not leading trump saves my team, sometimes it hurts my team, and vice versa. If I had that mythical euchre simulator this would be one of the first spots I would try out.

For now tho if I do have a hand like (Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_10-S) (Card_9-H)

I play it like the site recommends, I lead the (Card_9-H)

However if we change our hand to this:

(Card_K-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_K-S) (Card_9-D) (Card_9-H)

I would absolutely head low trump EVERY TIME.

With no voids, and thus no chance to trump in on a fresh suit we REALLY need to hit our partner, and when that's the case it's imperative to lead trump right away. So at the very least I strictly disagree with this site's recommendation on how to play two low trump + no off suit power next calls, becuz it actually matters whether you have a void or not.

But what about when we have Right + 1 and no voids? Still do not lead trump. With this holding it is still absolutely critical that you avoid two of your team's trump falling on the same lead.

An example of an expert play based on an expert read:

Score is 0-0. Seat 4 turns down the (Card_Q-S)

Seat 1 who is a very strong player calls next.

You're in Seat 2 with (Card_K-C) (Card_Q-C) (Card_A-D) (Card_10-D) (Card_9-S)

Seat one leads the (Card_9-D) , you play your (Card_A-D) and it walks. You now lead trump!

Why? When a very strong player calls next and leads an offsuit garbage card his most likely hand is Right + 1 with no power. He's prudently trying to make sure that his team does not spend two trump on the same lead. Ok well I never read "The Art of War" but I'm pretty sure somewhere in that book is the idea of figuring out what your enemy doesn't want to happen, and then making that happen! Your enemy, doesn't want two trump being burned on the same lead. Well F them! Lead trump and cause chaos! You now have a good chance of blowing up their double ruff attempt which could easily lead to a euchre.
Let's cover your last 2 scenarios separately and focus on Right + 1 for now. OK? They deserve a separate conversation.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 301
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:54 pm

Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:26 pm
Wes thank you for your deep analysis. I'm not in your league so please bear with me as I parse your analysis. You offer two, almost 100% points of guidance: 1, do not lead the turned down suit
Yes, I would say never lead the turned down suit in any scenario, although I recall Irishwolf coming up with a possible exception to that rule. If I recall correctly it was a spot where we were on defense in the 2nd round with both bowers and he recommended leading the turn-downed suit to make his enemy likely burn a trump right away which would be advantageous for this specific holding. I'm hoping I'm remembering this right, and I actually need Irishwolf to verify this. I found this exception fascinating becuz I never thought of it before and I'm certainly open to it being correct. I tried to search for the thread Irishwolf proposed this idea in but couldn't find it. There's too many threads on this site now which is a good thing of course! That said, I still feel comfortable in stating that one should never lead the turned down suit because at worse that advice will be wrong around 1-2% of the time.
Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:26 pm
and 2, do not lead the Right. I'm 100% on board.
Yes, I'm saying do not lead the Right with this specific holding in this specific scenario.
Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:26 pm
You go beyond this website's, OE's, Power or No-Power approach. You introduce "just enough power [to take 2 tricks]. A 3rd approach. Right + 1 has enough "Power" to take 2 tricks. Therefore, you only need Partner (P) to take 1 trick. Therefore, you don't need to hit P's hand at "Next" probabilities. So lead to win 1 trick, from P's hand, with an A or Void. That is your "Least toxic" lead of the (Card_9-C). That makes sense to me.
Yeah it's kinda strange to say but nevertheless true, our hand is both too strong and too weak to lead trump. Too strong becuz we don't need that much help from our P to eke out a point therefore we don't need to lead trump to hit our P's hand. And too weak becuz with just 2 trump and no aces to promote it's imperative we avoid the scenario where our team burns two trump on one lead.
Richardb02 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:26 pm
Would you agree with me so far?[/color]

Yes. I think we're on the same page.

jblowery
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am

Post by jblowery » Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:56 am

Yup. No guarantee of what your partner has. Lead (Card_9-C)

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