You hold A-A-A-A-J, What would you do?

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Dlan
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You hold A-A-A-A-J, What would you do?

Unread post by Dlan » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:55 pm

You are sitting in the north seat and bidding goes pass pass. Your turn, Do you order or pass?

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raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:59 pm

This is a very nice hand. But the problem is that you are sitting in 3rd seat, where it is very easy to get euchred. You need a GREAT hand to call from this seat. Fortunately, you have a great hand for a next call, or for supporting your partner's next call, on the second round. So this hand is clearly a pass. Also note that you have excellent euchre potential should dealer call, 1st round.

I ran this through my simulator, and the results confirm this analysis.
pass: EV = 1.40
call w/p: EV = 1.04
call alone: EV = 1.10

I ran this again, eliminating the cases where S1 or S2 called, R1 [those results just dilute the cases where S3 actually has to make a choice].

Pass: EV = +1.38 [if S1 calls S, R2, S3 has great support; if S1 happens to have a great D or H hand, S3 can still support; S3 can call S alone, R2, if it gets that far]
Call w/p: EV = +0.99 [gets euchred about 11% of time]
Call alone: EV = +1.05 [gets euchred about 5% more often, but also get 4 pts about 12% of time]
_____________________________________________

But seat position is everything. I ran this scenario again, but imagining you had this hand in S1.

call w/p: EV = +0.90
call alone: EV = +1.61 [actually less euchres than when calling w/p!]
pass (call alone in S, R2): EV = +1.75 [gets called, R1, about 40% of time, and do very well; great stats when calling alone in S, R2, the other 60% of time]

So still better to pass.

Some might call this a "bagging" hand. But actually, you are just realizing that you have great defense if the opponents call, R1 (and great support should your partner call, R1), and have a solid - maybe even better- call, R2. That's not actually bagging, but simply sensible (point-optimizing) play.

Richardb02
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Unread post by Richardb02 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 6:35 pm

I am going alone, with this hand, as presented.

There is no score and no discussion about the Opponents skill levels or Partner's skill level.

I don't dispute Ray's results. I assume, based on previous posts, that he has programmed the Opponents' plays as best possible plays but limited to Ray's skills and programming. "Guess"-timating Opponents making the best possible plays; it makes sense that passing creates a greater EV than going Alone. However, Opponents' skills is not programmed in his simulator.

Score, is also a factor. Score was not discussed. Scores at 8-8 or 8-9 would impact the decision.

Partner's play is also a factor. A poor Partner, would also lead me to go Alone. Without the incompetence of an incompetent Partner, I would choose to go Alone vs with an incompetent Partner. An incompetent Partner, would change the results of a simulation.

That makes this posted hand, an example of the limitations of a simulator. Any comments?

I also agree with Ray's statement. "Some might call this a "bagging" hand. But actually, you are just realizing that you have great defense if the opponents call, R1 (and great support should your partner call, R1), and have a solid - maybe even better- call, R2. That's not actually bagging, but simply sensible (point-optimizing) play." This is an excellent explanation that passing makes sense with this hand and should result in a better EV than going Alone.


raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:35 am

Richard, you correctly delineate the limitations of any simulator, and highlight the frustration we all face when we make the right play and our efforts are scuppered when our partner does something ... let's just say "sub-optimal."

By calling alone, you certainly take control, and the result is better than if bidding with your partner. So not a bad choice, especially given that the inexperienced dealer may pass hands they should be (statistically) calling, and partner may pass hands they should (statistically) be calling, R2, thus reducing the number of points my simulator predicts you will earn [which is what you said, in different words]. Though, if playing with know entities, I maintain that passing is the better move.

A note on the importance of the current score in decision making. The score is generally an important factor, and indeed is not stipulated here. But it doesn't always change the best course of action. If the score is 8-8 or 8-9 [i.e., the game is close to being decided], you are just trying to avoid the opponents scoring a point. Calling to prevent S4 from calling serves no purpose: if they have a good enough hand to win 3+ tricks, you just give them 2 points rather than 1; if they have a poor hand and were going to pass, you still have 2 great chances to bid, R2 (S1 and S3), and great defense if S2 calls, R2. And you get the next deal!

On balance, I think that even with a close score, the decision doesn't change. IF S4 passes AND S1 passes, R2, AND S2 has a winnable bid, R2, AND they have 9 points (not 8), it may have been better to bid from S3, R1. But in the majority of cases, pass [assuming experienced players in the other seats]. But the general point remains valid: score must be considered.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:53 pm

While it’s easy to know what/how to play once all the cards are exposed, in real life we don’t have that information available to us. All we know are the cards in front of us. In most events, you’re playing with a new team after each set. That means the skill level of your opponents may be unknown. There will be times when an inexperienced player can make a great call and those when even the most experienced people can make some really bad calls.
Sure the score is known. Yes, it's one factor and plays its part. Yet, at the end of the day, it comes down to the card one holds and do they think the benefits outweigh the risks.

Here is the actual hand and how it played out.


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https://worldofcardgames.com/#!replayer ... %3A1%7D%5D

raydog
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Unread post by raydog » Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:42 pm

Interesting. With this particular distribution, if S3 calls alone, S2 will lead next (S) which S4 will trump (having discarded the KD for the 9C). S4 will lead back a H, which S2 will trump. And S2 will lead a D on the 3rd trick - euchre.

Bidding with partner, S1 should be leading trump (C), which will result in a sweep. A very unexpected result, but also a very uncommon distribution of cards.

Note that if S3 passes, S4 will also pass, and S1 should call next, R2, resulting in 1 pt. for the good guys. If S1 passes and S2 calls D, S1 will lead a S and S1/S3 should get a trick however it is played out - just unfortunate that they can't euchre.

There almost always exists an unlikely scenario where the best play (statistically) doesn't work out. But that doesn't make it the wrong strategy to employ.

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Dlan
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Unread post by Dlan » Tue Sep 20, 2022 5:06 pm

raydog wrote:
Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:42 pm
There almost always exists an unlikely scenario where the best play (statistically) doesn't work out. But that doesn't make it the wrong strategy to employ.
I agree

jspectre
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Unread post by jspectre » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:01 am

I don't even feel sorry for the maker that his partner turned an easy march into a euchre, down 9-4 there's no choice but to go alone from this position. Still, it's a good example to show that S1's failure to lead trump created a -4 swing in favor of the opponents, and this is particularly unforgivable considering that they possess two middle trump, not some lone ace that a novice might be hesitant to lead.

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LeftyK
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Unread post by LeftyK » Mon Oct 17, 2022 7:04 pm

I agree with Richard and before I even scrolled down with score 4-9 it's a loner call all day everyday for me. Sims can rot. (sry raydog). And my world wth is going on with 1st chair not leading trumps resulting in a set: a 6pt turnaround hand there.
Rule #1 don't pass bidable hands.

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