Findings For S3 pass w/Q-10-9H As-9s

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Tbolt65
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Findings For S3 pass w/Q-10-9H As-9s

Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:36 am

Passing 3rd seat with Q-10-9h As-9s. With how I would play optimal as "I" see it in all positions. Results so far at 60 hands played and everything included.


Opposition got set as Dealer and S2(R1/R2) 4 euchres = 8pts

Seat 1 loners made: 4 = 16pts

Seat 1 1pt hands: 17=17pts

Seat 1 Marches 2=4pts

Seat 1 euchre's 14= -28pts

Totals +45pts made
-28pts given/lost



I was keeping track on all the hands if seat 3 were to order on hands passed.
On the hands passed and when Dealer ordered or if it got back to seat 2 R2 to order. There were 19 hands played dealer/S2 would be a +10pts for the opposition in total for those hands.

while at 19 hands the S3 would have ordered on those same hands -26pts for Seat 3s team in total for those hands.

Also of note there were four R1 S2 orders, 2 R2 S2 orders and 2 S1 R1 Loner tries.


Tbolt65
Edward



irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:09 am

Can you break that down as to calling Next vs Crossing Suit by S1?
Just to be clear, so you conclude what with this hand?

Not sure what I am missing, you have 4 euchres of the Dealer/S2 but how many times did they make 1 Pt, 2 Pts? That would affect your total points of +45 and - 28 pts. If S3 passes, without what occurred on 1R S4/S2 you are at 37 - 28 = 9 pts not including 4 euchres.

Surely there are points the Dealer side made to this results of S3 passing. If 4 times they got euchred so did they do on the other 19 - if all 1 pointers 19 points? If so 45 - 28 - 19 for Negative points in total when S3 passes all the time.

Opposition got set as Dealer and S2(R1/R2) 4 euchres = 8pts

Seat 1 loners made: 4 = 16pts

Seat 1 1pt hands: 17=17pts

Seat 1 Marches 2=4pts

Seat 1 euchre's 14= -28pts

Totals +45pts made
-28pts given/lost

Tbolt65
Posts: 371
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:13 pm

irishwolf wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:09 am
Can you break that down as to calling Next vs Crossing Suit by S1?
Just to be clear, so you conclude what with this hand?

Not sure what I am missing, you have 4 euchres of the Dealer/S2 but how many times did they make 1 Pt, 2 Pts? That would affect your total points of +45 and - 28 pts. If S3 passes, without what occurred on 1R S4/S2 you are at 37 - 28 = 9 pts not including 4 euchres.

Surely there are points the Dealer side made to this results of S3 passing. If 4 times they got euchred so did they do on the other 19 - if all 1 pointers 19 points? If so 45 - 28 - 19 for Negative points in total when S3 passes all the time.

Opposition got set as Dealer and S2(R1/R2) 4 euchres = 8pts

Seat 1 loners made: 4 = 16pts

Seat 1 1pt hands: 17=17pts

Seat 1 Marches 2=4pts

Seat 1 euchre's 14= -28pts

Totals +45pts made
-28pts given/lost

Unfortunately I did not denote seat 1 next or calling black. I did keep track of dealer pick up and what would have happened to a seat three call if there was no pass. 17 times dealer picked up twice it got back to s2 R2. I gave the over all tally of those results above with the dealers/s2r2 scoring a +10 and s3 getting a -26. I can show point correlations for each order by dealer and seat 3 break down if you like? Im at work so if yo do want that I can show it later. There is one to speak of that was interesting. There was a dealer order that got -2, but if seat 3 ordered instead they also got a -2. That only happened once in my first 60 hand sample here.


Tbolt65
Edward

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:48 pm

We are comparing S3 ordering vs Passing and need points for both for best strategy.

60 hands, R1,S2 assisted 4 times. [Did S1 ever Order?] If not, that leaves 56 times S3 ordered. What is that breakdown for Euchres, Sweeps & 1 Pointers? Take those points and compare against S3 passing 56 times.

Now if S3 passes 56 times, – You gave points for S1 but what is the breakdown for S2/S4 for R1 & R2 if dealer passes?

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:33 pm

Tbolt65 wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:36 am
Passing 3rd seat with Q-10-9h As-9s. With how I would play optimal as "I" see it in all positions. Results so far at 60 hands played and everything included.


Opposition got set as Dealer and S2(R1/R2) 4 euchres = 8pts

Seat 1 loners made: 4 = 16pts

Seat 1 1pt hands: 17=17pts

Seat 1 Marches 2=4pts

Seat 1 euchre's 14= -28pts

Totals +45pts made
-28pts given/lost



I was keeping track on all the hands if seat 3 were to order on hands passed.
On the hands passed and when Dealer ordered or if it got back to seat 2 R2 to order. There were 19 hands played dealer/S2 would be a +10pts for the opposition in total for those hands.

while at 19 hands the S3 would have ordered on those same hands -26pts for Seat 3s team in total for those hands.

Also of note there were four R1 S2 orders, 2 R2 S2 orders and 2 S1 R1 Loner tries.


Tbolt65
Edward
Irish in your last two posts everything you asked for is stated above. With the exception of what you asked for in your first post about the outcomes of s3 pass and dealer and s2r2 orders of those individual results. However I did post the culmative results of those out comes.

When I get home like I said in my 2nd post I can give you the side by side result of dealer orders and seat 3 results. If you want it.

Tbolt65
Edward


Edit: Ahh ok wolf, you want a sample of 3rd seat vs 1st seat. I mainly approached this from 3rd seat pass and what seat 1 did and the results of dealer ordering and s2 orders. To give a another perspective. I was tired trying to put it together last night. Let me see if I can tidy it up. However there is plenty of info already in front of you.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:58 pm

Better yet I will itemized all 60 hands side by side to show. It will be a long post😏😏

Tbolt65
Edward

Edit: Well there wont be any continued testing for tonight. Massive data dump incoming, 😎

After work of course.πŸ˜‰

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:39 pm

Not looking for a massive data dump.

Don't over complicate this, for the 56 hands (60 - 4 hands S2 assisted) on R1, what was the results you got for S3 ordering?

Then, your data 37 hands S2 results (I see that) and 4 euchres of S2/S4. Was that R1 or R2. 37 + 4 = 41 hands. Where/what on the other 56 - 41 = 15 hands for R1 and/or R2? Not clear from your data for when S3 passes 56 times.
Sorry I don't see it.

Tbolt65
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Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:14 pm
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:57 pm

irishwolf wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:39 pm
Not looking for a massive data dump.

Don't over complicate this, for the 56 hands (60 - 4 hands S2 assisted) on R1, what was the results you got for S3 ordering?

Ive omitted the s2r1 data set for seat 3 since technically it never gets to seat 3 r1.
So the point is moot hence no data for seat 3 when seat 2 orders 1st round.


Then, your data 37 hands S2 results (I see that) and 4 euchres of S2/S4. Was that R1 or R2. 37 + 4 = 41 hands. Where/what on the other 56 - 41 = 15 hands for R1 and/or R2? Not clear from your data for when S3 passes 56 times.
Sorry I don't see it.
round 1 and 2 where combined

justme
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Unread post by justme » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:23 pm

Tbolt65 wrote: ↑
Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:36 am
Passing 3rd seat with Q-10-9h As-9s. With how I would play optimal as "I" see it in all positions. Results so far at 60 hands played and everything included.


Opposition got set as Dealer and S2(R1/R2) 4 euchres = 8pts
Seat 1 loners made: 4 = 16pts
Seat 1 1pt hands: 17=17pts
Seat 1 Marches 2=4pts
Seat 1 euchre's 14= -28pts

Totals +45pts made
-28pts given/lost

Tbolt65
Edward
Tbolt65,

The opening to your post states you PLAYED 60 HANDS but your result of +45 and minus 28 only incorporates the results of 41 hands. (4, 4, 17, 2, 14 with all but 4 of these hand results instigated by seat 1 calls.

Am I to understand that by saying you played 60 hands, you are inferring that you DEALT 60 hands, but that 19 hands were discarded because an order up in the first round by seat 1 or 2 took away the opportunity for you to make or pass at seat 3 ?

I find it very surprising that seat 1 made trump 37 times after the dealer turned the upcard down. And got euchred 14/37 calls? 38% wow! Not good.
Last edited by justme on Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:36 pm

Well I had a post but my login timed out between rides here. So instead of re typing. It. Ill just say I'll will make sure when I get home.

Tbolt65
Edward

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:08 am

Here is the results if Seat 3 had ordered:

54 hands callable for Seat 3 when seat 3 was able to call.
There were 4 R1S2 calls and 2 R1S1 calls. Totaling 6 hands unplayable for Seat 3.

(31) +1pt = 31pts 58.49%

(19) -2pt = -38pts 35.84%

(4) +2pt = +8pts 7.54%


Totals:

64.8% +1pt/+2pt
35.18% -2pts


Total points: +39pts made
-38points given up


------------------------------------------------



Here is the results for Seat 3 passes. Including euchres(+2), marches and loners made and single points. There were 40 times where points were made/taken for Seat 3s Team when seat 3 passed. 1 S1R1 Order.

Keep in mind that the times the dealer ordered up or seat 2 r2 called and they made a point for themselves. If Seat 3 would have called an Loss of -2pts would have been in all cases with the exception of 3 cases where S3 woulda have made point. So of the 60 hands played 4 hands discounted right away those are S2R1 orders. (56)callable hands after Seat 3 passes. Then there were 2 S2R2 calls of which +1pt was made twice but if S3 was allowed to call before it got to S2R2 seat 3 would have been -2pts and +1pt respectively for those 2 hands. (54)callable hands Which leaves us with 14 dealer calls that where made +1pt only but if Seat 3 where to call instead of passing 12 of 14 would be for -2 and 2 of 14 would be +1 for S3.


There is value in passing from 3rd seat to get the extra points from loners, plus it is close enough and your not losing points but slightly gaining for passing it. The numbers average out very close but when those 4points come in it is big in that moment. You can pass, bag and gamble on bigger hands. Thats 4 points gained and possibly less hands to be played to reach your goal of 10/11pts to win the game. Plus on the times you do pass you save points v.s. if you would have called you would have been euchred. So even though dealer may make +1 point or S2R2, its better than giving them the +2 with your euchre's from 3rd seat or 1st seat for that matter.

Total

made points (17) +1pt =17pts 42.5%

euchre/marches (6) +2pt =12pts 15%

Loners made (3) +4pt =12pts 7.5%

euchre's(against) (14) -2pt = -28pts 35%


Totals: 65% +1pts/+2pts/+4pts
35% -2pts


Total Points: +41pts made
-28pts given up




Tbolt65
Edward
Last edited by Tbolt65 on Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

irishwolf
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Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:12 am

Thank you Ed for your efforts.

For me, doing enough hands, for both QH 10H 9H AS 9S, ANY card other than the JH up - I am not Passing at S3. I see a +EV for ordering. I see passing same as the "fable" of the WOLF & GRAPES.

Or as my Mother use to say, Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush!

Get your point and move on! Just me.

~IRISHWOLF

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:25 pm

irishwolf wrote: ↑
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:12 am
Thank you Ed for your efforts.

For me, doing enough hands, for both QH 10H 9H AS 9S, ANY card other than the JH up - I am not Passing at S3. I see a +EV for ordering. I see passing same as the "fable" of the WOLF & GRAPES.

Or as my Mother use to say, Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush!

Get your point and move on! Just me.

~IRISHWOLF

Thanks Irishwolf.


Here is something to think about. At various scores/situations and with dependable partners you can now order that right up knowing your partner has help for you. Something Wes and I have discussed.

Tbolt65
Edward

justme
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Unread post by justme » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:54 pm

Tbolt65 wrote: ↑
Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:08 am
Here is the results if Seat 3 had ordered: Q T 9 h, As + 9s

53 hands callable for Seat 3 when seat 3 was able to call.
There were 4 R1S2 calls and 2 R1S1 calls. With 1S1R1 call. Totaling 7 hands unplayable for Seat 3. .

(31) +1pt = 31pts 58.49%

(19) -2pt = -38pts 35.84%

(4) +2pt = +8pts 7.54%

In the above figures there is a discrepancy and a repetition. You indicated 53 callable hands, yet your breakdown shows 54 in total. As well, you are reporting 7 hands as unplayable, but you have 1 duplicate (2 R1S1 calls, 1 S1R1 call) I am assuming 54 hands played in my comments.

Totals:

66.03% +1pt/+2pt
35.84% -2pts

Assuming 54 hands being accounted for, the above would read: 64.8% +1/+2pts and 35.2 -2 pts.

Total points: + 39 pts made, -38points given up

Your limited test result shows a value of +1, which translates to: + 1.8 points/ 100 hands.

------------------------------------------------

Q T 9 h, As + 9s
Here is the results if Seat 3 passes. Including euchres(+2), marches and loners made and single points. There were 40 times where points were made/taken for Seat 3s Team when seat 3 passed.

Total

made points (17) +1pt =17pts 42.5%
euchre/marches (6) +2pt =12pts 15%
Loners made (3) +4pt =12pts 7.5%
euchre's(against) (14) -2pt = -28pts 35%

Totals: 65% +1pts/+2pts/+4pts
35% -2pts

Total Points: +41 pts made, -28 pts given up = + 13 points

Your limited test result shows a value of + 13, which translates to: 32.5/100 hands, considerably more profitables than an order up decision.

Tbolt65
Edward
Tbolt65,

Having considered the results of your 2 tests I think there is enough expectation shown that leaves me with my usual decision to pass when this and other similar situations (eg: Q T 9h + As Ts, Q T 9h + Ac 9c) arise. However, I am wondering what has been your own usual course of action with similar hands at seat 3? And, does any of this thread discussion or information from your tests cause you to pause to reconsider? One other question for you sir. Is it usual that you want and expect your partner to lead trump (if he has one or more )on the first trick, if you order or make trump from seat 3?

Thks

irishwolf
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Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:11 pm

What is missing here is the Points S2/S4 scores, and subtracted from the +13. The dealer is going to be making points, I estimate (16% he has 2 trumps and sometimes when he has the JH (28%). Sometimes he will also get euchred but in total there will be negative points off setting the + 13. Probably, a breakeven.

Here is the results if Seat 3 passes. There were 40 times where points were made/taken for Seat 3s Team when seat 3 passed.

Total

made points (17) +1pt =17pts 42.5%
euchre/marches (6) +2pt =12pts 15%
Loners made (3) +4pt =12pts 7.5%
euchre's(against) (14) -2pt = -28pts 35%

Totals: 65% +1pts/+2pts/+4pts
35% -2pts

Total Points: +41 pts made, -28 pts given up = + 13 points

Your limited test result shows a value of + 13, which translates to: 32.5/100 hands, considerably more profitables than an order up decision.

irishwolf
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:33 pm

Unread post by irishwolf » Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:27 pm

If I have a partner and the score is 9 to 7/6 our favor, and S1 passes, it means he has Left guarded (or ace double). Based on that Order the JH up. We score points as the most Dealer will have is two trumps.

If Jack is up other than that, I am passes at all other scores. Reason is Dealer will have 2 or 3 trumps about 17% of the time. And he will have JH up with just one 47% of the time. It becomes almost a breakeven with the euchres against his loners he scores (about 10% of the time and euchres about 20%). Sweeps vs Donating is breakeven and does not matter.

"Here is something to think about. At various scores/situations and with dependable partners you can now order that right up knowing your partner has help for you. Something Wes and I have discussed."

Tbolt65

Tbolt65
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Unread post by Tbolt65 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:17 pm

justme wrote: ↑
Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:54 pm
Tbolt65 wrote: ↑
Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:08 am
Here is the results if Seat 3 had ordered: Q T 9 h, As + 9s

53 hands callable for Seat 3 when seat 3 was able to call.
There were 4 R1S2 calls and 2 R1S1 calls. With 1S1R1 call. Totaling 7 hands unplayable for Seat 3. .

(31) +1pt = 31pts 58.49%

(19) -2pt = -38pts 35.84%

(4) +2pt = +8pts 7.54%

In the above figures there is a discrepancy and a repetition. You indicated 53 callable hands, yet your breakdown shows 54 in total. As well, you are reporting 7 hands as unplayable, but you have 1 duplicate (2 R1S1 calls, 1 S1R1 call) I am assuming 54 hands played in my comments.

Yeah my mistake. I did count it twice. Should be 54



Totals:

66.03% +1pt/+2pt
35.84% -2pts

Assuming 54 hands being accounted for, the above would read: 64.8% +1/+2pts and 35.2 -2 pts.

Total points: + 39 pts made, -38points given up

Your limited test result shows a value of +1, which translates to: + 1.8 points/ 100 hands.

------------------------------------------------

Q T 9 h, As + 9s
Here is the results if Seat 3 passes. Including euchres(+2), marches and loners made and single points. There were 40 times where points were made/taken for Seat 3s Team when seat 3 passed.

Total

made points (17) +1pt =17pts 42.5%
euchre/marches (6) +2pt =12pts 15%
Loners made (3) +4pt =12pts 7.5%
euchre's(against) (14) -2pt = -28pts 35%

Totals: 65% +1pts/+2pts/+4pts
35% -2pts

Total Points: +41 pts made, -28 pts given up = + 13 points

Your limited test result shows a value of + 13, which translates to: 32.5/100 hands, considerably more profitables than an order up decision.

Tbolt65
Edward
Tbolt65,

Having considered the results of your 2 tests I think there is enough expectation shown that leaves me with my usual decision to pass when this and other similar situations (eg: Q T 9h + As Ts, Q T 9h + Ac 9c) arise. However, I am wondering what has been your own usual course of action with similar hands at seat 3? And, does any of this thread discussion or information from your tests cause you to pause to reconsider? One other question for you sir. Is it usual that you want and expect your partner to lead trump (if he has one or more )on the first trick, if you order or make trump from seat 3?

My normal course is is to pass and especially vs a dealer who picks up light. Has been my usual course of action. I do call in seat 3 more often when 1st seat is super weak. I honestly was open to see what the results bring. Mainly to show that there is high value to passing in various situations and opponents. I always want a trump lead to my 3rd seat orders, always. If no trump then an ace. If no ace then next.

Tbolt65
Edward


Thks

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:47 pm

irishwolf wrote: ↑
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:12 am
Thank you Ed for your efforts.

For me, doing enough hands, for both QH 10H 9H AS 9S, ANY card other than the JH up - I am not Passing at S3. I see a +EV for ordering. I see passing same as the "fable" of the WOLF & GRAPES.

Or as my Mother use to say, Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush!

Get your point and move on! Just me.

~IRISHWOLF
For now I'm in the call camp vs any upcard excluding the JH as well. I did a 100 hand sample of QhTh9hAs9s vs the worst possible upcard, the AH, and calling slightly won in what I called a statistical tie becuz I wasn't even close to reaching a 95% confidence interval: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=540 (See my 4/1 post).

So I'm kind've indifferent but Irishwofl's work puts me over the edge into the the call territory. Maybe I'll work on this hand some more down the road, but in general if I do 100 hands and am still not close to a 95% confidence interval, I'm giving up due to time constraints. I got too many other samples I have to work on that could achieve more meaningful results.
Last edited by Wes (aka the legend) on Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Wes (aka the legend)
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Unread post by Wes (aka the legend) » Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:50 pm

Tbolt65 wrote: ↑
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:17 pm
I always want a trump lead to my 3rd seat orders, always. If no trump then an ace. If no ace then next.[/color]

Tbolt65
Edward


Thks
If no ace, then I think S1 should be leading his cleanest suit to lower the odds as much as he can of his P getting overtrumped. E.G. if his P ordered up hearts from the 3rd Seat, and S1 has no trump or aces to lead, a singleton black card becomes the best lead.

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