Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:15 am
You're up 2-0 in the 1 seat and the dealer just turned down a
You have
Call diamonds. Again, it's not a call you're proud of but it's better than calling next, and it beats out passing with a potentially dead hand with no aces that blocks nothing.
This one I have more sympathy for the argument that not calling will likely gift a 2 or 4 pointer to the opposition. It's also two suited.
I would apply BPS:
0.25 Seat 1
0.25 Round 2
0.50 Kd
0.50 Qd
0.25 9d
0.75 2 Voids, 2 Suited
0.50 3 Trumps, no Bowers
3.00 I rate this diamond call as stronger than the previous diamond call!
If, the hand wasn't 2 Suited, it would earn a 2.5, which is the minimum to call from Seat 1.
Of course you won't win every time. You can easily see that there are 3 trump (RLA) that can take a trick and 2 cards (if 2 suited) and 4 cards (if 3 suited, 1 void) that can take a trick. So the worse case is your opponents have 7 cards that can take a trick. They need at least 3 of those cards to euchre you. So the 1st card that they draw has a 7/18 chance of being drawn. If they draw one of those cards they have a 6/17 chance of drawing a 2nd card that can hurt you.Then they have a 5/16 chance of hurting you times 8 more cards or 40/16. The math is: 7/18 x 6/17 x 40/16 = .343 or a 34% chance of euchring your minimal call. [These are crude calculations, not full blown analysis].
But if you win 66 hands out of 100 and earn 1 point you will earn 66 points.
If you are euchred 34 hands out of 100 and give up 2 points you lost 68 points.
You are slightly behind. But now add your additional benefits:
Calling will earn 2 points. I average 16%. Cut that in half, so plus 8 points.
You stopped possible Loners. Lets use only 2% of the time, so plus 8 points.
You stopped your opponents 1 and 2 point hands. I won't even count that.
I am ahead 16 points out of 100 hands.
I will call to earn 16 more points out of 100 hands with a call on the edge.
[Of course, my analysis is debatable. That is why this forum is interesting, entertaining and educational.]
The biggest issue is, are you willing to be euchred 34% of the time for a small but significant advantage? Wes, aka The Legend, has posted that he is euchred 27% of the time (on average). Most people are not. People are programmed to avoid pain and fail to look for the opportunities. Euchre favors the opportunist!
The 2nd biggest battle is staying the course for at least 100 hands (and preferable 400 hands)! After getting euchred twice most people give up.
The BPS helps me immensely in being confident in playing consistently with "Edge" hands. I have been able to stay the course with edge hands because I am calling systematically. The BPS is nothing more that a prioritized checklist with estimated values that reflect lessons from Ohio Euchre and this forum. Thank you Ohio Euchre and everyone that posts.