Loner Round 1 Seat 1?
Posted: Sat May 23, 2020 5:39 pm
R1 S1 Score 0-0 1st game ever with these players
Up
Your hand in S1
Would you order?
Would you go Aone?
Up
Your hand in S1
Would you order?
Would you go Aone?
I made some mistakes with the number crunching. I fixed this post below. The blue numbers represent my corrections:Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 9:02 pmIf I did not go alone, I'd pass hoping to trap the dealer and if the dealer passed, I'd call Next for a relatively easy point. For those wondering how often the dealer will call if you pass such a strong hand, a decent approximation would be around 20% if we assume the dealer is always picking up with 3 trump or 2 trump+2 aces:
How often the dealer will have 3 trump:
(3C2 x 15C3)/18C5 = 1365/8568 = 15.93%
How often the dealer will have 2 trump + 2 aces:
(3C1 x 2C2 x 16C2)/18C5 = 360/8568 = 4.20%
4.20 + 15.93 = 20.13%
Wes (aka the legend) wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 9:02 pmIf I did not go alone, I'd pass hoping to trap the dealer and if the dealer passed, I'd call Next for a relatively easy point. For those wondering how often the dealer will call if you pass such a strong hand, a decent approximation would be around 18-19% if we assume the dealer is always picking up with 3 trump or 2 trump+2 aces:
How often the dealer will have 3 trump:
(3C2 x 15C3)/18C5 = 1365/8568 = 15.93%
How often the dealer will have 2 trump + 2 aces:
(3C1 x 2C2 x 13C2)/18C5 = 234/8568 = 2.73%
2.73 + 15.93 = 18.66%