jblowery wrote: ↑Fri May 24, 2019 12:39 pm

In general, how does this change your likelihood of calling? I think it would make you more conservative, especially when the other team has the deal (because you would have it next round) but I don't know how much more conservative you would be.

I thought of this question because the other day we were up 9-8, the dealer turned down hearts, and I called next from Seat 1 with the left and two other diamonds. We got euchered and I was wondering if I should have done this. Thanks.

I covered this is my "Seat 1 Round 2 Up 9-8" post

Yes, you have to be conservative because Enemy has 8. Minus 1 click. In numbers -0.25

But, if you are playing to win (as you should, Euchre is a game of odds, you must take a chance, more specifically you must be prepared to lose up to 35% of the time so get used to it) you should be aggressive to win the game. Plus 1 click. In numbers, +0.25

At 9-8 the 2 conflicting guidelines negate each other.

You got euchred. That is the chance that you take. If you had the theoretical, Euchre simulator, you would test 400 hands and as long as you won 65% of the time you should call. (We don't have that tool. That is what makes Euchre so much fun)

Wes and Reduke rightly asked for more specific details about the car turned down as well as your other 2 trumps and your other 2 cards.

Let's use Wes' "weak hand" scenario:

Lets (for now) ignore Wes' advanced analysis of blocking and just use BPS-Basic:

0.25 S1

1.25 S1 R2 Next

0.75 L

0.25 Td

0.25 9d

0.25 1 Void

0.50 3 trump (weakest evaluation but 0.75 is the BPS recommendation for 3 Trump & 1 or 2 Bowers)

3.50 points. Much greater than 2.25 for a minimum call (65% probability). My Ev is 90-95%!

____ I don't need any additional analysis. I will take 90-95% probability, any time, almost any situation.

____ Another way to look at it, 3.50 points means I have > 90% chance of taking 3 tricks. And that is before I count on Partner having 1 trick! That kicks our team up to a 95% chance.

____ Sure you still have a 5-10% probability of being Euchred but you play to win not to avoid being euchred. That is the psychological side of playing. You must be prepared to lose occasionally to maximize the percentage of time that you win. A 90% chance of winning 1 (or more tricks) vs. a 20 or even 30% chance of being euchred translates into an Ev (Estimated Value) of (.90*1= 0.90 ) vs (0.30 {worst case} chance of being euchred). You come out ahead 0.60 points! Logically you should call, cased on that analysis. The only thing holding you back is the fear of losing! Avoiding fear, separates the better players from the average players IMO.

Conclusions: Call the hand giving you a greater opportunity to win. Learn to handle the emotions that say, "I see a path to being euchred." Don't use any additional analysis when the advantage is clear. Call.

Becoming a Wes or RedDuke is like eating an elephant. You have to do it 1 bite at a time. Taking 2 bites at a time, or too big of a bite will make you choke! You will choke, fail to call, when it is to your advantage when you have an excellent chance of winning. Wes and RedDuke ignore my psychological reasoning. They are 5-10,000 hands per year ahead of my mediocre performance! They are fearless. Wes is even more fearless than RedDuke.

I immensely appreciate that they share their experience and knowledge with us. But even after following their guidance for almost a year, I only understand half of their analysis. They give me a chunk of elephant. I take my own guidance. I only take a single bite from their wisdom. Improvement is my goal. With that limited goal I get to enjoy Euchre, where I am right now.