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Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:10 pm
by irishwolf
1. The score is 8 to 9 their favor. The dealer just turned down the Queen of Clubs. You call next and lead Jack of Clubs.
What do you play next? JS AH AD A9D

My answer was lead the JS. Answer said this was incorrect.

I would like to take tissue with the site's answer being incorrect. First of all, the cards everyone played was not indicated. That has a bearing on the answer. If my partner is the only one with trump then yes, do not lead the JS. If only one opponent had trump on my JC, then again, I am not leading the other Jack.

Those are the only two exceptions to not leading the JS, statistically. Here is the rationale:

1) You have two trumps, there are five unknown. Statistically, if you lead both Jacks, only one of the three players will three trumps 9.1% of time. And one will be buried in the Stock 48% of the time.

2) However, with five unknown trumps one of the opponents will have two trumps 33% of the time and both opponents will have two two trumps 11% - NOTE - more often than one have 3 trumps.

3) If I lead both bowers, if one opponent has 3 trumps, so what. They now have to trump my 3rd lead of an Ace. The chance that they do not lead to my other ace is less than 50%. And if they lead clubs, I have a partner who more than likely has spades covered.

4) For me, I am going alone with this hand.

So where is the data that backs up the answer to the Quiz?

Irish Wolf


Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:10 am
by Richardb02
Let me recap the logic that I have gleaned from the website. Paraphrased:
You drew trump to play your green aces.
This test is based on average distribution of cards.
"You drew trump to play your green ace(s)," was guideline 1 for me to choose to bid. Guideline 2 is that an average distribution would indicate that Partner had a trump. Guideline 3, from me, you have to play the quiz by it's rules.
Now for the specific cases that you mentioned. With the score 8 to 9 I would not go alone because an extra trick from Partner could give our team 2 points and win the game.
You have to apply statistical analysis accurately. To quote you, "You have two trumps, there are five unknown." I suggest that you need to look at the situation after the 1st hand. (I'm assuming Partner had no aces). Now you have 1 trump, 4 are unknown, but you know that there are no trump in Partner's 4 cards. I'm confident further analysis would verify that your probabilities are much worse than the initial analysis. Playing the green ace could walk and you win. Or it will draw a trump, which is as much as you could hope for under the circumstances.
Thank you for the discussion.


Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:57 am
by Dlan
All the questions for the quiz were from polls found on another euchre forum. Only polls with a vast majority agreeing with the results (80% and over) were used for this quiz. Unfortunately, those polls and information have been lost.

Is the correct response play the hand alone, or take a possible safe route by holding a jack back? While it is hard to argue with your analysis of the hand, going by the poll, most players called for safe.

One of the main functions of the quiz was to encourage players to look at how they played a hand and consider other possibilities. To that end, the quiz has been successful.


Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:30 pm
by irishwolf
I respectfully disagree that you are playing it safe by holding back a Bower. One of the two opponents will, statistically speaking - 33% chance, have two trumps. I don't want to take the chance that he/she also has a void to my 3rd trick ace lead. If he does and leads what was turned down, and my partner does not have a trump I now have to 'waste' a bower to get back in the lead. And if both opponents happen to have two trumps (11% of the time) then they can trump my other ace. The best move is to play the other bower to the 2nd lead. This does not include that the dealer will not likely have two of what he turned down, he has to lead back into the other green ace if he has three trumps. If one opponent has three trumps (9%), so be it, a 2nd lead of trump still does not hurt you. You have two aces, my partner is more likely to hold what went down than the opponents.

If in doubt (but not for me) this can be easily verified by dealing out hands (100 at least) and playing it both ways. But the statistics on the best play can't be refuted. And this situation will pop up more than you think, so each should be confident in the next lead to trick 2.

Voting per the Polls on ES or anywhere does not proof a move is the best. Hands have to be statistically done or by dealing out a sufficient number of hands and played out to verified, or both. Further, we have already (or me) that this is similar to the Poll 100% voted that with 4 Jacks + 9s to pass(D's down). More points will be making Spades trump and by a big margin because you can't euchre the opponents more than 50% of the time with STD by passing, verified by doing over 200 hands. (Quiz #13 to Pass).

"...or take a possible safe route by holding a jack back? While it is hard to argue with your analysis of the hand, going by the poll, most players called for safe."

Anyway, it's all good!



Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:30 pm
by irishwolf
One more comment on this Quiz question #1.

So what does it take to euchre me if I lead both Jacks and hold the aces?

EUCHRED If one of the opponents has to have 3 trumps and two Clubs, headed by a commanding club. If his partner has the commanding club, he also has to have another one as well. That should not ever come from the Dealer unless he is bagging. Secondly, even one opponent with four trumps, has to have the 5th card as the commanding club. Both situations are statistically, very, very low.

And guess what, no matter if I hold the other Jack or lead it, I STILL GET EUCHRED. OVERALL - THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE TO HOLDING THE JACK!

The only advantage would would be if my partner had AS guarded, and one opponent had three trumps and 2 commanding clubs.

There are more potential possibilities of being euchred by Holding the 2nd Jack.




Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:14 pm
by Dlan
To avoid any further controversy I am changing question 1 to the following:

The score is 8 to 9 their favor. The dealer just turned down the Queen of Clubs. You call next and the lead Jack of Clubs. 2nd plays the 9 of Clubs, 3rd the 9 of Spades and dealer the Ace of Spades.

What do you lead next?

(Card_J-C) (Card_J-S) (Card_A-H) (Card_K-D) (Card_9-D)


Posted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:17 pm
by irishwolf