Right +1 or Left +2?

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zegelekase
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:25 pm

Right +1 or Left +2?

Post by zegelekase » Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:45 pm

What factors should you consider before deciding whether to pass, order up a suit that gives you the right +1 other trump, or the left +2 other trump.

Example:

Upcard (QD) turned down, I am in S2 and hold JS,KS,AC,10C,9C and the bid comes around.



Richardb02
Posts: 379
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:38 pm

zegelekase wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:45 pm
What factors should you consider before deciding whether to pass, order up a suit that gives you the right +1 other trump, or the left +2 other trump.

Example:

Upcard (QD) turned down, I am in S2 and hold JS,KS,AC,10C,9C and the bid comes around.
Visually:
(Card_Q-D) Down, S2 R2
(Card_J-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C)
I use BPS, Bidding Point System, which you can find on this forum:
1.00 S2 R2 Reverse Next
1.00 Js, Right
0.50 Ks
0.25 Bower + 1
0.25 Tripleton Ace
0.75 2 Voids, 2 Suited
3.75 vs. 2.00 order, so order but what about ordering Clubs:

1.00 S2 R2 Reverse Next
0.50 Ac
0.25 Tc
0.25 9c
0.50 3 Trump, no bower
0.75 2 Voids
3.25 So BPS would recommend ordering Spades over trump

So specifically addressing your question, what factors should you consider:
0.75 S2 R2 BUT not Reverse Next
+.25 Reverse Next is stronger than Next from S2
1.00 Value of the Right
0.50 Value of A of trump
0.25 Value of 9 or T of trump
0.25 Value of trump Combinations, 0.25 for a protected bower
0.50 Value of 3 trump minimum
0.50 Value of a Next Ace Singleton or Doubleton
0.75 Value of 2 Voids (0.25 for 1 Void)
3.75 Total Value of the hand, the value of the sum of the parts
2.00 Minimum value to order from S2
So we evaluated 9 factors for this hand

I think that covers everything on this hand.
The BPS thread covers most hands using roughly 20 factors.
A simplified approach in this Beginner and Casual Player section reduces the number of factors to roughly 15.

The Bidding Point System is a systematic analysis of the factors that should be considered in ordering or passing a particular hand. Don’t let the numbers and the decimals scare you. It is harder to keep track of the weak and strong pluses and the weak and strong minuses in your head than adding 6 numbers. If you hate decimals that much, just multiply everything by 4! The strength of the BPS relative to this hand is comparing 2 Spades vs 3 Trump. The generality is that 3 trumps, trump (pun intended) 2 trump. But this is 3 weakest trump vs 2 of the 3 strongest trump comparison. It makes sense thAt RA is better than AT9. However, it is very easy to miss, especially during the excitement of the hand.

Wes (aka the legend)
Posts: 718
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:03 pm

Post by Wes (aka the legend) » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:34 pm

zegelekase wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:45 pm
What factors should you consider before deciding whether to pass, order up a suit that gives you the right +1 other trump, or the left +2 other trump.

Example:

Upcard (QD) turned down, I am in S2 and hold JS,KS,AC,10C,9C and the bid comes around.
You chose a bad example here becuz going alone in clubs clearly dominates all possible decisions. Not going alone in clubs with that holding would be downright criminal.

But I think I know what you're getting at. You're really talking about a hand like this:

(Card_Q-S) (Card_J-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-D)

Which way should you go? Call spades with R+1 and a dirty off ace or call clubs with L+A+T and no off aces. I suppose only a thorough simulation could really prove which path is best, but I go with clubs in that spot and will continue to do so unless I come across compelling evidence that suggests otherwise.

zegelekase
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:25 pm

Post by zegelekase » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:10 pm

Thanks Wes, and to you Richardb02.

Both responses were helpful.

I have tried bidding points systems and will look at the one referenced but I was looking for a general principal.

Richardb02
Posts: 379
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:23 pm

zegelekase wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:10 pm
Thanks Wes, and to you Richardb02.

Both responses were helpful.

I have tried bidding points systems and will look at the one referenced but I was looking for a general principal.
The simplified principal is R2 S2 Rx or Lxx is ORDER*
BUT:
Expect to be euchred up to 1/3rd of the time.
So make up your mind that you play to win the game,
Not the hand, and if you:
Win 67% of the time and lose 33% of the time, you come out ahead,
in the goal of winning the game. (A positive EV)

*R2 S2 Rx or Lxx translates into:
After everyone has passed, it is now Round 2 and the play is on you S2. If you have Rx, Right + another trump, or Lxx, Left + 2 other trumps then you have a 67% chance of earning at least 1 point and ordering is profitable. Keep in mind that you must expect to be euchred 1 out of every 3 hands and must be mentally prepared to accept those results. You must forget being euchred immediately and focus on the next hand.

zegelekase
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:25 pm

Post by zegelekase » Sun May 03, 2020 7:34 am

Richardb02 wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:23 pm
Expect to be euchred up to 1/3rd of the time.
So make up your mind that you play to win the game,
Not the hand, and if you:
That makes perfect sense. The key is to find a partner who understands it :-)

Richardb02
Posts: 379
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Sat May 16, 2020 6:19 pm

I have had dreams about this post. First let me correct the errors that Wes uncovered but was too kind to call me out on. A Clubs Loner from R2 S1 is his recommendation and the best order. My corrected BPS analysis agrees 100% with Wes.
Richardb02 wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:38 pm
zegelekase wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:45 pm
What factors should you consider before deciding whether to pass, order up a suit that gives you the right +1 other trump, or the left +2 other trump.

Example:

Upcard (QD) turned down, I am in S2 and hold JS,KS,AC,10C,9C and the bid comes around.
Visually:
(Card_Q-D) Down, S2 R2
(Card_J-S) (Card_K-S) (Card_A-C) (Card_10-C) (Card_9-C)
I use BPS, Bidding Point System, which you can find on this forum:
1.00 S2 R2 Reverse Next
1.00 Js, Right
0.50 Ks
0.25 Bower + 1
0.25 Tripleton Ace
0.75 2 Voids, 2 Suited
3.75 vs. 2.00 order, so order but what about ordering Clubs:

1.00 S2 R2 Reverse NexT
0.75 Js
0.50 Ac
0.25 Tc
0.25 9c
0.75 4 Trump and a bower
0.75 2 Voids
4.25 A full 1.00 above my erroneous OP. So well above 3.75, strongly consider a Loner. Above 4.00, go Alone with the only hesitation is if playing for 2 points is significantly advantageous. At 4.25 points, a Loner is nearly mandatory.

Richardb02
Posts: 379
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:57 pm
Location: Florida

Post by Richardb02 » Sun May 17, 2020 12:12 pm

zegelekase wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:45 pm
What factors should you consider before deciding whether to pass, order up a suit that gives you the right +1 other trump, or the left +2 other trump.

Example:

Upcard (QD) turned down, I am in S2 and hold JS,KS,AC,10C,9C and the bid comes around.
Now let’s try to find a hand that is so weak, that we should pass.Again (Card_Q-D) Down
R2 S2 Hand (Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_9-S) (Card_9-D) (Card_9-C)
BPS:
0.75 R2 S2 Next
1.00 Jh, Right
0.25 9h
0.25 Bower + 1
2.25 Total, which is above my 2.00 Edge order with no other factors. So ordering is appropriate. It will also get you euchred 1 out of every 3 hands based on my BPS system. So most players pass because they are more afraid of getting euchred and enduring the wrath of their partner and the scorn of their opponents, than playing winning Euchre. Winning Euchre requires taking chances, aka playing the probabilities. So the simple rule is order from R1 S2 With R+1. R1 S4 is even stronger, so order.

You may want to consider your partner. At 2.25, within 0.25 of an edge hand, that is a significant factor. If they are strong, or even just aggressive, then I would pass. BPS-Basic doesn’t exhaust every factor, so 2.00 minimum to 2.25 is a hand that can be decided on your intuition or further analyzed.

If I had off suit aces, or a void or 2, I would definitely order. BPS would be higher, 2.50 to 3.00, so I am very comfortable with a 74 to 83% expected rate of success and would order.

If I had jacks, I would consider passing. Jc or Js are the only jacks to be considered. If I had both, I would be ordering in Reverse Next.

If I had: (Card_J-H) (Card_9-H) (Card_J-C) (Card_9-D) (Card_9-S)
I would “de-rate” this hand by 0.50 to 0.75 and pass. The logic is that all S3 Loners are blocked. If P orders, I can definitely assist P. Opponents can only get 1 point, so why take a chance that we can get euchred and give up 2? I owe Wes a thank you for getting this through my brick head. I summarize what I have learned as, “Playing Aggressive-Offensive is very good, combining A-O with Aggressive-Defense is excellent.”

So having worked through the possibilities, for a general guideline, order from a R+1, R2 S2 scenario.

Score is another factor. If my team is at 9 and the Opponents are at 6 or less, I would loosen up. I add 0.25 to my hand.

STD, Stick the Dealer, is another factor. Again I loosen up. Using BPS I loosen up by adding 0.25 to my hand.

If Opponents have 8, that means that getting euchred costs us the game. I need to tighten my ordering. I subtract 0.25 from my hand.

For players that find BPS too limited to thoroughly analyze a hand, feel free to adjust 0.25 to 0.75 points based on your experience and intuition. Let the BPS handle the easily observable comparisons. That’s about 80% of the work. Add your skills to BPS for the judgement calls. That covers the other 20%.

What do you think?


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